The Fed’s AI Dilemma: Long-Term Perspectives
The Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Romer once wrote that “economic growth springs from better recipes, not just from more cooking.”1 This key idea in economics is that raising our standard of living is not just about adding more workers or more equipment, but about enabling each worker to produce not only more goods and services, […]
What’s Driving Portfolios: The Impact of High Oil and Copper Prices
The 19th century geologist Charles Lyell popularized the concept of “uniformitarianism,” a long word that reflects the simple idea that the natural forces shaping the earth today are the same ones that have consistently affected it across history. A similar principle applies to commodities we extract from the ground like oil and copper. While there […]
Monthly Market Update for August 2026: Rising Yields, Strong Earnings, and Trade Uncertainty
August was another example of the idea that strong markets do not require a picture-perfect backdrop. While there continues to be uncertainty around oil prices, the Fed, new tariffs affecting global trade, and interest rates that are at their highest in decades, many positive factors drove broad market indices higher. For investors, the key takeaway […]
Tariff Refunds and the National Debt: What They Mean for Investors
Since new tariffs were announced last year, global trade has been a source of uncertainty for financial markets and the economy. In February, the Supreme Court ruled that the original “Liberation Day” tariffs were illegal, resulting in a wave of refunds to businesses that are now well underway.1 New tariffs have been implemented since then […]
What’s Driving Stocks, Bonds, and All-Time Highs
The stock market has climbed to new all-time highs following several periods of uncertainty this year. This is welcome news for investors, especially because many parts of the market have contributed to the rally, including sectors such as Energy, Information Technology, and Industrials. Interest rates are also near multi-decade highs, pushing bond yields to their […]
The Midterm Election and Long-Term Investing
With the November midterm election approaching, campaigns are starting to intensify across the country. Politics have only grown more divisive in recent decades, so it’s natural for investors to wonder whether the election should influence their financial decisions. More than ever, it’s important to separate our political views from investing, and not vote with our […]
Monthly Market Update for July 2026: AI Volatility, Rising Yields, and Middle East Tensions
Markets experienced a challenging environment in July with major indices ending the month slightly lower. However, this is in the context of healthy year-to-date gains and a broad market that is not far from its all-time high. A number of factors drove day-to-day market moves, including new concerns around AI investments, Treasury yields climbing toward […]
What Rising Real Yields Mean for Investors
Treasury rates have surged to their highest levels in recent years due to a combination of concerns around inflation, oil prices, the national debt, and the Fed. The 10-year Treasury yield is once again above 4.6% and the 30-year has been above 5% for the longest streak since 2007.1 In general, this is positive for […]
The AI Value Chain: Investor Perspectives on Data Centers, Semiconductors and More
In our modern world, computers and cell phones have become everyday necessities that are expected to simply work. Yet, there is unbelievable complexity behind not only the engineering that makes them possible, but also in the supply chains that allow millions of devices to be manufactured. Similarly, artificial intelligence (AI) may seem simple when using […]
The Role of Cash in a Portfolio
The baseball player Yogi Berra once said that “a nickel ain’t worth a dime anymore.” With inflation still elevated, many investors and consumers may be feeling this way as well. Not only are everyday costs higher due to energy prices, but short-term interest rates have fallen over the past two years. This means that investors […]