Market Pullbacks and Achieving Portfolio Balance

The ongoing conflict in Iran and rising oil prices have been the primary drivers of stock market swings in recent weeks. Brent crude oil has climbed back above $100 per barrel, raising questions about whether higher energy costs could slow economic growth while also pushing inflation higher. This adds to existing concerns such as the impact of artificial intelligence on existing companies, broad market valuations, private credit, and the path of Federal Reserve policy. For investors, this can naturally create questions about the health of their portfolios.

The author Alfred A. Montapert once wrote “do not confuse motion and progress.” With markets experiencing daily swings due to global headlines, there can be a tendency to believe that portfolios and financial plans should be adjusted frequently. However, a key principle of proper planning is that by the time uncertainty strikes, the hard work has already been done. A well-constructed portfolio is one that holds an appropriate mix of complementary asset classes and is aligned to financial goals. This is designed to weather different types of market environments without the need for constant adjustment.

Still, markets that lack a clear direction can feel uncomfortable. In times like these, maintaining a level-headed perspective is critical when there is so much negativity in the news. It’s more important than ever to not lose sight of long-term goals, especially because saving and investing properly are still the best ways to grow wealth over time. What should investors keep in mind as uncertainty continues?

 

Market pullbacks are an unavoidable part of investing

The stock market has been choppy this year, with the S&P 500 sitting just about 5% below its all-time high reached back in January, as of mid-March. While some investors may feel unsettled by recent market moves, pullbacks around this size are completely normal. In fact, the average year experiences several declines of 5% or more over the course of weeks or months, before rebounding. In 2025, for example, there were six such pullbacks for the S&P 500 driven primarily by tariffs, yet the market still generated a total return of 18% for the year.

This is the foundation of why staying invested has historically been the best approach for long-term investors. Some may be tempted to time the market, but the challenge is not just knowing when to get out, but also when to get back in. The accompanying chart illustrates that even missing a single week after volatile days has historically been negative for investment outcomes. While there are no guarantees, this is historically because the market’s best days have occurred shortly after its worst days. Investors who stepped to the sidelines missed the very rebounds they were waiting for.

This is not to say that pullbacks are insignificant, or that markets always rebound quickly. Rather, it is that they are a recurring feature of investing that should be planned for, not reacted to.

 

Bond yields are attractive amid recent volatility

While the stock market gets most of the headlines, the bond market is just as important. The possibility of inflation is one of the key drivers of bonds, and higher oil prices have raised new questions in recent weeks. Adding to the uncertainty is the upcoming transition to a new Fed chair in May and questions about whether the central bank may adjust its rate path. At the moment, market-based measures expect only one rate cut by the end of this year.

Bonds are a core holding that often provide a counterbalance against stock market volatility. However, the conflict in the Middle East has also affected bonds, with the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index roughly flat year-to-date. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has jumped back above 4.2% after falling as low as 3.9% when the conflict in Iran began.

Perspective is needed since bonds have contributed positively after their historic pullback in 2022, when inflation and interest rates rose swiftly, generating strong returns from 2023 to 2025. Since the bottom in October 2022, the broad bond market has generated roughly 20% in total returns, with some individual sectors performing even better.

For long-term investors, bond yields remain attractive compared to the previous decade. Current bond yields offer meaningful income potential that was simply unavailable during much of the past decade. Specifically, the yield on the U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is 4.5%, well above the 2.9% average since 2009. Investing when yields are attractive is also historically correlated with healthy total returns, as shown in the accompanying chart.

This is especially true when compared to cash, where yields are still negative after adjusting for inflation. On average, $10,000 invested in certificates of deposit yields about $155 a year, which is still well below inflation of between 2.5% to 3%. For those in or near retirement, the applicable inflation rates may be even higher due to medical expenses and insurance. So, while cash may feel safe, a proper allocation to bonds is still the best way to generate income and support long-run growth.

It is also worth noting that there is growing concern around private credit, with reports of rising redemption requests and some larger funds limiting withdrawals. At its core, private credit is an asset class consisting of non-bank loans to companies. The sector has grown significantly in recent years and is tied to areas of market uncertainty such as technology and energy. Unlike public bonds, private credit is structured to be a long-term investment precisely because of this type of uncertainty. So, just like any other asset class, what matters for investors who hold private credit is whether it is appropriate for their portfolios and how it balances with other assets.

 

Having a portfolio perspective continues to benefit investors

While there are considerations across each asset class, the past few weeks highlight the power of properly constructed portfolios. Holding different types of investments, whether they are asset classes, specific sectors, or investing across different parts of the world, helps to smooth out portfolio performance during choppy periods, reducing the temptation to make sudden changes that can derail financial plans.

The accompanying chart highlights one of the most volatile periods in history during the pandemic in 2020. Different asset allocations behaved in unique ways, with those that were more balanced across asset classes experiencing smaller swings. While these portfolios all ended around the same level after this period, the real issue is whether investors would have overreacted when the stock market was down 20% or 30%.

