What’s Driving Portfolios: The Impact of High Oil and Copper Prices

The 19th century geologist Charles Lyell popularized the concept of “uniformitarianism,” a long word that reflects the simple idea that the natural forces shaping the earth today are the same ones that have consistently affected it across history. A similar principle applies to commodities we extract from the ground like oil and copper. While there are events like wars, tariffs, and AI impacting commodity prices at the moment, ultimately it’s supply and demand that always drives these markets in the long run.

As an asset class, commodities have not only outperformed this year, but have also supported other areas of the market such as U.S. stocks. Commodities are closely followed due to their sensitivity to economic conditions as well. Oil prices have swung from month to month, copper has climbed to new record highs, and precious metals surged to all-time highs at the start of the year before pulling back. Short-term price swings in the commodity market are not unusual, and the forces behind them, including geopolitics, tariffs, and changing economic trends, are difficult to predict.

The important question for investors is not where oil or copper will trade next week, but what supply and demand tell us about the broader economy, long run trends, and how they interact with a well-constructed portfolio. Commodities can serve as indicators of global conditions, and their volatility is a natural part of how they function. How can investors maintain perspective when commodity markets are moving sharply?

 

Oil prices remain tied to geopolitical uncertainty

Oil markets have fluctuated dramatically this year, which shows both how sensitive they can be to global events, and also how difficult it can be to forecast commodity prices. Oil jumped to multi-year highs back in March when the war in Iran began. Since then, Brent crude has oscillated from as low as $72 per barrel at the start of July back toward $100 as of today, touching a seven-week high.

The primary driver of these swings is the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which has continued despite multiple ceasefire attempts and failed peace negotiations. Most recently, the Houthis, a group of militants in Yemen, conducted strikes on Saudi Arabian energy infrastructure, raising new concerns about regional supply disruptions and pushing Brent crude back toward $100 per barrel.

While the Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf to the rest of the world, is still the main focus in energy markets, Houthi forces have continued to target the Bab al-Mandab Strait, another important transportation chokepoint. Since it sits at the southern entrance to the Red Sea, it is an increasingly vital route for Saudi oil exports. All told, hostilities across the Middle East region have made the shipping of oil extremely fragile.

For everyday consumers, these moves translate directly into prices at the pump. The national average for regular grade gasoline has hovered around $4.15 per gallon according to AAA, and over $5.00 per gallon for premium, levels that have kept energy costs elevated and headline inflation higher than policymakers would prefer.1 This has affected inflation numbers all year since the energy component comprises over 7% of the total Consumer Price Index.2

From a historical perspective, oil price volatility of this kind is not unusual. During the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, for instance, Brent crude surpassed $120 per barrel before declining sharply. In the mid-2000s, oil stayed around $100 for several years as global demand grew rapidly ahead of the financial crisis. Today, it’s clear that high oil prices are primarily due to geopolitics, not an overheating economy per se. Additionally, with the U.S. now producing more than 13.8 million barrels per day, it is somewhat more insulated from shocks than in the past.3

 

Copper reflects both trade policy and long-term structural demand

While oil has been the biggest commodity story this year, copper has also reached its own record highs. Investors often use the term “Dr. Copper” to refer to the metal, since it can be perceived as a forward-looking economic indicator. This is because copper has a wide array of industrial uses, from building construction and energy, to electronics and transportation.

The latest jump in copper prices is primarily driven by two factors: tariff concerns with tight supply, and long-term structural demand from trends such as AI data centers. When it comes to tariffs, there are concerns about the possibility of new U.S. import duties on refined copper. It may seem unusual that the U.S. would impose additional tariffs on copper given how important it is, but the administration’s goal is exactly to promote domestic production for national security reasons. These tariffs are being explored under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, which is meant to target foreign reliance on sensitive goods.4 These issues, along with tight supplies and slower production, have driven copper prices higher.

At the same time, demand for copper has jumped as well. AI data centers, for instance, naturally use thousands of tons of copper.5 Not only is copper a critical component in power delivery systems, including electrical wiring, it is very efficient at transferring heat. This makes it a critical part of the infrastructure needed for keeping large data centers and thousands of semiconductor chips cool. As the “hyperscalers” continue to build out larger data centers, more and more copper has been needed.

Like most commodities, prices and demand can react quickly, but it takes a long time to bring new production online. This naturally leads to large swings in prices. While copper is different from precious metals, there are parallels with the large rallies and pullbacks in gold and silver at the beginning of the year. What’s true across all of these metals is the need to maintain a longer-term perspective and not overreact to near-term moves.

