Quarterly Market Outlook for Q2 2026: Geopolitics, Oil, and Market Pullbacks

The first quarter of 2026 illustrates the importance of preparation when it comes to financial planning and investing. After strong gains in 2025, markets have faced a combination of geopolitical shocks, higher oil prices, and renewed economic uncertainty. The conflict in Iran, which began at the end of February, became the dominant market story, pushing oil prices sharply higher and sparking the first market pullback of the year. However, by the end of March, headlines around a possible ceasefire emerged, and the situation continues to evolve.

Taking a broader perspective, markets have still performed exceptionally well over the past twelve months. Beneath the surface, many parts of the market have supported portfolios, including energy and defensive sectors. There will undoubtedly be new market questions in the coming months, including a change in leadership at the Federal Reserve and the midterm election later this year.

For long-term investors, the first quarter is a reminder that markets rarely move in a straight line, and that the principles of sound investing matter most when uncertainty is at its peak.

 

Key Market and Economic Drivers

  • The S&P 500 experienced a total return of -4.3% in Q1, the Nasdaq -7.0%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average -3.2%.
  • The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index was flat for the first quarter of 2026. The 10-year Treasury yield ended the quarter at 4.3% after falling as low as 3.9% at the end of February.
  • Developed market international stocks (MSCI EAFE) were down -1.1% and emerging market stocks (MSCI EM) declined -0.1% over the quarter, both on a total return basis in U.S. dollar terms.
  • Oil prices spiked with Brent crude reaching $118 per barrel at the end of March after beginning the year under $61. WTI ended the quarter at $101 per barrel.
  • Gold ended the quarter at $4,668 per ounce after climbing as high as $5,417 in January. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) strengthened slightly to 99.96 over the same period.
  • February inflation showed headline CPI rising 2.4% year-over-year and core CPI climbing 2.5%. The core PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred measure, rose 3.1% year-over-year in January.
  • The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged within a range of 3.50% to 3.75% at both meetings during the first quarter.

     

    Markets experienced the first pullback of the year

    It’s natural to draw parallels between the start of this year and the beginning of 2025, since both were driven by global concerns. Coincidentally, both first quarter periods experienced pullbacks for the S&P 500 of 4.3%. While last year’s volatility was the result of tariffs and this year’s is due to the conflict in the Middle East, the effect on investor sentiment has been similar. When uncertainty rises, it’s natural for markets to experience short-term swings in response to headlines.

    The past is no guarantee of the future, but zooming out can help us understand how markets have behaved historically. Despite the challenges in the first quarter of 2025,

    the stock market experienced strong gains through the remainder of the year, including dozens of record highs across major indices. The point is not that markets always recover quickly, but that market conversations tend to focus only on negative news. So, when rebounds do occur, they often do so when investors least expect them.

    Perhaps the most helpful perspective is to remember that pullbacks are a normal and unavoidable part of investing. Since 1980, the S&P 500 has experienced an average intra-year drawdown of around 15%, even though markets tend to experience positive returns in more than two-thirds of years. It’s natural for the average year to experience four or five pullbacks of five percent or worse. Last year saw six such pullbacks, even though the S&P 500 finished the year with an 18% total return.

    For investors, the key takeaway is that short-term market swings, especially those driven by headline risk, are simply part of the market cycle. Portfolios aligned with long-term financial goals are designed exactly to navigate these periods. This could be especially important as we approach the midterm election and fiscal concerns reemerge later in the year.

     

    Geopolitics and oil prices are the primary source of uncertainty

    The most significant market development of the first quarter was the escalating conflict in the Middle East, which drove oil prices higher. Disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly 20% of global oil from the Persian Gulf to the rest of the world, led to production cuts across major oil-producing nations in the region. Brent crude ended the quarter at $118 per barrel, up over 94% year-to-date, while WTI crude surpassed $100, the highest levels since the war in Ukraine began in 2022. Oil will continue to react to geopolitical headlines, including around a possible ceasefire.

    Higher fuel costs directly affect consumers through the price of gasoline at the pump and indirectly raise the prices of goods and services across the economy. The average price of gasoline across the country reached $4 at the end of March, and diesel prices have jumped significantly as well.

    While these types of events do affect consumer pocketbooks, economists tend to view these types of “supply-side shocks” as temporary when considering the health of the overall economy. This is because oil prices tend to improve once the geopolitical event has stabilized. This was the case in 2022 when gas prices reached $5 before declining within months. While not pleasant, significant financial hardship is not expected to be an issue for the average American household at current gasoline levels.

