What’s Driving Stocks, Bonds, and All-Time Highs

The stock market has climbed to new all-time highs following several periods of uncertainty this year. This is welcome news for investors, especially because many parts of the market have contributed to the rally, including sectors such as Energy, Information Technology, and Industrials. Interest rates are also near multi-decade highs, pushing bond yields to their most attractive levels in years. At the same time, investors should always be prepared for periods of volatility, which the past few years have shown can occur at any time.

For long-term investors, rising stock prices and higher yields create an environment that requires careful portfolio balance. On the surface, it can seem contradictory for stocks to reach records while interest rates stay high, since rising rates can often slow the economy. However, if both stocks and bonds are being supported by positive trends, long-term portfolios can in turn support financial goals. How should investors think about this environment as markets sit near record levels?

 

Stocks and bonds support portfolio balance, but in different ways

The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average have all generated double digit-total returns this year.1 There are important themes driving markets on the surface, influencing which parts of the market have contributed to these returns. Perhaps the most visible are that artificial intelligence continues to drive technology stocks, and the energy sector has been supported by higher oil prices. These are the factors most often cited in the headlines, and they help explain why major indices have reached new highs.

Another important factor is that corporate earnings have grown at a historic pace, providing a fundamental foundation for the rally. In the long run, economic growth helps to drive corporate profits, which then pushes stock prices higher.

Interestingly, corporate profits have increased significantly in recent years, despite modest economic growth. Current forecasts suggest that the S&P 500 could reach an earnings-per-share figure of $347 this year, representing an annual growth rate of over 30%. This growth rate, if achieved, would be well above the historical average of around 8%.2

However, there is another important driver of the recent rally in the S&P 500: the Fed and interest rates. In the short run, markets can be highly sensitive to expectations around Fed policy. This is because interest rates play an important role in calculating the price of stocks today based on cash flows in the future. Since oil prices began to rise earlier this year, markets have expected the Fed to hike rates to combat inflation. Given the recent cooling of the labor market and steady inflation readings, these expectations have declined, with only one quarter-point hike priced in by next January.

The key to understanding the impact across stocks and bonds is that interest rates can rise for different reasons. Rates that rise because of inflation concerns can act as a drag on both asset classes, as they did in 2022 when the Fed tightened policy aggressively. However, rates can also rise because economic growth expectations are improving, which pushes up what are known as “real rates,” or the interest rate after accounting for inflation.3 Stronger real rates help support market valuations through improved earnings, while also offering bond investors more attractive yields.

This helps explain why stocks have continued to climb even as rates remain elevated. The chart above shows the relationship between stock and bond returns over the past few decades, including the long periods in which both asset classes perform well during economic expansions. For investors, the lesson is not to try to predict market returns or interest rates, but to hold a portfolio that can benefit from the strengths of each.

 

Waiting for pullbacks is often counterproductive

With markets near all-time highs, a natural question for many investors is whether they should make portfolio adjustments, or wait before getting invested. History shows that since the economy and markets tend to grow over the long term, trying to time these movements can be counterproductive, and the opportunity cost of waiting is often higher than simply getting invested.

The chart above shows that waiting for the perfect entry point often doesn’t work. For example, an investor waiting for a 5% pullback before investing would have waited 291 days on average. During that time, the market would have already gained nearly 14%. So, even though pullbacks of 5% or worse do occur periodically, and each time is different, the fact that the market tends to rise over time means the next dip is often higher than the last. In other words, the investor who waited would frequently have been better off simply staying invested from the start.

This is not to say that markets move in straight lines, or that pullbacks do not occur. Rather, it reinforces that new all-time highs are a normal part of bull markets, and the best way to achieve long-term goals is often to simply hold onto a well-constructed portfolio.

Of course, there are other strategies for those who need to improve their asset allocations. For example, for those who need to invest a lump sum at these valuations, approaches such as dollar-cost averaging can be helpful. Similarly, balancing a portfolio across different sectors, styles, factors, and geographies can help to reduce exposure to areas of the market with high valuations, while allowing investors to benefit from potential growth.

