Global Portfolio Perspectives on the Dollar, Gold, and International Stocks

Global events have been at the center of financial market activity, with high oil prices, geopolitics, and new tariff rules capturing investor attention. Behind many of these trends, however, is the level of the U.S. dollar. While currency movements have received less attention in recent weeks, they continue to have important effects on portfolios by influencing international investments, commodities like gold, and the broader economic environment.

One of the key developments over the past few years has been the decline of the dollar from its 2022 peak. More recently, however, the dollar has partially rebounded, reflecting its role as a safe-haven asset during periods of geopolitical stress. So, what does this mean for investors, and how does it connect to the performance of other assets like international stocks and precious metals? Understanding this can help investors maintain perspective and keep their portfolios positioned to achieve financial goals.

 

Three facts investors should know about the dollar

After reaching its 2022 peak around 114 based on the dollar index (DXY), the dollar weakened as global growth stabilized and investors began looking beyond U.S. assets for opportunities. This trend accelerated last year when tariffs pushed the dollar below 100 for the first time in three years. The dollar has rebounded somewhat this year as geopolitical concerns have driven investors toward safe-haven assets. Taking a longer-term perspective, it’s also easy to see that the dollar is stronger than it has been historically, even if it is below its all-time high.

There are three important facts to understand about the dollar in the current market environment. First, a stronger dollar is not always ideal. From the perspective of everyday consumers, it’s natural to prefer a favorable exchange rate since this makes imported goods and international travel more affordable. However, this is only one side of the equation.

A strong dollar can also create challenges for businesses that compete globally, since their products become more expensive for overseas buyers. This is one reason many countries have historically been accused of keeping their currencies artificially weak, since doing so provides a competitive advantage for their goods and services relative to those of other countries. So, the ideal currency level is one that reflects a balance between the needs of consumers, businesses, and the broader economy.

Second, from a macroeconomic perspective, the value of the dollar is based on many global factors including differences in interest rates, trade, fiscal policy, and more. These factors have changed considerably over the past few years as the Fed shifted from aggressive rate hikes to cuts and now to a pause, alongside the implementation of new tariffs.

Interestingly, last year’s tariffs did not strengthen the dollar in a way that would be predicted by economic theory, but did the opposite. This is partly due to the so-called “debasement trade,” or the idea that the government might implement policies that weaken the economic position of the dollar over time. This includes persistent fiscal deficits that will likely come back into focus later this year due to ongoing budget talks in Washington and the November midterm election.

Third, since late January, the dollar has risen from its lows as geopolitical tensions have encouraged investors to seek safety in dollar-denominated assets. The currency’s recent rebound is a reminder that during periods of global stress, the dollar and U.S. Treasurys tend to attract capital. This reflects the fact that the dollar is still the world’s most important currency, especially during uncertain periods.

The dollar still accounts for most global currency reserves and is used in a large share of international transactions. While there are always concerns about the dollar losing its reserve currency status, this is nothing new. Similar questions arose during Japan’s rise in the 1980s, after the introduction of the euro in the early 2000s, the rapid growth of China’s economy, and more recently amid the growth of digital currencies. And while this may slowly change over time, investors still often return to the dollar in challenging periods.

 

A weaker dollar has supported international stock returns

One of the effects of the dollar’s decline over the past year has been its impact on international stock market returns. In 2025, both developed and emerging market equities delivered strong performance, with the MSCI EAFE index returning 31.9% and the MSCI EM index returning 34.4% in U.S. dollar terms. These were both well ahead of the S&P 500, highlighting the importance of diversifying internationally.

To understand why currencies matter, it helps to consider how international investments work for a U.S.-based investor. When you invest in international stocks, those assets are priced in local currencies, which means that you are essentially holding those currencies. If the dollar weakens, the same amount of those currencies converts back into more dollars. So, currency movements are an important component of international returns, in addition to the returns of the underlying assets.

