Stock Market Sectors: How Oil and AI Affect Portfolios

When investors think about the stock market, they tend to focus on broad indices like the S&P 500 or Dow Jones Industrial Average. While this is a natural starting point, it’s often helpful to look one level deeper at the sectors within each index. For instance, the 11 sectors that make up the S&P 500 each have unique characteristics and can behave differently based on economic conditions and geopolitical developments. Understanding these dynamics is important for portfolio construction, diversification, and long-term financial planning.

In today’s environment, the difference between the best and worst performing sectors has widened to over 40 percentage points this year. This is a significant development driven by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, oil price swings, and the evolving narrative around AI.

At the moment, the S&P 500 also experienced its first pullback of more than 5% from its all-time high, even though 6 of the 11 sectors are positive so far this year. This is possible because the S&P 500 index does not weigh all sectors equally, with Technology currently making up nearly one-third of the index, compared to Energy and Utilities at just 3.5% and 2.5% respectively. Of course, while the past is no guarantee of the future, history also shows that conditions can change quickly and the market can recover, often when it’s least expected.

While the market dynamics of the past few months are impactful, the reality is that there is unique sector-level behavior every year. Taking a longer-term view, many sectors have performed well over the past few years, often in ways that surprised investors. This is a reminder that maintaining balance across sectors matters as much as doing so across asset classes. So, what perspective is needed to understand the recent sector rotation and market pullback?


The energy sector has surged amid geopolitical uncertainty

The energy sector has benefited from geopolitical risk so far in 2026, gaining around 30% year-to-date. This outperformance has been driven by a sharp rise in oil prices, with Brent crude hovering above $100 per barrel following escalating tensions in the Middle East. The story is still evolving, which could continue to drive market swings. Still, this has pushed energy stocks higher, something that has occurred throughout historical periods of geopolitical conflict.

For instance, in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine, the energy sector gained 65.7% for the full year while the broader S&P 500 declined 18%. The year before that, energy returned 54.6% as the economy rebounded from the pandemic. While the broad market did rebound from these historic episodes, they demonstrate how energy stocks have served as a counterweight during times of global uncertainty.

While prices originally rose this year due to the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, which forced many Middle East countries to scale back oil and gas production, recent attacks have targeted energy production infrastructure. Higher oil prices directly benefit producers by boosting revenues and encouraging further investment and exploration.

However, they also act as a headwind for the broader economy in the short run by raising costs for consumers, businesses, and many other sectors. This is why the same shock that supports energy stocks can weigh on transportation, consumer spending, and corporate profit margins elsewhere.

In the long run, there are reasons not to be overly pessimistic about higher oil prices. Between 2011 and 2014, oil prices sustained levels near $100 per barrel, and the economy still grew while the stock market continued its bull run. Economists often view these types of “supply-side shocks” as temporary, since eventually production will be restored and other suppliers will step in.

Specifically, the U.S. has been the world’s largest oil producer for six consecutive years, with output now exceeding 13.7 million barrels per day. The U.S. is often viewed as a “swing producer” since increased production can help offset shortages elsewhere. This can help moderate prices over time and reduce the economy’s vulnerability to foreign supply disruptions.

 

AI has raised new questions about technology companies

Over the past several years, AI stocks have led the market, driving significant gains across sectors like Information Technology, Communication Services, and Consumer Discretionary. The outperformance of these sectors, including the so-called Magnificent 7, has resulted in greater market concentration and sensitivity to just a handful of companies.

More recently, however, the narrative has shifted. While these companies continue to post strong earnings, other sectors have performed well over the past year, including Energy, Industrials, Utilities, Materials, and Consumer Staples. Some of these groups are perceived as more “defensive” and have benefited in this year’s market environment.

Part of the evolving story around technology stocks reflects growing questions about how AI will affect existing software business models. Some have dubbed this the “SaaS-pocalypse,” or the idea that AI tools could disrupt traditional software-as-a-service (SaaS) companies. This is an ongoing debate and whether or not these fears prove justified, they have already contributed to a reassessment of technology valuations.

This rotation doesn’t mean technology stocks are no longer important. Rather, it highlights how quickly market leadership can shift. This is why investors should be cautious about becoming overly concentrated in any single sector, no matter how compelling the growth story may seem at the time. After all, the purpose of a portfolio is not to chase the best performing index, sector, or stocks, but to generate healthy returns across market cycles that support financial plans.


Defensive sectors and broader diversification have supported portfolios

As uncertainty jumped over the past months, markets turned to traditionally defensive sectors such as Utilities, Consumer Staples, and to a lesser extent Health Care. This defensive leadership had been building before the recent escalation in the Middle East, suggesting that investors were already positioning for a more cautious environment amid AI concerns.

Defensive sectors tend to outperform when uncertainty and market volatility rise. This is not because these companies are suddenly posting exceptional financial results, but because their cash flows are generally more stable and less dependent on a strong economic cycle. Utilities still collect payments, consumers still buy groceries, and healthcare remains essential regardless of geopolitical developments. They also pay higher dividend yields, on average. This relative predictability is what makes them more attractive when markets start worrying about growth or inflation.

