Monthly Market Update for May 2026: New Highs, IPOs, Inflation, and a new Fed Chair

May was a strong month for investors, with major indices reaching new all-time highs, even as the bond market faced challenges from inflation concerns. The S&P 500 climbed above 7,500 for the first time, supported by continued strength in technology stocks. At the same time, long-term interest rates rose to nearly two-decade highs before moderating later in the month as oil prices declined. Hopes for a peace deal in Iran also supported markets, although the situation remains uncertain.

May also marked a leadership transition at the Federal Reserve for the first time since 2018, with Kevin Warsh sworn in as the new Fed Chair. While this naturally raises questions around monetary policy, history shows that markets and the economy have performed well across many different Fed leaders. For long-term investors, recent strength in the stock market is welcomed, although it is important to maintain portfolio balance to navigate all parts of the market cycle.

 

Key Market and Economic Drivers in May

  • The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 5.1%, 8.4%, and 2.8%, respectively, for the month. All three major U.S. indices finished the month at new all-time highs.
  • Volatility declined over the month, as measured by the CBOE VIX index, ending May at 15.32.
  • International developed markets returned 2.6% based on the MSCI EAFE Index in U.S. dollar terms, while emerging markets returned 9.5% based on the MSCI EM Index.
  • The 30-year Treasury yield reached 5.18%, its highest level in nearly two decades, before finishing the month below 5%. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.4%. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index returned 0.3% for the month.
  • Oil prices fell with Brent crude closing at approximately $92 per barrel and WTI at $88.
  • Gold ended the month slightly lower at $4,539 per ounce. The U.S. Dollar Index stood at 98.94, also down only slightly.
  • First quarter real GDP was revised lower from 2.0% quarter-over-quarter to 1.6%. April inflation showed headline CPI at 3.8% year-over-year and core CPI at 2.8%.

 

Long-term interest rates rose before moderating

One of the most important developments in May was the volatility in interest rates. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield reached its highest level in nearly two decades during the month, before settling back below 5%.1 The 10-year and 2-year yields both rose as well, as expectations that interest rates would stay higher for longer grew. The market now expects the Fed to hike rates once by the middle of 2027 in response to inflation concerns.

This occurred because both the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index reports came in above expectations due to energy prices. Rising inflation tends to push interest rates higher, since investors require more compensation if each dollar is worth less. The concern among some economists is that inflation will broaden across all goods if fuel prices stay higher for longer. Oil prices have come down slightly, to around $4.30 per gallon on average across the country, but this is still about $1.50 higher than before the war in Iran.2

Higher interest rates matter because they affect all parts of the economy and markets, especially if they are the result of inflation. For consumers, there is a direct effect on the cost of borrowing including personal loans and mortgage rates. The same is true for businesses since it affects the cost of financing their operations, borrowing to grow, and more.

When it comes to financial markets, higher rates mean that future cash flows are worth less today than they otherwise might be, affecting today’s asset prices. At the same time, higher yields mean that bonds are now offering more meaningful income than they have in many years, which can support diversified portfolios going forward.

Still, it’s important to maintain perspective on these moves. Markets have swung in both directions multiple times this year on changing expectations for a peace deal, and the situation continues to evolve. Interest rates have also been very difficult to predict over the past several years. While they remain high today, they are also far lower than many feared when inflation was running hotter and when the Fed was raising rates.

 

The stock market reached new all-time highs

In spite of higher interest rates and headwinds to the bond market, the stock market continues to reach new all-time highs. The S&P 500 surpassed 7,500 in May for the first time and there have been 22 all-time highs this year through the end of May.3 While the Magnificent 7 and other large technology stocks have continued to support the market, the rally has also been broader than in some prior years.

This strong market backdrop has fueled interest in upcoming IPOs for companies such as SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI, and others. These companies have grown primarily through private investments, and the trend over the past two decades has been for companies to remain private for longer. While attention is often paid to the immediate stock price moves after companies go public, the long-term benefit is that IPOs broaden the opportunity set for all investors. If you consider today’s large tech companies, for instance, it’s not their IPOs that are most important, but how they have performed in the decades since.