Beyond currency effects, valuations also play an important role. International markets have traded at a meaningful discount to U.S. equities for some time, with developed markets trading with a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.9x and emerging markets 11.8x, compared to 19.9x for the S&P 500. This does not predict returns over the short run and is thus not a timing indicator. Instead, this difference in valuations is an important input into constructing balanced portfolios when deciding how to weigh different assets.

So far in 2026, international markets have continued to modestly outperform the S&P 500, even as the dollar has partially recovered. Both developed and emerging markets are up slightly on the year, whereas U.S. indices are somewhat negative. While the current market situation is still evolving, this is a meaningful change after years in which U.S. equities consistently led global markets, leading some investors to question the value of international diversification. For long-term investors, this reinforces the idea that asset class leadership rotates over time and that maintaining global exposure can improve the consistency of portfolio outcomes.

 

Gold has pulled back alongside other asset classes

Gold has understandably been one of the most discussed assets over the past few years, and is affected by many of the same factors as the dollar. Rising fiscal deficits, easing monetary policy, geopolitical tensions, and concerns about currency debasement all fit the narrative for gold. These factors contributed to a strong multi-year rally that pushed prices to all-time highs as recently as late January when gold reached $5,417 per ounce.

Since then, gold has declined roughly 14% from that peak, even as geopolitical uncertainty has remained elevated and many other factors remain in place. This might seem puzzling to investors who hold gold specifically as a safe-haven asset.

Part of the explanation is that gold had already attracted significant investor interest during its latest rally. As more investors buy gold in anticipation of continued gains, it’s natural for its price movements to correlate more closely with other assets. For example, when markets experience stress, gold may be sold alongside stocks rather than behaving independently, especially as investors have shifted back to the dollar. This is one reason the decline in gold has coincided with strength in the dollar.

This is not the first time gold has behaved this way. Between 2011 and 2020, gold was essentially flat, even as the Federal Reserve maintained accommodative monetary policy for much of that period and financial markets experienced several bouts of significant uncertainty. It was also relatively flat during the inflationary period from 2022 to early 2024, which would have normally been considered positive for gold. However, the Fed raised rates rapidly, increasing the attractiveness of cash and other short-term assets.

As always, the more useful lens is to view the dollar, international investments, and gold as parts of an overall portfolio rather than as standalone investments. The value of these assets is in the fact that they behave differently than stocks and bonds, and thus help to stabilize portfolios over time.

 

The bottom line?

The dollar, international stocks, and assets such as gold can all serve different roles in balanced portfolios. During periods of uncertainty, it’s important to maintain a broader perspective on the driving factors behind these assets. Ultimately, a well-constructed portfolio remains an option to consider in pursuit of long-term financial goals.

 

 

Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested in directly.

All investing involves risk, including loss of principal. No strategy assures success or protects against loss. The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted, and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.

Copyright (c) 2026 Clearnomics, Inc. All rights reserved. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the other information provided are subject to change without notice. All reports posted on or via www.clearnomics.com or any affiliated websites, applications, or services are issued without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular

needs of any specific recipient and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future results. Company fundamentals and earnings may be mentioned occasionally, but should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the company’s stock. Predictions, forecasts, and estimates for any and all markets should not be construed as recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security–including mutual funds, futures contracts, and exchange traded funds, or any similar instruments. The text, images, and other materials contained or displayed in this report are proprietary to Clearnomics, Inc. and constitute valuable intellectual property. All unauthorized reproduction or other use of material from Clearnomics, Inc. shall be deemed willful infringement(s) of this copyright and other proprietary and intellectual property rights, including but not limited to, rights of privacy. Clearnomics, Inc. expressly reserves all rights in connection with its intellectual property, including without limitation the right to block the transfer of its products and services and/or to track usage thereof, through electronic tracking technology, and all other lawful means, now known or hereafter devised. Clearnomics, Inc. reserves the right, without further notice, to pursue to the fullest extent allowed by the law any and all criminal and civil remedies for the violation of its rights.