A related term that has been used for stocks that are less sensitive to AI concerns is “heavy assets, low obsolescence,” or HALO. These are companies that are often defensive in nature and produce goods or rely on manufacturing that is not easily disrupted by new technology developments.

Just as with asset classes, it is extremely difficult to predict which sector will lead or lag in any given year. The sector that tops the leaderboard one year often finds itself near the bottom the next. For example, technology’s recent struggles come after an extended period of market leadership. This unpredictability is why maintaining broad sector exposure is so important.

A well-diversified portfolio that includes cyclical sectors like energy, growth-oriented sectors like technology, and defensive sectors like utilities and consumer staples is better positioned to weather different market environments. Rather than trying to time sector rotations, which is just as counterproductive as timing the overall market, investors benefit from holding a balanced portfolio that can participate in gains across different parts of the economy while managing risk.

 

The bottom line?

The S&P 500’s performance this year is a reminder that maintaining balance across sectors is a key principle of long-term investing. Having exposure to many parts of the market is the best way to keep portfolios aligned with financial goals.

 

Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested in directly.

All investing involves risk, including loss of principal. No strategy assures success or protects against loss. The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted, and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.

Copyright (c) 2026 Clearnomics, Inc. All rights reserved. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the other information provided are subject to change without notice. All reports posted on or via www.clearnomics.com or any affiliated websites, applications, or services are issued without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular

needs of any specific recipient and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future results. Company fundamentals and earnings may be mentioned occasionally, but should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the company’s stock. Predictions, forecasts, and estimates for any and all markets should not be construed as recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security–including mutual funds, futures contracts, and exchange traded funds, or any similar instruments. The text, images, and other materials contained or displayed in this report are proprietary to Clearnomics, Inc. and constitute valuable intellectual property. All unauthorized reproduction or other use of material from Clearnomics, Inc. shall be deemed willful infringement(s) of this copyright and other proprietary and intellectual property rights, including but not limited to, rights of privacy. Clearnomics, Inc. expressly reserves all rights in connection with its intellectual property, including without limitation the right to block the transfer of its products and services and/or to track usage thereof, through electronic tracking technology, and all other lawful means, now known or hereafter devised. Clearnomics, Inc. reserves the right, without further notice, to pursue to the fullest extent allowed by the law any and all criminal and civil remedies for the violation of its rights.

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Peter M. Babilla, CFP®, CRPS®

PARTNER

Peter Babilla brings 40 years of experience in investment management and fiduciary* financial consulting to Vertex Planning Partners, LLC.

Pete graduated from Indiana University in Bloomington, Indiana with a Bachelor’s of Science in Finance.

He began his career in 1983 with a focus on institutional fixed-income portfolio management, primarily working with community banks. After a decade serving institutional clients, Pete shifted his focus to working with individuals, families and business owners, providing guidance and education in all areas of Wealth Management.  Among his areas of focus are accumulation and retirement planning, investment management, risk management, and estate and wealth transfer.

Pete’s planning philosophy allows him to create a personalized program for clients, based on their own unique goals and circumstances.  The extensive investment and planning platform offered by Vertex enables him to create a highly customized program, tailored to each individual client.

Pete and his wife Suzanne have two children, and have resided in Wheaton, Illinois for the past 30 years.  He enjoys golf, reading, and traveling with his family.  Pete gives back as a past Board Member of the Epilepsy Foundation of Greater Chicago, where his focus is on improving the lives of those living with epilepsy.

Pete works as fiduciary for his clients and holds the CERTIFIED FIANANCIAL PLANNER™ (CFP®) designation and the Chartered Retirement Plan Specialist (CRPS®) designation.

JUSTIN J. D'AGOSTINO, CFP®, TPCP®, ChFC®, CRPC®

PARTNER

Justin D’Agostino joined Vertex Partners in 2019 and serves a select group of business owners and affluent families. He specializes in investments, financial planning, and succession planning. His interest and knowledge in providing comprehensive financial planning and wealth management services to clients was sparked when he worked at a boutique tax and wealth management firm in Michigan. He has nine years of experience in the financial services industry, and his mission is to provide every client with targeted, comprehensive financial advice and to help them implement customized strategies designed to move them closer to accomplishing their unique goals.

Justin attended Hillsdale College where he earned his BA in Accounting and Financial Management and was a member and captain of the football team. Justin is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ Professional, and holds the Tax Planning Certified Professional®, Chartered Financial Consultant® and Chartered Retirement Planning Counselor™ designations.

Justin and his wife, Alexandra, reside in Chicago, Illinois. He is an avid sports fan and enjoys golfing, playing soccer and spending summer weekends with his family.

Scott A. Sandee CFP®, CIMA®, CPWA®, CEPA

MANAGING PARTNER

Scott Sandee brings over 20 years of experience as Managing Partner. He is responsible for leading the firm’s efforts in assisting middle-market business owners and seven and eight-figure families to plan and realize financial goals based on their unique aspirations and situations.