Today, assets like commodities are leading the way due to energy and precious metals. However, this is not about trying to guess which asset class will outperform next and concentrating a portfolio in that area. Instead, it is about benefiting from the full range of market movements.

When one part of a portfolio struggles, another may provide balance. Over time, this approach has allowed investors to participate in growth while managing risk, which is ultimately what achieving long-term financial goals requires.

 

The bottom line?

Market volatility driven by oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty is uncomfortable but not unusual. Staying invested with a diversified portfolio remains a strategy to consider while working toward long term progress.

 

 

Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested in directly.

All investing involves risk, including loss of principal. No strategy assures success or protects against loss. The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted, and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.

Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rates rise and bonds are subject to availability and change in price.

Copyright (c) 2026 Clearnomics, Inc. All rights reserved. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the other information provided are subject to change without notice. All reports posted on or via www.clearnomics.com or any affiliated websites, applications, or services are issued without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific recipient and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future results. Company fundamentals and earnings may be mentioned occasionally, but should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the company’s stock. Predictions, forecasts, and estimates for any and all markets should not be construed as recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security–including mutual funds, futures contracts, and exchange traded funds, or any similar instruments. The text, images, and other materials contained or displayed in this report are proprietary to Clearnomics, Inc. and constitute valuable intellectual property. All unauthorized reproduction or other use of material from Clearnomics, Inc. shall be deemed willful infringement(s) of this copyright and other proprietary and intellectual property rights, including but not limited to, rights of privacy. Clearnomics, Inc. expressly reserves all rights in connection with its intellectual property, including without limitation the right to block the transfer of its products and services and/or to track usage thereof, through electronic tracking technology, and all other lawful means, now known or hereafter devised. Clearnomics, Inc. reserves the right, without further notice, to pursue to the fullest extent allowed by the law any and all criminal and civil remedies for the violation of its rights.

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Peter M. Babilla, CFP®, CRPS®

PARTNER

Peter Babilla brings 40 years of experience in investment management and fiduciary* financial consulting to Vertex Planning Partners, LLC.

Pete graduated from Indiana University in Bloomington, Indiana with a Bachelor’s of Science in Finance.

He began his career in 1983 with a focus on institutional fixed-income portfolio management, primarily working with community banks. After a decade serving institutional clients, Pete shifted his focus to working with individuals, families and business owners, providing guidance and education in all areas of Wealth Management.  Among his areas of focus are accumulation and retirement planning, investment management, risk management, and estate and wealth transfer.

Pete’s planning philosophy allows him to create a personalized program for clients, based on their own unique goals and circumstances.  The extensive investment and planning platform offered by Vertex enables him to create a highly customized program, tailored to each individual client.

Pete and his wife Suzanne have two children, and have resided in Wheaton, Illinois for the past 30 years.  He enjoys golf, reading, and traveling with his family.  Pete gives back as a past Board Member of the Epilepsy Foundation of Greater Chicago, where his focus is on improving the lives of those living with epilepsy.

Pete works as fiduciary for his clients and holds the CERTIFIED FIANANCIAL PLANNER™ (CFP®) designation and the Chartered Retirement Plan Specialist (CRPS®) designation.

JUSTIN J. D'AGOSTINO, CFP®, TPCP®, ChFC®, CRPC®

PARTNER

Justin D’Agostino joined Vertex Partners in 2019 and serves a select group of business owners and affluent families. He specializes in investments, financial planning, and succession planning. His interest and knowledge in providing comprehensive financial planning and wealth management services to clients was sparked when he worked at a boutique tax and wealth management firm in Michigan. He has nine years of experience in the financial services industry, and his mission is to provide every client with targeted, comprehensive financial advice and to help them implement customized strategies designed to move them closer to accomplishing their unique goals.

Justin attended Hillsdale College where he earned his BA in Accounting and Financial Management and was a member and captain of the football team. Justin is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ Professional, and holds the Tax Planning Certified Professional®, Chartered Financial Consultant® and Chartered Retirement Planning Counselor™ designations.

Justin and his wife, Alexandra, reside in Chicago, Illinois. He is an avid sports fan and enjoys golfing, playing soccer and spending summer weekends with his family.

Scott A. Sandee CFP®, CIMA®, CPWA®, CEPA

MANAGING PARTNER

Scott Sandee brings over 20 years of experience as Managing Partner. He is responsible for leading the firm’s efforts in assisting middle-market business owners and seven and eight-figure families to plan and realize financial goals based on their unique aspirations and situations.

With a privately held family business background, Scott has helped owners prepare for and execute a successful transition. In addition, he works with business owners and their advisors to develop financial strategies to maximize sales proceeds and minimize future taxes.

Before joining Vertex, Scott served in financial planning and investment strategy roles at Oxford Financial Group, Capital Group, and The Northern Trust Company, working with Chicago’s HNW/UHNW families clients.