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Peter M. Babilla, CFP®, CRPS®

PARTNER

Peter Babilla brings 40 years of experience in investment management and fiduciary* financial consulting to Vertex Planning Partners, LLC.

Pete graduated from Indiana University in Bloomington, Indiana with a Bachelor’s of Science in Finance.

He began his career in 1983 with a focus on institutional fixed-income portfolio management, primarily working with community banks. After a decade serving institutional clients, Pete shifted his focus to working with individuals, families and business owners, providing guidance and education in all areas of Wealth Management.  Among his areas of focus are accumulation and retirement planning, investment management, risk management, and estate and wealth transfer.

Pete’s planning philosophy allows him to create a personalized program for clients, based on their own unique goals and circumstances.  The extensive investment and planning platform offered by Vertex enables him to create a highly customized program, tailored to each individual client.

Pete and his wife Suzanne have two children, and have resided in Wheaton, Illinois for the past 30 years.  He enjoys golf, reading, and traveling with his family.  Pete gives back as a past Board Member of the Epilepsy Foundation of Greater Chicago, where his focus is on improving the lives of those living with epilepsy.

Pete works as fiduciary for his clients and holds the CERTIFIED FIANANCIAL PLANNER™ (CFP®) designation and the Chartered Retirement Plan Specialist (CRPS®) designation.

JUSTIN J. D'AGOSTINO, CFP®, TPCP®, ChFC®, CRPC®

PARTNER

Justin D’Agostino joined Vertex Partners in 2019 and serves a select group of business owners and affluent families. He specializes in investments, financial planning, and succession planning. His interest and knowledge in providing comprehensive financial planning and wealth management services to clients was sparked when he worked at a boutique tax and wealth management firm in Michigan. He has nine years of experience in the financial services industry, and his mission is to provide every client with targeted, comprehensive financial advice and to help them implement customized strategies designed to move them closer to accomplishing their unique goals.

Justin attended Hillsdale College where he earned his BA in Accounting and Financial Management and was a member and captain of the football team. Justin is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ Professional, and holds the Tax Planning Certified Professional®, Chartered Financial Consultant® and Chartered Retirement Planning Counselor™ designations.

Justin and his wife, Alexandra, reside in Chicago, Illinois. He is an avid sports fan and enjoys golfing, playing soccer and spending summer weekends with his family.

Scott A. Sandee CFP®, CIMA®, CPWA®, CEPA

MANAGING PARTNER

Scott Sandee brings over 20 years of experience as Managing Partner. He is responsible for leading the firm’s efforts in assisting middle-market business owners and seven and eight-figure families to plan and realize financial goals based on their unique aspirations and situations.

With a privately held family business background, Scott has helped owners prepare for and execute a successful transition. In addition, he works with business owners and their advisors to develop financial strategies to maximize sales proceeds and minimize future taxes.

Before joining Vertex, Scott served in financial planning and investment strategy roles at Oxford Financial Group, Capital Group, and The Northern Trust Company, working with Chicago’s HNW/UHNW families clients.

Scott holds the Certified Financial Planner®, Certified Private Wealth Advisor®, Certified Investment Management Analyst®, and Certified Exit Planning Advisor designations. Scott earned his B.S. in Computer Science from Northern Illinois University, and his family resides in Wilmette, IL.

Julie Hupp CFP®, MBA

PARTNER

Julie Hupp, CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional, has worked in the accounting and corporate finance field since 1987. She began her career as a CPA with Deloitte & Touche, specializing in the financial needs of small businesses. Then spent the next 13 years in corporate financial planning and business development at Baxter and TAP Pharmaceuticals. Recognizing her passion for personal financial planning, Julie started her business in 2006 where she focuses on comprehensive financial planning strategies and implementation.