 

Bond yields drive long-term fixed income returns

While the stock market has performed well this year, bonds have been flat due to rising interest rates. Bond prices move in the opposite direction of yields, so higher rates mean that existing bonds are less valuable. However, it’s also the case that investors benefit when they can reinvest in bonds at higher yields, or adjust their portfolios to take advantage of them, if it’s appropriate for their financial plans.

The chart above shows that the starting yield of a bond is an important part of long run returns. At the moment, bond yields have rarely been more attractive over the past two decades. Investment grade corporate bonds and Treasury securities are now offering income levels that were difficult to find during the years following the global financial crisis, when interest rates were held near zero.4 For investors who rely on their portfolios for income, or who are simply looking to balance the risk of equities, this creates greater opportunities across fixed income than have existed in many years.

So, while higher rates can weigh on bond prices, they also mean that bonds can play an important role in portfolios. When combined with stock market trends that have helped portfolios this year, these asset classes can support the financial goals of long-term investors.

 

Stocks have benefited from growth trends while bond yields are historically attractive, creating opportunities across both asset classes. For long-term investors, maintaining a balanced portfolio is the best way to benefit from this environment while staying focused on financial goals.

 

References

  1. Standard & Poor’s and Nasdaq as of August 14, 2026
  2. Clearnomics research using Standard & Poor’s and LSEG data, as of August 14, 2026
  3. https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates
  4. Clearnomics research and Bloomberg data, as of August 14, 2026

 

Index Descriptions S&P 500

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

Dow Jones

The Dow Jones Industrial Average consists of 30 stocks that are major factors in their industries and widely held by individuals and institutional investors.

NASDAQ

The NASDAQ Composite Index measures all NASDAQ domestic and non-U.S. based common stocks listed on The NASDAQ Stock Market. The market value, the last sale price multiplied by total shares outstanding, is calculated throughout the trading day, and is related to the total value of the Index.

Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index

The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is an index of the U.S. investment-grade fixed-rate bond market, including both government and corporate bonds.

 

Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested in directly.

All investing involves risk, including loss of principal. No strategy assures success or protects against loss. The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted, and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.

Copyright (c) 2026 Clearnomics, Inc. All rights reserved. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the other information provided are subject to change without notice. All reports posted on or via www.clearnomics.com or any affiliated websites, applications, or services are issued without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific recipient and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future results. Company fundamentals and earnings may be mentioned occasionally, but should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the company’s stock. Predictions, forecasts, and estimates for any and all markets should not be construed as recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security–including mutual funds, futures contracts, and exchange traded funds, or any similar instruments. The text, images, and other materials contained or displayed in this report are proprietary to Clearnomics, Inc. and constitute valuable intellectual property. All unauthorized reproduction or other use of material from Clearnomics, Inc. shall be deemed willful infringement(s) of this copyright and other proprietary and intellectual property rights, including but not limited to, rights of privacy. Clearnomics, Inc. expressly reserves all rights in connection with its intellectual property, including without limitation the right to block the transfer of its products and services and/or to track usage thereof, through electronic tracking technology, and all other lawful means, now known or hereafter devised. Clearnomics, Inc. reserves the right, without further notice, to pursue to the fullest extent allowed by the law any and all criminal and civil remedies for the violation of its rights.

 

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Peter M. Babilla, CFP®, CRPS®

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Peter Babilla brings 40 years of experience in investment management and fiduciary* financial consulting to Vertex Planning Partners, LLC.

Pete graduated from Indiana University in Bloomington, Indiana with a Bachelor’s of Science in Finance.

He began his career in 1983 with a focus on institutional fixed-income portfolio management, primarily working with community banks. After a decade serving institutional clients, Pete shifted his focus to working with individuals, families and business owners, providing guidance and education in all areas of Wealth Management.  Among his areas of focus are accumulation and retirement planning, investment management, risk management, and estate and wealth transfer.