With a privately held family business background, Scott has helped owners prepare for and execute a successful transition. In addition, he works with business owners and their advisors to develop financial strategies to maximize sales proceeds and minimize future taxes.

Before joining Vertex, Scott served in financial planning and investment strategy roles at Oxford Financial Group, Capital Group, and The Northern Trust Company, working with Chicago’s HNW/UHNW families clients.

Scott holds the Certified Financial Planner®, Certified Private Wealth Advisor®, Certified Investment Management Analyst®, and Certified Exit Planning Advisor designations. Scott earned his B.S. in Computer Science from Northern Illinois University, and his family resides in Wilmette, IL.

Julie Hupp CFP®, MBA

PARTNER

Julie Hupp, CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional, has worked in the accounting and corporate finance field since 1987. She began her career as a CPA with Deloitte & Touche, specializing in the financial needs of small businesses. Then spent the next 13 years in corporate financial planning and business development at Baxter and TAP Pharmaceuticals. Recognizing her passion for personal financial planning, Julie started her business in 2006 where she focuses on comprehensive financial planning strategies and implementation.

Julie graduated from University of Illinois with a BS in Accountancy. She received her Master’s in Management with a concentration in Finance from Northwestern University’s Kellogg School of Management in 1994.

Outside the office, Julie is the co-founder of the 12 Oaks Foundation, which has merged with Cal’s Angels, and is a former Board member. Julie enjoys cooking, reading, running, triathlons and doing almost anything outdoors. A great weekend is spending time with her husband and two adult kids boating at their lake house in Wisconsin.

Steven P. Franzen, CPA, PFS, CGMA

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Steven P. Franzen, CPA, PFS, CGMA is a public accountant and consultant with more than 23 years of experience helping individuals and businesses reduce their tax liability.  He began his career under the guidance of Patrick M. De Sio, CPA, CGMA and in 1996 became Mr. De Sio’s partner in De Sio, Franzen & Associates, Ltd. Steve’s expertise include entity design, complex tax strategies and multigenerational wealth transfer.  As Managing Partner, Steve conducts his practice under the philosophy that the client’s investment in their CPA should yield a return on that investment – most of the time that return is realized when working with clients on planning for their future. In an effort to increase the planning capabilities of the firm,  Steve formed Vertex Accounting Partners, LLC to ensure their guiding philosophy will continue well into the future.

Steve is a certified public accountant and has earned the professional designations of Personal Financial Specialist and Chartered Global Management Accountant.  He is a member of the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants and the Illinois CPA Society.  Steve earned a B.S. degree in accounting from Millikin University.  He and his wife Kristie live in Sugar Grove, IL with their three children.

Gregory P. Benner, CPWA®, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC®, AIF®, RMA®

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Greg Benner advises high-net-worth and ultra-high-net-worth business owners, individuals and families on advanced tax, risk management, retirement, estate planning, and wealth strategies.  

As a co-founder of Vertex Planning Partners, he works closely with clients, families, and their professional advisors—CPAs, attorneys, and business stakeholders—to implement thoughtful, durable planning strategies. His approach prioritizes clarity, coordination, and disciplined execution.

For twenty-four years, Greg’s work has focused on designing and coordinating multi-factor, integrated plans involving:

  • Tax Efficiency
  • Wealth Transfer Structures
  • Retirement Planning
  • Investment Strategy, and
  • Long-Term Financial Architecture

 

Drawing from his own experience as a founder, business and real estate investor, and multi-generational family business member, he understands some of the challenges that can arise for business owners as they consider an exit. Multi-disciplinary, intentional planning with stakeholder communication creates structure, mitigates risk, addresses tax implications, and preempts issues that can arise.

Greg holds a Master of Science in Taxation, a graduate program that deepened his technical training in federal income taxation, partnership and corporate taxation, estate and gift tax, and tax procedure. This academic work enhances his ability to help families and business owners navigate complex tax environments and align their financial and estate-planning objectives across generations.

Designations:

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Greg is deeply committed to lifelong learning and continuous professional development in the areas of tax, estate planning, and private-wealth strategy.

Michael D. Bellis, CFP®, CLU®

MANAGING PARTNER

Michael D. Bellis, CFP®, CLU® began his career as a financial planning professional in 1994. His practice is centered on holistic financial planning, astute risk management strategies and empirical, research-driven portfolio construction. He began his career in partnership with his father under the name Bellis & Associates. Together, their practice and reputation for excellence dates back more than 40 years and includes multiple generations of the same families. After his father’s retirement several years ago, Mike continued to build a client-centric, consultative practice before forming Vertex.

Mike holds the CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ certification and is also a Chartered Life Underwriter. He has been an active member of both the Society of Financial Services Professionals and the National Association of Insurance and Financial Advisors. He earned a B.S. in Business & Marketing from Illinois State University. Mike is a lifelong resident of Naperville, Illinois. He and his wife Tanja have three children.