Julie graduated from University of Illinois with a BS in Accountancy. She received her Master’s in Management with a concentration in Finance from Northwestern University’s Kellogg School of Management in 1994.

Outside the office, Julie is the co-founder of the 12 Oaks Foundation, which has merged with Cal’s Angels, and is a former Board member. Julie enjoys cooking, reading, running, triathlons and doing almost anything outdoors. A great weekend is spending time with her husband and two adult kids boating at their lake house in Wisconsin.

Steven P. Franzen, CPA, PFS, CGMA

MANAGING PARTNER

Steven P. Franzen, CPA, PFS, CGMA is a public accountant and consultant with more than 23 years of experience helping individuals and businesses reduce their tax liability.  He began his career under the guidance of Patrick M. De Sio, CPA, CGMA and in 1996 became Mr. De Sio’s partner in De Sio, Franzen & Associates, Ltd. Steve’s expertise include entity design, complex tax strategies and multigenerational wealth transfer.  As Managing Partner, Steve conducts his practice under the philosophy that the client’s investment in their CPA should yield a return on that investment – most of the time that return is realized when working with clients on planning for their future. In an effort to increase the planning capabilities of the firm,  Steve formed Vertex Accounting Partners, LLC to ensure their guiding philosophy will continue well into the future.

Steve is a certified public accountant and has earned the professional designations of Personal Financial Specialist and Chartered Global Management Accountant.  He is a member of the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants and the Illinois CPA Society.  Steve earned a B.S. degree in accounting from Millikin University.  He and his wife Kristie live in Sugar Grove, IL with their three children.

Gregory P. Benner, CPWA®, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC®, AIF®, RMA®

MANAGING PARTNER

Greg Benner advises high-net-worth and ultra-high-net-worth business owners, individuals and families on advanced tax, risk management, retirement, estate planning, and wealth strategies.  

As a co-founder of Vertex Planning Partners, he works closely with clients, families, and their professional advisors—CPAs, attorneys, and business stakeholders—to implement thoughtful, durable planning strategies. His approach prioritizes clarity, coordination, and disciplined execution.

For twenty-four years, Greg’s work has focused on designing and coordinating multi-factor, integrated plans involving:

  • Tax Efficiency
  • Wealth Transfer Structures
  • Retirement Planning
  • Investment Strategy, and
  • Long-Term Financial Architecture

 

Drawing from his own experience as a founder, business and real estate investor, and multi-generational family business member, he understands some of the challenges that can arise for business owners as they consider an exit. Multi-disciplinary, intentional planning with stakeholder communication creates structure, mitigates risk, addresses tax implications, and preempts issues that can arise.

Greg holds a Master of Science in Taxation, a graduate program that deepened his technical training in federal income taxation, partnership and corporate taxation, estate and gift tax, and tax procedure. This academic work enhances his ability to help families and business owners navigate complex tax environments and align their financial and estate-planning objectives across generations.

Designations:

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  • Chartered Life Underwriter®
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  • Series 65 registration held with Vertex Planning Partners, LLC
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Greg is deeply committed to lifelong learning and continuous professional development in the areas of tax, estate planning, and private-wealth strategy.

Michael D. Bellis, CFP®, CLU®

MANAGING PARTNER

Michael D. Bellis, CFP®, CLU® began his career as a financial planning professional in 1994. His practice is centered on holistic financial planning, astute risk management strategies and empirical, research-driven portfolio construction. He began his career in partnership with his father under the name Bellis & Associates. Together, their practice and reputation for excellence dates back more than 40 years and includes multiple generations of the same families. After his father’s retirement several years ago, Mike continued to build a client-centric, consultative practice before forming Vertex.

Mike holds the CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ certification and is also a Chartered Life Underwriter. He has been an active member of both the Society of Financial Services Professionals and the National Association of Insurance and Financial Advisors. He earned a B.S. in Business & Marketing from Illinois State University. Mike is a lifelong resident of Naperville, Illinois. He and his wife Tanja have three children.