Monthly Market Update for August 2026: Rising Yields, Strong Earnings, and Trade Uncertainty

August was another example of the idea that strong markets do not require a picture-perfect backdrop. While there continues to be uncertainty around oil prices, the Fed, new tariffs affecting global trade, and interest rates that are at their highest in decades, many positive factors drove broad market indices higher.

For investors, the key takeaway is that short-term concerns are a normal part of markets. Rather than try to navigate each challenge, history shows that portfolios built around long-term goals are the best way to increase the probability of financial success. With this in mind, what drove markets in August, and what should investors keep in mind as they look ahead?

 

Key Market and Economic Drivers in August

  • The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.6%, 3.9%, and 1.3%, respectively, in August. Year-to-date, they have gained 12.3%, 13.5%, and 10.7%, respectively.
  • Volatility, as measured by the CBOE VIX index, dropped below the long-term average, ending the month at 16 after climbing as high as 21 the previous month.
  • International developed markets returned 1.8% based on the MSCI EAFE Index in U.S. dollar terms, while emerging markets returned 3.2% based on the MSCI EM Index.
  • The 30-year Treasury yield reached its highest level since 2007, closing the month at 5.24%. The 10-year Treasury yield ended the month at 4.75%. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index returned 0.4% for the month.
  • Oil prices hovered in a range in August after climbing the previous month. Brent crude closed the month at $90.68 per barrel and WTI near $86.27 per barrel.
  • The U.S. Dollar Index fell to 99.43 at the end of August. Gold ended the month at $4,437.38 per ounce while silver rose to $66.58 per ounce.
  • The revision to second quarter GDP remained unchanged at an annual rate of 1.5%.
  • The July jobs report missed expectations with a decline of -23,000 in payrolls compared to a forecasted gain of 80,000. Unemployment fell slightly to 4.1%.

 

Long-term yields are near multi-decade highs

One of the defining features of today’s investment environment is that interest rates have remained higher than many expected. The 30-year Treasury yield briefly surpassed 5.3% in August, a level not seen in almost 20 years. Similarly, the 10-year Treasury yield, around 4.8%, is close to its recent peak.1 This is important because, while interest rates can seem technical, they both affect and are a reflection of the economy.

Typically, higher rates are viewed as being negative for markets, but the key is that interest rates can rise for different reasons. While inflation drove rates higher over the past several years, more recent rate increases have occurred because “real yields” have improved. This is another way to say that inflation-adjusted yields are higher, reflecting the fact that the economy continues to be healthy, especially due to strong corporate earnings. In the long run, this is a positive signal for the overall health of the market, which is why interest rates and the stock market are near their peaks at the same time.

Looking forward, higher rates can also be positive for long-term investors because they create income opportunities across bond holdings. Of course, rising interest rates also weigh on the prices of existing bonds. This has caused major bond indices, such as the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, to remain flat this year. So, it’s important to interpret rising rates in the context of a well-balanced portfolio and relative to financial goals.

That said, inflation still remains higher than consumers and policymakers would like. The headline Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, for example, showed that inflation stood at 3.7% year-over-year in July, while core PCE rose 3.3%, both well above the Fed’s 2% target.2 At the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium in late August, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signaled that a rate hike could arrive sooner. For this reason, markets are now pricing in at least one rate hike this year, and possibly two by early next year.3

 

Corporate earnings are delivering broad-based growth

The S&P 500 reached new all-time highs in August, driven largely by strong corporate earnings. Results for the second quarter have come in well above expectations across a wide range of sectors, and consensus estimates now anticipate S&P 500 earnings to reach $349 per share at the end of the year. These same forecasts expect earnings-per-share growth of 15% each of the next two years as well, above the historical average of 7%.4

While these forecasts can change, they reflect growth driven by AI infrastructure buildouts, higher oil prices, and healthy growth across sectors. Specifically, ten of the eleven S&P 500 sectors reported year-over-year earnings growth, with nine reporting double-digit percentage gains. This breadth of earnings growth suggests that the overall economy, not just a narrow group of large companies, is contributing to corporate profitability.5

Strong corporate earnings are one reason that broad stock market valuations have remained steady over the past year. The S&P 500 price-to-earnings ratio has hovered around 20x, which is well above the historical average of 16x, but an improvement from recent peaks. While valuations do not predict what the market will do in the short run, they are important guides to allocating assets in the long run. In an environment of higher valuations, it’s important to stay balanced across sectors, asset classes, and geographies.