 

Commodities are best viewed in a portfolio context

What matters for long-term investors is what these commodities signal about the broader economic environment, and how these assets behave within the context of a diversified portfolio.

Year-to-date, the Bloomberg Commodity Index is the leading asset class, reflecting high oil prices, as well as the supply and demand dynamics for other metals and materials. The chart above shows how volatile commodities can be, with the asset class outperforming in some years and underperforming in many others.

What’s most important is that many other asset classes have performed well this year too. Emerging market stocks, small caps, U.S. stocks, and other major asset classes have also delivered solid returns. This is partly because these parts of the market also benefit from higher commodity prices. The energy sector, for instance, has been the best performing S&P 500 sector for this reason.

All of this underscores the importance of maintaining a portfolio perspective, rather than focusing on individual asset classes or investments. The purpose of a well-constructed portfolio is to benefit from all of these trends which can interact in complex ways, while managing risk, all in service of pursuing long-term financial goals.

 

The bottom line?

Commodity prices are sensitive to geopolitics, trade policy, and economic cycles. A balanced portfolio that includes exposure to different asset classes remains the best way to navigate these swings to pursue financial independence.

 

 

Index Descriptions S&P 500

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

Bloomberg Commodity Index

The Bloomberg Commodity Index is a broadly diversified financial benchmark that tracks the price performance of futures contracts on physical commodities across multiple sectors.

References

  1. https://gasprices.aaa.com/
  2. https://www.bls.gov/cpi/tables/relative-importance/home.htm
  3. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/leafhandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mcrfpus2&f=m
  4. https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IN12614
  5. https://www.spglobal.com/en/research-insights/special-reports/copper-in-the-age-of-ai

 

 

Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested in directly.

All investing involves risk, including loss of principal. No strategy assures success or protects against loss. The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted, and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.

The fast price swings in commodities will result in significant volatility in an investor’s holdings. Commodities include increased risks, such as political, economic, and currency instability, and may not be suitable for all investors.

Copyright (c) 2026 Clearnomics, Inc. All rights reserved. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the other information provided are subject to change without notice. All reports posted on or via www.clearnomics.com or any affiliated websites, applications, or services are issued without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific recipient and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future results. Company fundamentals and earnings may be mentioned occasionally, but should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the company’s stock. Predictions, forecasts, and estimates for any and all markets should not be construed as recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security–including mutual funds, futures contracts, and exchange traded funds, or any similar instruments. The text, images, and other materials contained or displayed in this report are proprietary to Clearnomics, Inc. and constitute valuable intellectual property. All unauthorized reproduction or other use of material from Clearnomics, Inc. shall be deemed willful infringement(s) of this copyright and other proprietary and intellectual property rights, including but not limited to, rights of privacy. Clearnomics, Inc. expressly reserves all rights in connection with its intellectual property, including without limitation the right to block the transfer of its products and services and/or to track usage thereof, through electronic tracking technology, and all other lawful means, now known or hereafter devised. Clearnomics, Inc. reserves the right, without further notice, to pursue to the fullest extent allowed by the law any and all criminal and civil remedies for the violation of its rights.

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Peter M. Babilla, CFP®, CRPS®

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Peter Babilla brings 40 years of experience in investment management and fiduciary* financial consulting to Vertex Planning Partners, LLC.

Pete graduated from Indiana University in Bloomington, Indiana with a Bachelor’s of Science in Finance.

He began his career in 1983 with a focus on institutional fixed-income portfolio management, primarily working with community banks. After a decade serving institutional clients, Pete shifted his focus to working with individuals, families and business owners, providing guidance and education in all areas of Wealth Management.  Among his areas of focus are accumulation and retirement planning, investment management, risk management, and estate and wealth transfer.

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Pete works as fiduciary for his clients and holds the CERTIFIED FIANANCIAL PLANNER™ (CFP®) designation and the Chartered Retirement Plan Specialist (CRPS®) designation.

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Justin D’Agostino is a Partner and Private Wealth Advisor at Vertex Planning Partners, advising business owners, executives, and high-net-worth families on investments, financial planning, tax and succession planning.

He coordinates the full advisory team around each client to keep tax, investment, and planning decisions moving in the same direction. Justin’s approach centers on rigorous, data-driven analysis — modeling outcomes across planning scenarios so clients can make decisions with clarity.

With over a decade of experience, Justin’s work focuses on:

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Justin attended Hillsdale College, where he earned his BA in Accounting and Financial Management. He is an avid sports fan and enjoys spending weekends with his family.

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Justin does not provide tax or legal advice. He works alongside each client’s CPA and attorney on those matters.