The fact that major indices reach new all-time highs is not unusual during a bull market. Historically, markets have trended upward over long periods of time, which means they often spend much of that time at or near record levels. What matters more than the level of any single index is whether the underlying fundamentals remain healthy. Corporate earnings have continued to grow at a healthy pace, with consensus estimates pointing to further growth in the coming year.4

Strong corporate earnings growth has helped to keep valuations stable, even as the market has reached new highs. The S&P 500 price-to-earnings ratio, for instance, is hovering around 20.9x, within the range of the past several years. At the same time, these valuations are well above long-term historical averages. While elevated valuations do not predict what the market will do over the next year or two, they are an important consideration when it comes to building portfolios for the long run. Maintaining balance across sectors, sizes, and styles can help investors manage risk while still benefiting from market trends.

 

Kevin Warsh sworn in as the new Fed Chair

Kevin Warsh was sworn in as the new Chair of the Federal Reserve in May, succeeding Jerome Powell. Warsh previously served on the Fed’s Board of Governors during the 2008 global financial crisis and is viewed by markets as a known quantity with experience in monetary policy and financial markets.

Fed leadership transitions happen infrequently by design, so they naturally raise questions about the path of policy in the years ahead. Warsh is seen as a reformer, which can raise more uncertainty as to how a Fed under his leadership will conduct monetary policy. In his recent Senate testimony, Warsh emphasized that monetary policy independence is essential and that policymakers must act in the nation’s interest. He has also signaled a preference for a more focused central bank, with views that have historically leaned toward managing inflation risks.

Regardless of what reforms Warsh might bring to the Fed as an institution, it’s clear that policymakers face a challenging economic environment. The overall economy is still healthy, but inflation has accelerated in recent months while the labor market has been mixed. Supporting hiring would normally call for lower rates, while addressing inflation would suggest tightening financial conditions. This creates a difficult balancing act, and markets have now flipped from expecting further rate cuts to at least one rate hike.

For investors, history shows that the economy has grown across the tenures of many different Fed chairs, regardless of political environment or policy approach. Earnings growth, productivity, demographics, and innovation are ultimately the most important drivers of long-run returns. Changes at the top of the Fed can generate uncertainty, but they rarely alter these long-term fundamentals.

 

The bottom line?

May brought new milestones for the stock market, extending a strong run for investors. While headlines around inflation, the new Fed Chair, and geopolitics will likely continue to generate uncertainty, the best approach for investors is still to focus on their long-term financial goals.

 

References

  1. https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics
  2. https://gasprices.aaa.com/
  3. Clearnomics research based on Standard & Poor’s index data
  4. Clearnomics research based on LSEG earnings data
  5. https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

 

Index Descriptions S&P 500

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

Dow Jones

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is comprised of 30 stocks that are major factors in their industries and widely held by individuals and institutional investors.

NASDAQ

The NASDAQ Composite Index measures all NASDAQ domestic and non-U.S. based common stocks listed on The NASDAQ Stock Market. The market value, the last sale price multiplied by total shares outstanding, is calculated throughout the trading day, and is related to the total value of the Index.

MSCI Emerging Markets Index

The MSCI EM (Emerging Markets) Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization weighted index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of the emerging market countries of the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Asia. The MSCI EM Index consists of the following emerging market country indices: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, Czech Republic, Egypt, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Qatar, Russia, South Africa, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, China, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan, and Thailand.

MSCI EAFE Index

The MSCI EAFE Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the US & Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of the following developed country indices: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the UK.

Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index

The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is an index of the U.S. investment-grade fixed-rate bond market, including both government and corporate bonds.

 

Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested in directly.

All investing involves risk, including loss of principal. No strategy assures success or protects against loss. The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted, and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.

Copyright (c) 2026 Clearnomics, Inc. All rights reserved. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the other information provided are subject to change without notice. All reports posted on or via www.clearnomics.com or any affiliated websites, applications, or services are issued without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific recipient and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future results. Company fundamentals and earnings may be mentioned occasionally, but should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the company’s stock. Predictions, forecasts, and estimates for any and all markets should not be construed as recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security–including mutual funds, futures contracts, and exchange traded funds, or any similar instruments. The text, images, and other materials contained or displayed in this report are proprietary to Clearnomics, Inc. and constitute valuable intellectual property. All unauthorized reproduction or other use of material from Clearnomics, Inc. shall be deemed willful infringement(s) of this copyright and other proprietary and intellectual property rights, including but not limited to, rights of privacy. Clearnomics, Inc. expressly reserves all rights in connection with its intellectual property, including without limitation the right to block the transfer of its products and services and/or to track usage thereof, through electronic tracking technology, and all other lawful means, now known or hereafter devised. Clearnomics, Inc. reserves the right, without further notice, to pursue to the fullest extent allowed by the law any and all criminal and civil remedies for the violation of its rights.