Pete’s planning philosophy allows him to create a personalized program for clients, based on their own unique goals and circumstances.  The extensive investment and planning platform offered by Vertex enables him to create a highly customized program, tailored to each individual client.

Pete and his wife Suzanne have two children, and have resided in Wheaton, Illinois for the past 30 years.  He enjoys golf, reading, and traveling with his family.  Pete gives back as a past Board Member of the Epilepsy Foundation of Greater Chicago, where his focus is on improving the lives of those living with epilepsy.

Pete works as fiduciary for his clients and holds the CERTIFIED FIANANCIAL PLANNER™ (CFP®) designation and the Chartered Retirement Plan Specialist (CRPS®) designation.

Justin J. D'Agostino, CPWA®, CFP® , TPCP®, ChFC®, CRPC®

PARTNER

Justin D’Agostino is a Partner and Private Wealth Advisor at Vertex Planning Partners, advising business owners, executives, and high-net-worth families on investments, financial planning, tax and succession planning.

He coordinates the full advisory team around each client to keep tax, investment, and planning decisions moving in the same direction. Justin’s approach centers on rigorous, data-driven analysis — modeling outcomes across planning scenarios so clients can make decisions with clarity.

With over a decade of experience, Justin’s work focuses on:

  • Investment & Portfolio Strategy
  • Tax-Efficient Planning
  • Equity Compensation & Concentrated Stock
  • Retirement & Distribution Planning
  • Estate & Succession Planning

Justin attended Hillsdale College, where he earned his BA in Accounting and Financial Management. He is an avid sports fan and enjoys spending weekends with his family.

Designations:

  • Certified Private Wealth Advisor®
  • CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ Professional
  • Tax Planning Certified Professional®
  • Chartered Financial Consultant®
  • Chartered Retirement Planning Counselor™

 

Justin does not provide tax or legal advice. He works alongside each client’s CPA and attorney on those matters.

CRPC conferred by College for Financial Planning.

Scott A. Sandee CFP®, CIMA®, CPWA®, CEPA

MANAGING PARTNER

Scott Sandee brings over 20 years of experience to his role as Managing Partner of Vertex Planning Partners, leading the firm’s efforts to assist middle-market business owners and eight and nine-figure families in comprehensive planning. We enable clients to achieve their financial goals by tailoring solutions to their unique aspirations and situations. Leveraging his experience in sophisticated investment techniques and financial strategies with privately held family businesses, supported by extensive post-graduate education focused on exit planning, wealth management, estate planning, investment analysis, insurance planning, risk management, and tax optimization, he:

  • Assist owners in preparing for and executing a successful transition.
  • Develop financial strategies to maximize sales proceeds and reduce future taxes.
  • Listen carefully and create personalized solutions that reflect each client’s unique hopes, goals, and concerns.
  • Explain complex and technical concepts with clarity and simplicity.

 

Scott guides successful entrepreneurs and wealthy families through the transfer of ownership of their privately held companies.

Designations: Certified Financial Planner® Certified Private Wealth Advisor® Certified Investment Management Analyst® Certified Exit Planning Advisor Certified Merger & Acquisition Advisor

Julie Hupp CFP®, MBA

PARTNER

Julie Hupp, CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional, has worked in the accounting and corporate finance field since 1987. She began her career as a CPA with Deloitte & Touche, specializing in the financial needs of small businesses. Then spent the next 13 years in corporate financial planning and business development at Baxter and TAP Pharmaceuticals. Recognizing her passion for personal financial planning, Julie started her business in 2006 where she focuses on comprehensive financial planning strategies and implementation.

Julie graduated from University of Illinois with a BS in Accountancy. She received her Master’s in Management with a concentration in Finance from Northwestern University’s Kellogg School of Management in 1994.