    History also shows that geopolitical events, while creating short-term instability, have not typically derailed markets in the long run. This includes the U.S. operation in Venezuela in January, which surprised markets but had little lasting impact on investments. While the current situation is still evolving and the humanitarian consequences are significant, investors who made dramatic portfolio adjustments in response to past events often did so at the wrong moment.

     

    Economic growth is slowing but remains positive

    Volatile energy prices are just one piece of the broader economic puzzle. Other signs point to an economy that has cooled over the past year, but that is still fundamentally healthy. This is after many years during which investors and economists predicted recessions that did not materialize.

    Perhaps the most closely watched area is the labor market, and the latest payrolls data show that February job gains fell by 92,000 and the unemployment rate edged up to 4.4%. Importantly, job seekers now outnumber job openings for the first time in years. As recently as 2022, there were two job openings for every unemployed

    individual, reflecting an exceptionally tight labor market. That relationship has now reversed.

    However, the context around this matters. Fewer people are entering the workforce due to lower immigration and an aging population. In other words, both the supply and demand sides of the labor market are cooling, which has helped keep the unemployment rate near historically strong levels. Investors tend to watch jobs data closely because employment directly affects household income, consumer confidence, and spending. Consumer spending makes up more than two-thirds of GDP, and has been stronger than many expected over the past several quarters.

     

    Sector performance has diverged

    While the overall S&P 500 is experiencing a pullback, performance at the sector level has shown a wide degree of variation. In fact, six of the eleven S&P 500 sectors are positive for the year, and the difference between the best and worst performing sectors widened to nearly 50 percentage points in the first quarter.

    The Energy sector has been the clear leader, gaining nearly 40% through the end of March, with higher oil prices expected to boost revenues and encourage further investment. Other sectors showing strength include Consumer Staples, Utilities, Materials, and Industrials, all of which have benefited from a more cautious

    market environment. Many of these sectors are often considered “defensive,” since they represent more stable businesses with steadier cash flows that are less dependent on the economic cycle.

    In contrast, the Information Technology sector has declined approximately 9%, and many mega-cap stocks in the Magnificent 7 have underperformed. This is a shift from recent years when a small number of large technology companies drove the majority of market gains.

    As always, it’s important to keep these moves in perspective. As the chart above shows, sector leadership can change based on market and economic conditions. Energy was the best performing sector in 2021 and 2022 when technology-related stocks struggled. This then reversed over the next three years. Just as with asset classes, it is extremely difficult to predict which sector will lead or lag in any given year, which is why a well-balanced portfolio is better positioned to weather different market environments.

     

    The tariff story is evolving

    Trade policy also took a turn at the end of January after the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that the broad tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) were unlawful. The administration responded by imposing a temporary global import duty under a different law, Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. The administration also opened new Section 301 trade investigations in March, while about a dozen Section 232 investigations remain ongoing.

    For investors, the main takeaway is that while the legal basis for tariffs has changed, the broader policy direction will continue. Tariffs will likely continue to

    impact the economy across consumer prices, business costs, and investor confidence. That said, last year showed that markets adapt to these types of policy changes over time. So, regardless of how the tariff story plays out later this year, the key is to stay invested and not overreact to policy moves.

     

    The bottom line?

    The first quarter of 2026 challenges investors with geopolitical shocks, higher oil prices, and economic uncertainty. Yet markets have been resilient, with well-balanced portfolios and financial plans doing what they were designed to do. Investors should continue to focus on long run goals in the coming months.

     

     

    Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested in directly.

    All investing involves risk, including loss of principal. No strategy assures success or protects against loss. The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted, and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.

    Copyright (c) 2026 Clearnomics, Inc. All rights reserved. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the other information provided are subject to change without notice. All reports posted on or via www.clearnomics.com or any affiliated websites, applications, or services are issued without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular

    needs of any specific recipient and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future results. Company fundamentals and earnings may be mentioned occasionally, but should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the company’s stock. Predictions, forecasts, and estimates for any and all markets should not be construed as recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security–including mutual funds, futures contracts, and exchange traded funds, or any similar instruments. The text, images, and other materials contained or displayed in this report are proprietary to Clearnomics, Inc. and constitute valuable intellectual property. All unauthorized reproduction or other use of material from Clearnomics, Inc. shall be deemed willful infringement(s) of this copyright and other proprietary and intellectual property rights, including but not limited to, rights of privacy. Clearnomics, Inc. expressly reserves all rights in connection with its intellectual property, including without limitation the right to block the transfer of its products and services and/or to track usage thereof, through electronic tracking technology, and all other lawful means, now known or hereafter devised. Clearnomics, Inc. reserves the right, without further notice, to pursue to the fullest extent allowed by the law any and all criminal and civil remedies for the violation of its rights.