 

Trade tensions are still a source of uncertainty

Trade policy returned to the headlines in August as tensions with key trading partners such as Canada escalated. After last year’s “Liberation Day” tariffs were ruled to be illegal by the Supreme Court in February, new tariffs were implemented under different laws such as Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. However, those tariffs have now expired, so new ones have been implemented in their place under different trade laws, each with their own set of rules. At the same time, the government is now refunding the original “reciprocal tariffs” to businesses, with $129 billion already accepted for processing by U.S. Customs and Border Protection.6

As has been the case since early last year, the worst-case outcomes that many investors and economists feared have not occurred. This is largely because companies have adapted their supply chains, adjusted pricing strategies, and managed costs in reaction to these tariffs, muting the effect on inflation from higher intermediate prices. Still, tariffs will likely remain a source of uncertainty for global markets in the coming years.

 

The bottom line?

August demonstrated the importance of staying balanced and not overreacting to headlines. Despite periods of volatility, strong corporate earnings and attractive bond yields continue to support long-term portfolios.

 

 

References

  1. https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics
  2. https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-july-2026
  3. https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
  4. Clearnomics research and LSEG data as of August 31, 2026
  5. https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-update-august-7-2026
  6. https://www.cbp.gov/trade/programs-administration/trade-remedies/ieepa-duty-refunds

 

Index Descriptions S&P 500

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

Dow Jones

The Dow Jones Industrial Average consists of 30 stocks that are major factors in their industries and widely held by individuals and institutional investors.

NASDAQ

The NASDAQ Composite Index measures all NASDAQ domestic and non-U.S. based common stocks listed on The NASDAQ Stock Market. The market value, the last sale price multiplied by total shares outstanding, is calculated throughout the trading day, and is related to the total value of the Index.

MSCI Emerging Markets Index

The MSCI EM (Emerging Markets) Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization weighted index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of the emerging market countries of the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Asia. The MSCI EM Index consists of the following emerging market country indices: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, Czech Republic, Egypt, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Qatar, Russia, South Africa, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, China, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan, and Thailand.

MSCI EAFE Index

The MSCI EAFE Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the US & Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of the following developed country indices: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the UK.

Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index

The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is an index of the U.S. investment-grade fixed-rate bond market, including both government and corporate bonds.

DXY

The DXY is a U.S. dollar index based on a basket of currencies, including the Euro, Yen, Pound, Canadian Dollar, Swedish Krona and Swiss Franc.

 

Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested in directly.

All investing involves risk, including loss of principal. No strategy assures success or protects against loss. The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted, and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.

Copyright (c) 2026 Clearnomics, Inc. All rights reserved. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the other information provided are subject to change without notice. All reports posted on or via www.clearnomics.com or any affiliated websites, applications, or services are issued without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific recipient and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future results. Company fundamentals and earnings may be mentioned occasionally, but should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the company’s stock. Predictions, forecasts, and estimates for any and all markets should not be construed as recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security–including mutual funds, futures contracts, and exchange traded funds, or any similar instruments. The text, images, and other materials contained or displayed in this report are proprietary to Clearnomics, Inc. and constitute valuable intellectual property. All unauthorized reproduction or other use of material from Clearnomics, Inc. shall be deemed willful infringement(s) of this copyright and other proprietary and intellectual property rights, including but not limited to, rights of privacy. Clearnomics, Inc. expressly reserves all rights in connection with its intellectual property, including without limitation the right to block the transfer of its products and services and/or to track usage thereof, through electronic tracking technology, and all other lawful means, now known or hereafter devised. Clearnomics, Inc. reserves the right, without further notice, to pursue to the fullest extent allowed by the law any and all criminal and civil remedies for the violation of its rights.

 

Share This:

Facebook
Twitter
LinkedIn

Connect

Connecting with Vertex Planning Partners is your first step towards a tailored financial future. Reach out to discuss guidance that aligns with your unique financial goals and aspirations.

Connect With Us

Schedule a meeting with a  Vertex Planning Partner Advisor who will answer any questions you might have. 

p: 630.836.3300 – e: in**@************rs.com

We’re here to help. Email or call us and speak with a Vertex Planning Partner Advisor who will answer any questions you might have: 630.836.3300 or in**@************rs.com

Download our Independent Advisors eBook

Enter your email to download our Independent Advisors eBook and unlock the secrets to a tailored financial future.