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Scott A. Sandee CFP®, CIMA®, CPWA®, CEPA

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Scott Sandee brings over 20 years of experience to his role as Managing Partner of Vertex Planning Partners, leading the firm’s efforts to assist middle-market business owners and eight and nine-figure families in comprehensive planning. We enable clients to achieve their financial goals by tailoring solutions to their unique aspirations and situations. Leveraging his experience in sophisticated investment techniques and financial strategies with privately held family businesses, supported by extensive post-graduate education focused on exit planning, wealth management, estate planning, investment analysis, insurance planning, risk management, and tax optimization, he:

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Julie Hupp, CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional, has worked in the accounting and corporate finance field since 1987. She began her career as a CPA with Deloitte & Touche, specializing in the financial needs of small businesses. Then spent the next 13 years in corporate financial planning and business development at Baxter and TAP Pharmaceuticals. Recognizing her passion for personal financial planning, Julie started her business in 2006 where she focuses on comprehensive financial planning strategies and implementation.

Julie graduated from University of Illinois with a BS in Accountancy. She received her Master’s in Management with a concentration in Finance from Northwestern University’s Kellogg School of Management in 1994.

Outside the office, Julie is the co-founder of the 12 Oaks Foundation, which has merged with Cal’s Angels, and is a former Board member. Julie enjoys cooking, reading, running, triathlons and doing almost anything outdoors. A great weekend is spending time with her husband and two adult kids boating at their lake house in Wisconsin.

Steven P. Franzen, CPA, PFS, CGMA

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Steven P. Franzen, CPA, PFS, CGMA is a public accountant and consultant with more than 23 years of experience helping individuals and businesses reduce their tax liability.  He began his career under the guidance of Patrick M. De Sio, CPA, CGMA and in 1996 became Mr. De Sio’s partner in De Sio, Franzen & Associates, Ltd. Steve’s expertise include entity design, complex tax strategies and multigenerational wealth transfer.  As Managing Partner, Steve conducts his practice under the philosophy that the client’s investment in their CPA should yield a return on that investment – most of the time that return is realized when working with clients on planning for their future. In an effort to increase the planning capabilities of the firm,  Steve formed Vertex Accounting Partners, LLC to ensure their guiding philosophy will continue well into the future.

Steve is a certified public accountant and has earned the professional designations of Personal Financial Specialist and Chartered Global Management Accountant.  He is a member of the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants and the Illinois CPA Society.  Steve earned a B.S. degree in accounting from Millikin University.  He and his wife Kristie live in Sugar Grove, IL with their three children.

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Greg Benner advises high-net-worth and ultra-high-net-worth business owners, individuals and families on advanced tax, risk management, retirement, estate planning, and wealth strategies.  

As a co-founder of Vertex Planning Partners, he works closely with clients, families, and their professional advisors—CPAs, attorneys, and business stakeholders—to implement thoughtful, durable planning strategies. His approach prioritizes clarity, coordination, and disciplined execution.

For twenty-four years, Greg’s work has focused on designing and coordinating multi-factor, integrated plans involving:

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Drawing from his own experience as a founder, business and real estate investor, and multi-generational family business member, he understands some of the challenges that can arise for business owners as they consider an exit. Multi-disciplinary, intentional planning with stakeholder communication creates structure, mitigates risk, addresses tax implications, and preempts issues that can arise.

Greg holds a Master of Science in Taxation, a graduate program that deepened his technical training in federal income taxation, partnership and corporate taxation, estate and gift tax, and tax procedure. This academic work enhances his ability to help families and business owners navigate complex tax environments and align their financial and estate-planning objectives across generations.

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Greg is deeply committed to lifelong learning and continuous professional development in the areas of tax, estate planning, and private-wealth strategy.

Michael D. Bellis, CFP®, CLU®

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Michael D. Bellis, CFP®, CLU® began his career as a financial planning professional in 1994. His practice is centered on holistic financial planning, astute risk management strategies and empirical, research-driven portfolio construction. He began his career in partnership with his father under the name Bellis & Associates. Together, their practice and reputation for excellence dates back more than 40 years and includes multiple generations of the same families. After his father’s retirement several years ago, Mike continued to build a client-centric, consultative practice before forming Vertex.

Mike holds the CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ certification and is also a Chartered Life Underwriter. He has been an active member of both the Society of Financial Services Professionals and the National Association of Insurance and Financial Advisors. He earned a B.S. in Business & Marketing from Illinois State University. Mike is a lifelong resident of Naperville, Illinois. He and his wife Tanja have three children.