     

    Share This:

    Facebook
    Twitter
    LinkedIn

    Connect

    Connecting with Vertex Planning Partners is your first step towards a tailored financial future. Reach out to discuss guidance that aligns with your unique financial goals and aspirations.

    Connect With Us

    Schedule a meeting with a  Vertex Planning Partner Advisor who will answer any questions you might have. 

    p: 630.836.3300 – e: in**@************rs.com

    We’re here to help. Email or call us and speak with a Vertex Planning Partner Advisor who will answer any questions you might have: 630.836.3300 or in**@************rs.com

    Download our Independent Advisors eBook

    Enter your email to download our Independent Advisors eBook and unlock the secrets to a tailored financial future.

    Download our PATH eBook

    Enter your email to download our PATH eBook and unlock the secrets to a tailored financial future.

    Peter M. Babilla, CFP®, CRPS®

    PARTNER

    Peter Babilla brings 40 years of experience in investment management and fiduciary* financial consulting to Vertex Planning Partners, LLC.

    Pete graduated from Indiana University in Bloomington, Indiana with a Bachelor’s of Science in Finance.

    He began his career in 1983 with a focus on institutional fixed-income portfolio management, primarily working with community banks. After a decade serving institutional clients, Pete shifted his focus to working with individuals, families and business owners, providing guidance and education in all areas of Wealth Management.  Among his areas of focus are accumulation and retirement planning, investment management, risk management, and estate and wealth transfer.

    Pete’s planning philosophy allows him to create a personalized program for clients, based on their own unique goals and circumstances.  The extensive investment and planning platform offered by Vertex enables him to create a highly customized program, tailored to each individual client.

    Pete and his wife Suzanne have two children, and have resided in Wheaton, Illinois for the past 30 years.  He enjoys golf, reading, and traveling with his family.  Pete gives back as a past Board Member of the Epilepsy Foundation of Greater Chicago, where his focus is on improving the lives of those living with epilepsy.

    Pete works as fiduciary for his clients and holds the CERTIFIED FIANANCIAL PLANNER™ (CFP®) designation and the Chartered Retirement Plan Specialist (CRPS®) designation.

    JUSTIN J. D'AGOSTINO, CFP®, TPCP®, ChFC®, CRPC®

    PARTNER

    Justin D’Agostino joined Vertex Partners in 2019 and serves a select group of business owners and affluent families. He specializes in investments, financial planning, and succession planning. His interest and knowledge in providing comprehensive financial planning and wealth management services to clients was sparked when he worked at a boutique tax and wealth management firm in Michigan. He has nine years of experience in the financial services industry, and his mission is to provide every client with targeted, comprehensive financial advice and to help them implement customized strategies designed to move them closer to accomplishing their unique goals.

    Justin attended Hillsdale College where he earned his BA in Accounting and Financial Management and was a member and captain of the football team. Justin is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ Professional, and holds the Tax Planning Certified Professional®, Chartered Financial Consultant® and Chartered Retirement Planning Counselor™ designations.

    Justin and his wife, Alexandra, reside in Chicago, Illinois. He is an avid sports fan and enjoys golfing, playing soccer and spending summer weekends with his family.

    Scott A. Sandee CFP®, CIMA®, CPWA®, CEPA

    MANAGING PARTNER

    Scott Sandee brings over 20 years of experience as Managing Partner. He is responsible for leading the firm’s efforts in assisting middle-market business owners and seven and eight-figure families to plan and realize financial goals based on their unique aspirations and situations.

    With a privately held family business background, Scott has helped owners prepare for and execute a successful transition. In addition, he works with business owners and their advisors to develop financial strategies to maximize sales proceeds and minimize future taxes.

    Before joining Vertex, Scott served in financial planning and investment strategy roles at Oxford Financial Group, Capital Group, and The Northern Trust Company, working with Chicago’s HNW/UHNW families clients.

    Scott holds the Certified Financial Planner®, Certified Private Wealth Advisor®, Certified Investment Management Analyst®, and Certified Exit Planning Advisor designations. Scott earned his B.S. in Computer Science from Northern Illinois University, and his family resides in Wilmette, IL.