Download our PATH eBook

Enter your email to download our PATH eBook and unlock the secrets to a tailored financial future.

Peter M. Babilla, CFP®, CRPS®

PARTNER

Peter Babilla brings 40 years of experience in investment management and fiduciary* financial consulting to Vertex Planning Partners, LLC.

Pete graduated from Indiana University in Bloomington, Indiana with a Bachelor’s of Science in Finance.

He began his career in 1983 with a focus on institutional fixed-income portfolio management, primarily working with community banks. After a decade serving institutional clients, Pete shifted his focus to working with individuals, families and business owners, providing guidance and education in all areas of Wealth Management.  Among his areas of focus are accumulation and retirement planning, investment management, risk management, and estate and wealth transfer.

Pete’s planning philosophy allows him to create a personalized program for clients, based on their own unique goals and circumstances.  The extensive investment and planning platform offered by Vertex enables him to create a highly customized program, tailored to each individual client.

Pete and his wife Suzanne have two children, and have resided in Wheaton, Illinois for the past 30 years.  He enjoys golf, reading, and traveling with his family.  Pete gives back as a past Board Member of the Epilepsy Foundation of Greater Chicago, where his focus is on improving the lives of those living with epilepsy.

Pete works as fiduciary for his clients and holds the CERTIFIED FIANANCIAL PLANNER™ (CFP®) designation and the Chartered Retirement Plan Specialist (CRPS®) designation.

Justin J. D'Agostino, CPWA®, CFP® , TPCP®, ChFC®, CRPC®

PARTNER

Justin D’Agostino is a Partner and Private Wealth Advisor at Vertex Planning Partners, advising business owners, executives, and high-net-worth families on investments, financial planning, tax and succession planning.

He coordinates the full advisory team around each client to keep tax, investment, and planning decisions moving in the same direction. Justin’s approach centers on rigorous, data-driven analysis — modeling outcomes across planning scenarios so clients can make decisions with clarity.

With over a decade of experience, Justin’s work focuses on:

  • Investment & Portfolio Strategy
  • Tax-Efficient Planning
  • Equity Compensation & Concentrated Stock
  • Retirement & Distribution Planning
  • Estate & Succession Planning

Justin attended Hillsdale College, where he earned his BA in Accounting and Financial Management. He is an avid sports fan and enjoys spending weekends with his family.

Designations:

  • Certified Private Wealth Advisor®
  • CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ Professional
  • Tax Planning Certified Professional®
  • Chartered Financial Consultant®
  • Chartered Retirement Planning Counselor™

 

Justin does not provide tax or legal advice. He works alongside each client’s CPA and attorney on those matters.

CRPC conferred by College for Financial Planning.

Scott A. Sandee CFP®, CIMA®, CPWA®, CEPA

MANAGING PARTNER

Scott Sandee brings over 20 years of experience to his role as Managing Partner of Vertex Planning Partners, leading the firm’s efforts to assist middle-market business owners and eight and nine-figure families in comprehensive planning. We enable clients to achieve their financial goals by tailoring solutions to their unique aspirations and situations. Leveraging his experience in sophisticated investment techniques and financial strategies with privately held family businesses, supported by extensive post-graduate education focused on exit planning, wealth management, estate planning, investment analysis, insurance planning, risk management, and tax optimization, he:

  • Assist owners in preparing for and executing a successful transition.
  • Develop financial strategies to maximize sales proceeds and reduce future taxes.
  • Listen carefully and create personalized solutions that reflect each client’s unique hopes, goals, and concerns.
  • Explain complex and technical concepts with clarity and simplicity.

 

Scott guides successful entrepreneurs and wealthy families through the transfer of ownership of their privately held companies.

Designations: Certified Financial Planner® Certified Private Wealth Advisor® Certified Investment Management Analyst® Certified Exit Planning Advisor Certified Merger & Acquisition Advisor

Julie Hupp CFP®, MBA

PARTNER

Julie Hupp, CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional, has worked in the accounting and corporate finance field since 1987. She began her career as a CPA with Deloitte & Touche, specializing in the financial needs of small businesses. Then spent the next 13 years in corporate financial planning and business development at Baxter and TAP Pharmaceuticals. Recognizing her passion for personal financial planning, Julie started her business in 2006 where she focuses on comprehensive financial planning strategies and implementation.