Outside the office, Julie is the co-founder of the 12 Oaks Foundation, which has merged with Cal’s Angels, and is a former Board member. Julie enjoys cooking, reading, running, triathlons and doing almost anything outdoors. A great weekend is spending time with her husband and two adult kids boating at their lake house in Wisconsin.

Steven P. Franzen, CPA, PFS, CGMA

MANAGING PARTNER

Steven P. Franzen, CPA, PFS, CGMA is a public accountant and consultant with more than 23 years of experience helping individuals and businesses reduce their tax liability.  He began his career under the guidance of Patrick M. De Sio, CPA, CGMA and in 1996 became Mr. De Sio’s partner in De Sio, Franzen & Associates, Ltd. Steve’s expertise include entity design, complex tax strategies and multigenerational wealth transfer.  As Managing Partner, Steve conducts his practice under the philosophy that the client’s investment in their CPA should yield a return on that investment – most of the time that return is realized when working with clients on planning for their future. In an effort to increase the planning capabilities of the firm,  Steve formed Vertex Accounting Partners, LLC to ensure their guiding philosophy will continue well into the future.

Steve is a certified public accountant and has earned the professional designations of Personal Financial Specialist and Chartered Global Management Accountant.  He is a member of the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants and the Illinois CPA Society.  Steve earned a B.S. degree in accounting from Millikin University.  He and his wife Kristie live in Sugar Grove, IL with their three children.

Gregory P. Benner, MST, CPWA®, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC®, AIF®, RMA®

MANAGING PARTNER

Greg Benner advises high-net-worth and ultra-high-net-worth business owners, individuals and families on advanced tax, risk management, retirement, estate planning, and wealth strategies.  

As a co-founder of Vertex Planning Partners, he works closely with clients, families, and their professional advisors—CPAs, attorneys, and business stakeholders—to implement thoughtful, durable planning strategies. His approach prioritizes clarity, coordination, and disciplined execution.

For twenty-four years, Greg’s work has focused on designing and coordinating multi-factor, integrated plans involving:

  • Tax Efficiency
  • Wealth Transfer Structures
  • Retirement Planning
  • Investment Strategy, and
  • Long-Term Financial Architecture

 

Drawing from his own experience as a founder, business and real estate investor, and multi-generational family business member, he understands some of the challenges that can arise for business owners as they consider an exit. Multi-disciplinary, intentional planning with stakeholder communication creates structure, mitigates risk, addresses tax implications, and preempts issues that can arise.

Greg holds a Master of Science in Taxation, a graduate program that deepened his technical training in federal income taxation, partnership and corporate taxation, estate and gift tax, and tax procedure. This academic work enhances his ability to help families and business owners navigate complex tax environments and align their financial and estate-planning objectives across generations.

Designations:

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  • Certified Financial Planner®
  • Chartered Financial Consultant®
  • Chartered Life Underwriter®
  • Accredited Investment Fiduciary®
  • Retirement Management Advisor®

 

Licenses:

  • Series 65 registration held with Vertex Planning Partners, LLC
    Illinois, Ohio, Wisconsin & Louisiana Life & Health Insurance License

 

Greg is deeply committed to lifelong learning and continuous professional development in the areas of tax, estate planning, and private-wealth strategy.

Michael D. Bellis, CFP®, CLU®

MANAGING PARTNER

Michael D. Bellis, CFP®, CLU® began his career as a financial planning professional in 1994. His practice is centered on holistic financial planning, astute risk management strategies and empirical, research-driven portfolio construction. He began his career in partnership with his father under the name Bellis & Associates. Together, their practice and reputation for excellence dates back more than 40 years and includes multiple generations of the same families. After his father’s retirement several years ago, Mike continued to build a client-centric, consultative practice before forming Vertex.

Mike holds the CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ certification and is also a Chartered Life Underwriter. He has been an active member of both the Society of Financial Services Professionals and the National Association of Insurance and Financial Advisors. He earned a B.S. in Business & Marketing from Illinois State University. Mike is a lifelong resident of Naperville, Illinois. He and his wife Tanja have three children.