    Julie Hupp CFP®, MBA

    PARTNER

    Julie Hupp, CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional, has worked in the accounting and corporate finance field since 1987. She began her career as a CPA with Deloitte & Touche, specializing in the financial needs of small businesses. Then spent the next 13 years in corporate financial planning and business development at Baxter and TAP Pharmaceuticals. Recognizing her passion for personal financial planning, Julie started her business in 2006 where she focuses on comprehensive financial planning strategies and implementation.

    Julie graduated from University of Illinois with a BS in Accountancy. She received her Master’s in Management with a concentration in Finance from Northwestern University’s Kellogg School of Management in 1994.

    Outside the office, Julie is the co-founder of the 12 Oaks Foundation, which has merged with Cal’s Angels, and is a former Board member. Julie enjoys cooking, reading, running, triathlons and doing almost anything outdoors. A great weekend is spending time with her husband and two adult kids boating at their lake house in Wisconsin.

    Steven P. Franzen, CPA, PFS, CGMA

    MANAGING PARTNER

    Steven P. Franzen, CPA, PFS, CGMA is a public accountant and consultant with more than 23 years of experience helping individuals and businesses reduce their tax liability.  He began his career under the guidance of Patrick M. De Sio, CPA, CGMA and in 1996 became Mr. De Sio’s partner in De Sio, Franzen & Associates, Ltd. Steve’s expertise include entity design, complex tax strategies and multigenerational wealth transfer.  As Managing Partner, Steve conducts his practice under the philosophy that the client’s investment in their CPA should yield a return on that investment – most of the time that return is realized when working with clients on planning for their future. In an effort to increase the planning capabilities of the firm,  Steve formed Vertex Accounting Partners, LLC to ensure their guiding philosophy will continue well into the future.

    Steve is a certified public accountant and has earned the professional designations of Personal Financial Specialist and Chartered Global Management Accountant.  He is a member of the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants and the Illinois CPA Society.  Steve earned a B.S. degree in accounting from Millikin University.  He and his wife Kristie live in Sugar Grove, IL with their three children.

    Gregory P. Benner, CPWA®, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC®, AIF®, RMA®

    MANAGING PARTNER

    Greg Benner advises high-net-worth and ultra-high-net-worth business owners, individuals and families on advanced tax, risk management, retirement, estate planning, and wealth strategies.  

    As a co-founder of Vertex Planning Partners, he works closely with clients, families, and their professional advisors—CPAs, attorneys, and business stakeholders—to implement thoughtful, durable planning strategies. His approach prioritizes clarity, coordination, and disciplined execution.

    For twenty-four years, Greg’s work has focused on designing and coordinating multi-factor, integrated plans involving:

    • Tax Efficiency
    • Wealth Transfer Structures
    • Retirement Planning
    • Investment Strategy, and
    • Long-Term Financial Architecture

     

    Drawing from his own experience as a founder, business and real estate investor, and multi-generational family business member, he understands some of the challenges that can arise for business owners as they consider an exit. Multi-disciplinary, intentional planning with stakeholder communication creates structure, mitigates risk, addresses tax implications, and preempts issues that can arise.

    Greg holds a Master of Science in Taxation, a graduate program that deepened his technical training in federal income taxation, partnership and corporate taxation, estate and gift tax, and tax procedure. This academic work enhances his ability to help families and business owners navigate complex tax environments and align their financial and estate-planning objectives across generations.

    Designations:

    • Certified Private Wealth Advisor®
    • Certified Financial Planner®
    • Chartered Financial Consultant®
    • Chartered Life Underwriter®
    • Accredited Investment Fiduciary®
    • Retirement Management Advisor®

     

    Licenses:

    • Series 65 registration held with Vertex Planning Partners, LLC
      Illinois, Ohio, Wisconsin & Louisiana Life & Health Insurance License

     

    Greg is deeply committed to lifelong learning and continuous professional development in the areas of tax, estate planning, and private-wealth strategy.

    Michael D. Bellis, CFP®, CLU®

    MANAGING PARTNER

    Michael D. Bellis, CFP®, CLU® began his career as a financial planning professional in 1994. His practice is centered on holistic financial planning, astute risk management strategies and empirical, research-driven portfolio construction. He began his career in partnership with his father under the name Bellis & Associates. Together, their practice and reputation for excellence dates back more than 40 years and includes multiple generations of the same families. After his father’s retirement several years ago, Mike continued to build a client-centric, consultative practice before forming Vertex.

    Mike holds the CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ certification and is also a Chartered Life Underwriter. He has been an active member of both the Society of Financial Services Professionals and the National Association of Insurance and Financial Advisors. He earned a B.S. in Business & Marketing from Illinois State University. Mike is a lifelong resident of Naperville, Illinois. He and his wife Tanja have three children.