Julie graduated from University of Illinois with a BS in Accountancy. She received her Master’s in Management with a concentration in Finance from Northwestern University’s Kellogg School of Management in 1994.

Outside the office, Julie is the co-founder of the 12 Oaks Foundation, which has merged with Cal’s Angels, and is a former Board member. Julie enjoys cooking, reading, running, triathlons and doing almost anything outdoors. A great weekend is spending time with her husband and two adult kids boating at their lake house in Wisconsin.

Steven P. Franzen, CPA, PFS, CGMA

MANAGING PARTNER

Steven P. Franzen, CPA, PFS, CGMA is a public accountant and consultant with more than 23 years of experience helping individuals and businesses reduce their tax liability.  He began his career under the guidance of Patrick M. De Sio, CPA, CGMA and in 1996 became Mr. De Sio’s partner in De Sio, Franzen & Associates, Ltd. Steve’s expertise include entity design, complex tax strategies and multigenerational wealth transfer.  As Managing Partner, Steve conducts his practice under the philosophy that the client’s investment in their CPA should yield a return on that investment – most of the time that return is realized when working with clients on planning for their future. In an effort to increase the planning capabilities of the firm,  Steve formed Vertex Accounting Partners, LLC to ensure their guiding philosophy will continue well into the future.

Steve is a certified public accountant and has earned the professional designations of Personal Financial Specialist and Chartered Global Management Accountant.  He is a member of the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants and the Illinois CPA Society.  Steve earned a B.S. degree in accounting from Millikin University.  He and his wife Kristie live in Sugar Grove, IL with their three children.

Gregory P. Benner, MST, CPWA®, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC®, AIF®, RMA®

MANAGING PARTNER

Greg Benner advises high-net-worth and ultra-high-net-worth business owners, individuals and families on advanced tax, risk management, retirement, estate planning, and wealth strategies.  

As a co-founder of Vertex Planning Partners, he works closely with clients, families, and their professional advisors—CPAs, attorneys, and business stakeholders—to implement thoughtful, durable planning strategies. His approach prioritizes clarity, coordination, and disciplined execution.

For twenty-four years, Greg’s work has focused on designing and coordinating multi-factor, integrated plans involving:

  • Tax Efficiency
  • Wealth Transfer Structures
  • Retirement Planning
  • Investment Strategy, and
  • Long-Term Financial Architecture

 

Drawing from his own experience as a founder, business and real estate investor, and multi-generational family business member, he understands some of the challenges that can arise for business owners as they consider an exit. Multi-disciplinary, intentional planning with stakeholder communication creates structure, mitigates risk, addresses tax implications, and preempts issues that can arise.

Greg holds a Master of Science in Taxation, a graduate program that deepened his technical training in federal income taxation, partnership and corporate taxation, estate and gift tax, and tax procedure. This academic work enhances his ability to help families and business owners navigate complex tax environments and align their financial and estate-planning objectives across generations.

Designations:

  • Certified Private Wealth Advisor®
  • Certified Financial Planner®
  • Chartered Financial Consultant®
  • Chartered Life Underwriter®
  • Accredited Investment Fiduciary®
  • Retirement Management Advisor®

 

Licenses:

  • Series 65 registration held with Vertex Planning Partners, LLC
    Illinois, Ohio, Wisconsin & Louisiana Life & Health Insurance License

 

Greg is deeply committed to lifelong learning and continuous professional development in the areas of tax, estate planning, and private-wealth strategy.

Michael D. Bellis, CFP®, CLU®

MANAGING PARTNER

Michael D. Bellis, CFP®, CLU® began his career as a financial planning professional in 1994. His practice is centered on holistic financial planning, astute risk management strategies and empirical, research-driven portfolio construction. He began his career in partnership with his father under the name Bellis & Associates. Together, their practice and reputation for excellence dates back more than 40 years and includes multiple generations of the same families. After his father’s retirement several years ago, Mike continued to build a client-centric, consultative practice before forming Vertex.

Mike holds the CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ certification and is also a Chartered Life Underwriter. He has been an active member of both the Society of Financial Services Professionals and the National Association of Insurance and Financial Advisors. He earned a B.S. in Business & Marketing from Illinois State University. Mike is a lifelong resident of Naperville, Illinois. He and his wife Tanja have three children.