Scott holds the Certified Financial Planner®, Certified Private Wealth Advisor®, Certified Investment Management Analyst®, and Certified Exit Planning Advisor designations. Scott earned his B.S. in Computer Science from Northern Illinois University, and his family resides in Wilmette, IL.

Julie Hupp CFP®, MBA

PARTNER

Julie Hupp, CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional, has worked in the accounting and corporate finance field since 1987. She began her career as a CPA with Deloitte & Touche, specializing in the financial needs of small businesses. Then spent the next 13 years in corporate financial planning and business development at Baxter and TAP Pharmaceuticals. Recognizing her passion for personal financial planning, Julie started her business in 2006 where she focuses on comprehensive financial planning strategies and implementation.

Julie graduated from University of Illinois with a BS in Accountancy. She received her Master’s in Management with a concentration in Finance from Northwestern University’s Kellogg School of Management in 1994.

Outside the office, Julie is the co-founder of the 12 Oaks Foundation, which has merged with Cal’s Angels, and is a former Board member. Julie enjoys cooking, reading, running, triathlons and doing almost anything outdoors. A great weekend is spending time with her husband and two adult kids boating at their lake house in Wisconsin.

Steven P. Franzen, CPA, PFS, CGMA

MANAGING PARTNER

Steven P. Franzen, CPA, PFS, CGMA is a public accountant and consultant with more than 23 years of experience helping individuals and businesses reduce their tax liability.  He began his career under the guidance of Patrick M. De Sio, CPA, CGMA and in 1996 became Mr. De Sio’s partner in De Sio, Franzen & Associates, Ltd. Steve’s expertise include entity design, complex tax strategies and multigenerational wealth transfer.  As Managing Partner, Steve conducts his practice under the philosophy that the client’s investment in their CPA should yield a return on that investment – most of the time that return is realized when working with clients on planning for their future. In an effort to increase the planning capabilities of the firm,  Steve formed Vertex Accounting Partners, LLC to ensure their guiding philosophy will continue well into the future.

Steve is a certified public accountant and has earned the professional designations of Personal Financial Specialist and Chartered Global Management Accountant.  He is a member of the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants and the Illinois CPA Society.  Steve earned a B.S. degree in accounting from Millikin University.  He and his wife Kristie live in Sugar Grove, IL with their three children.

Gregory P. Benner, CPWA®, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC®, AIF®, RMA®

MANAGING PARTNER

Greg Benner advises high-net-worth and ultra-high-net-worth business owners, individuals and families on advanced tax, risk management, retirement, estate planning, and wealth strategies.  

As a co-founder of Vertex Planning Partners, he works closely with clients, families, and their professional advisors—CPAs, attorneys, and business stakeholders—to implement thoughtful, durable planning strategies. His approach prioritizes clarity, coordination, and disciplined execution.

For twenty-four years, Greg’s work has focused on designing and coordinating multi-factor, integrated plans involving:

  • Tax Efficiency
  • Wealth Transfer Structures
  • Retirement Planning
  • Investment Strategy, and
  • Long-Term Financial Architecture

 

Drawing from his own experience as a founder, business and real estate investor, and multi-generational family business member, he understands some of the challenges that can arise for business owners as they consider an exit. Multi-disciplinary, intentional planning with stakeholder communication creates structure, mitigates risk, addresses tax implications, and preempts issues that can arise.

Greg holds a Master of Science in Taxation, a graduate program that deepened his technical training in federal income taxation, partnership and corporate taxation, estate and gift tax, and tax procedure. This academic work enhances his ability to help families and business owners navigate complex tax environments and align their financial and estate-planning objectives across generations.

Designations:

  • Certified Private Wealth Advisor®
  • Certified Financial Planner®
  • Chartered Financial Consultant®
  • Chartered Life Underwriter®
  • Accredited Investment Fiduciary®
  • Retirement Management Advisor®

 

Licenses:

  • Series 65 registration held with Vertex Planning Partners, LLC
    Illinois, Ohio, Wisconsin & Louisiana Life & Health Insurance License

 

Greg is deeply committed to lifelong learning and continuous professional development in the areas of tax, estate planning, and private-wealth strategy.

Michael D. Bellis, CFP®, CLU®

MANAGING PARTNER

Michael D. Bellis, CFP®, CLU® began his career as a financial planning professional in 1994. His practice is centered on holistic financial planning, astute risk management strategies and empirical, research-driven portfolio construction. He began his career in partnership with his father under the name Bellis & Associates. Together, their practice and reputation for excellence dates back more than 40 years and includes multiple generations of the same families. After his father’s retirement several years ago, Mike continued to build a client-centric, consultative practice before forming Vertex.

Mike holds the CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ certification and is also a Chartered Life Underwriter. He has been an active member of both the Society of Financial Services Professionals and the National Association of Insurance and Financial Advisors. He earned a B.S. in Business & Marketing from Illinois State University. Mike is a lifelong resident of Naperville, Illinois. He and his wife Tanja have three children.