 

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Peter M. Babilla, CFP®, CRPS®

PARTNER

Peter Babilla brings 40 years of experience in investment management and fiduciary* financial consulting to Vertex Planning Partners, LLC.

Pete graduated from Indiana University in Bloomington, Indiana with a Bachelor’s of Science in Finance.

He began his career in 1983 with a focus on institutional fixed-income portfolio management, primarily working with community banks. After a decade serving institutional clients, Pete shifted his focus to working with individuals, families and business owners, providing guidance and education in all areas of Wealth Management.  Among his areas of focus are accumulation and retirement planning, investment management, risk management, and estate and wealth transfer.

Pete’s planning philosophy allows him to create a personalized program for clients, based on their own unique goals and circumstances.  The extensive investment and planning platform offered by Vertex enables him to create a highly customized program, tailored to each individual client.

Pete and his wife Suzanne have two children, and have resided in Wheaton, Illinois for the past 30 years.  He enjoys golf, reading, and traveling with his family.  Pete gives back as a past Board Member of the Epilepsy Foundation of Greater Chicago, where his focus is on improving the lives of those living with epilepsy.

Pete works as fiduciary for his clients and holds the CERTIFIED FIANANCIAL PLANNER™ (CFP®) designation and the Chartered Retirement Plan Specialist (CRPS®) designation.

JUSTIN J. D'AGOSTINO, CFP®, TPCP®, ChFC®, CRPC®

PARTNER

Justin D’Agostino joined Vertex Partners in 2019 and serves a select group of business owners and affluent families. He specializes in investments, financial planning, and succession planning. His interest and knowledge in providing comprehensive financial planning and wealth management services to clients was sparked when he worked at a boutique tax and wealth management firm in Michigan. He has nine years of experience in the financial services industry, and his mission is to provide every client with targeted, comprehensive financial advice and to help them implement customized strategies designed to move them closer to accomplishing their unique goals.

Justin attended Hillsdale College where he earned his BA in Accounting and Financial Management and was a member and captain of the football team. Justin is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ Professional, and holds the Tax Planning Certified Professional®, Chartered Financial Consultant® and Chartered Retirement Planning Counselor™ designations.

Justin and his wife, Alexandra, reside in Chicago, Illinois. He is an avid sports fan and enjoys golfing, playing soccer and spending summer weekends with his family.

Scott A. Sandee CFP®, CIMA®, CPWA®, CEPA

MANAGING PARTNER

Scott Sandee brings over 20 years of experience to his role as Managing Partner of Vertex Planning Partners, leading the firm’s efforts to assist middle-market business owners and eight and nine-figure families in comprehensive planning. We enable clients to achieve their financial goals by tailoring solutions to their unique aspirations and situations. Leveraging his experience in sophisticated investment techniques and financial strategies with privately held family businesses, supported by extensive post-graduate education focused on exit planning, wealth management, estate planning, investment analysis, insurance planning, risk management, and tax optimization, he:

  • Assist owners in preparing for and executing a successful transition.
  • Develop financial strategies to maximize sales proceeds and reduce future taxes.
  • Listen carefully and create personalized solutions that reflect each client’s unique hopes, goals, and concerns.
  • Explain complex and technical concepts with clarity and simplicity.

 

Scott guides successful entrepreneurs and wealthy families through the transfer of ownership of their privately held companies.

Designations: Certified Financial Planner® Certified Private Wealth Advisor® Certified Investment Management Analyst® Certified Exit Planning Advisor Certified Merger & Acquisition Advisor

Julie Hupp CFP®, MBA

PARTNER

Julie Hupp, CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional, has worked in the accounting and corporate finance field since 1987. She began her career as a CPA with Deloitte & Touche, specializing in the financial needs of small businesses. Then spent the next 13 years in corporate financial planning and business development at Baxter and TAP Pharmaceuticals. Recognizing her passion for personal financial planning, Julie started her business in 2006 where she focuses on comprehensive financial planning strategies and implementation.

Julie graduated from University of Illinois with a BS in Accountancy. She received her Master’s in Management with a concentration in Finance from Northwestern University’s Kellogg School of Management in 1994.

Outside the office, Julie is the co-founder of the 12 Oaks Foundation, which has merged with Cal’s Angels, and is a former Board member. Julie enjoys cooking, reading, running, triathlons and doing almost anything outdoors. A great weekend is spending time with her husband and two adult kids boating at their lake house in Wisconsin.

Steven P. Franzen, CPA, PFS, CGMA

MANAGING PARTNER

Steven P. Franzen, CPA, PFS, CGMA is a public accountant and consultant with more than 23 years of experience helping individuals and businesses reduce their tax liability.  He began his career under the guidance of Patrick M. De Sio, CPA, CGMA and in 1996 became Mr. De Sio’s partner in De Sio, Franzen & Associates, Ltd. Steve’s expertise include entity design, complex tax strategies and multigenerational wealth transfer.  As Managing Partner, Steve conducts his practice under the philosophy that the client’s investment in their CPA should yield a return on that investment – most of the time that return is realized when working with clients on planning for their future. In an effort to increase the planning capabilities of the firm,  Steve formed Vertex Accounting Partners, LLC to ensure their guiding philosophy will continue well into the future.

Steve is a certified public accountant and has earned the professional designations of Personal Financial Specialist and Chartered Global Management Accountant.  He is a member of the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants and the Illinois CPA Society.  Steve earned a B.S. degree in accounting from Millikin University.  He and his wife Kristie live in Sugar Grove, IL with their three children.

Gregory P. Benner, MST, CPWA®, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC®, AIF®, RMA®

MANAGING PARTNER

Greg Benner advises high-net-worth and ultra-high-net-worth business owners, individuals and families on advanced tax, risk management, retirement, estate planning, and wealth strategies.  

As a co-founder of Vertex Planning Partners, he works closely with clients, families, and their professional advisors—CPAs, attorneys, and business stakeholders—to implement thoughtful, durable planning strategies. His approach prioritizes clarity, coordination, and disciplined execution.

For twenty-four years, Greg’s work has focused on designing and coordinating multi-factor, integrated plans involving:

  • Tax Efficiency
  • Wealth Transfer Structures
  • Retirement Planning
  • Investment Strategy, and
  • Long-Term Financial Architecture

 

Drawing from his own experience as a founder, business and real estate investor, and multi-generational family business member, he understands some of the challenges that can arise for business owners as they consider an exit. Multi-disciplinary, intentional planning with stakeholder communication creates structure, mitigates risk, addresses tax implications, and preempts issues that can arise.

Greg holds a Master of Science in Taxation, a graduate program that deepened his technical training in federal income taxation, partnership and corporate taxation, estate and gift tax, and tax procedure. This academic work enhances his ability to help families and business owners navigate complex tax environments and align their financial and estate-planning objectives across generations.

Designations:

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  • Certified Financial Planner®
  • Chartered Financial Consultant®
  • Chartered Life Underwriter®
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  • Retirement Management Advisor®

 

Licenses:

  • Series 65 registration held with Vertex Planning Partners, LLC
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Greg is deeply committed to lifelong learning and continuous professional development in the areas of tax, estate planning, and private-wealth strategy.

Michael D. Bellis, CFP®, CLU®

MANAGING PARTNER

Michael D. Bellis, CFP®, CLU® began his career as a financial planning professional in 1994. His practice is centered on holistic financial planning, astute risk management strategies and empirical, research-driven portfolio construction. He began his career in partnership with his father under the name Bellis & Associates. Together, their practice and reputation for excellence dates back more than 40 years and includes multiple generations of the same families. After his father’s retirement several years ago, Mike continued to build a client-centric, consultative practice before forming Vertex.

Mike holds the CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ certification and is also a Chartered Life Underwriter. He has been an active member of both the Society of Financial Services Professionals and the National Association of Insurance and Financial Advisors. He earned a B.S. in Business & Marketing from Illinois State University. Mike is a lifelong resident of Naperville, Illinois. He and his wife Tanja have three children.