The Importance of Earnings for Long-Term Portfolios

As the corporate earnings season ramps up, markets are shifting their focus from geopolitical concerns to tangible evidence of how businesses are performing. With the stock market hovering near all-time highs, questions around valuations and the sustainability of recent profitability trends have become increasingly important.

While it’s still early in the reporting season, current Wall Street forecasts suggest companies finished 2025 with healthy growth, leading the S&P 500 earnings-per-share to reach a new record level. In many ways, earnings announcements are like report cards that provide information about how companies are performing and whether their strategies are working. Professional investors scrutinize these reports because they include important figures used to value companies, which in turn affect their stock and bond prices.

For long-term investors, strong earnings growth has been the main driver of stock market returns, resulting in long-term wealth creation for investors. However, the details of any single company’s results matter far less than how earnings trends impact overall portfolios. What truly matters is understanding what corporate profitability says about economic growth, consumer spending, business investment, and the sustainability of the current market environment. What should investors focus on as new earnings are announced?

 

Strong earnings growth supports portfolios

Corporate earnings are what connect the stock market to the economy, and ultimately to portfolios. When economists analyze GDP growth, the job market, or consumer spending, these factors affect investors through their impact on corporate profits. This is because a healthy economy usually leads to improved sales and earnings for companies, just as we have experienced over the past few years. Since owning stock entitles investors to a share of a company’s profits, share prices tend to appreciate when earnings grow.

This is not only true for the stocks of individual companies, but for the stock market as a whole. The accompanying chart shows that the stock market tends to follow the path of earnings over long periods of time. The fact that the U.S. economy is vibrant and has grown steadily is perhaps the most important reason for the long-term rise of the stock market.

In the first week, about 13% of S&P 500 companies reported their results for the fourth quarter of 2025, and 75% beat earnings expectations, according to FactSet data.1 The consensus is that earnings-per-share could grow by 8.2% across S&P 500 companies, which would represent the 10th consecutive quarter of earnings growth. When looking at 2025 as a whole, LSEG figures suggest that earnings grew by 13% and could grow by around 15% in 2026 and 2027. These are well above the historical average growth rate of 7.7%.

If these trends continue, they would represent healthy growth rates that support portfolios.

 

Valuations can improve when earnings grow

The earnings season also matters because it sheds light on stock market valuations. If earnings are the long-term driver of stock market returns, then valuations can help explain whether share prices are under- or over-valued in the short run. In other words, valuations are the gap between share prices and underlying fundamental measures such as earnings. For instance, the price-to-earnings ratio tells us how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of corporate earnings.

Today, the price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 stands at 22.2x, well above the historical average of 15.9x and not far from the dot-com bubble peak of 24.5x. While this is high, it is backed by healthy earnings growth, unlike during periods such as the dot-com boom when investors ignored profitability.

Understanding this connection helps put short-term market movements into perspective. When markets experience volatility, it’s often the case that earnings expectations don’t change. Instead, only prices, and thus valuations, are affected. This is why markets can often rebound quickly from short-term pullbacks if the underlying trends are unaffected. This is also why staying invested, or even investing more, during pullbacks can be helpful since this is when valuations are their most attractive.

Another way to understand earnings and valuations is to calculate how much they each contributed to stock market returns in 2025. The price of the S&P 500 index rose 16.4% last year, so if earnings-per-share did grow 13% over the full year, then it was by far the largest driver of growth. Specifically, earnings contributed to 80% of the price return whereas the increase in valuations contributed about 20%.

For long-term investors, this means that portfolios have done well primarily because companies have performed better, and not only because investors have been willing to pay more for stocks. That said, high valuations carry an important implication even if earnings growth remains strong. When stock prices reflect optimistic expectations about future earnings, there is often less margin for error, leading to larger market swings during periods of uncertainty. This is not a reason to avoid stocks, but instead highlights the importance of managing risk in portfolios.

 

AI investment continues driving capital spending

While backward-looking earnings results matter, the stock market determines prices by looking forward. Thus, guidance from company executives often drives market reactions, especially when it comes to important trends such as AI spending. Companies are investing heavily in the infrastructure needed to support AI applications, from data centers to computing hardware. This massive capital investment is reshaping not just the technology sector, but the broader economy as well.

For investors, this trend has multiple implications. Companies making these investments, often called “hyperscalers” due to their massive computing infrastructure, are betting on continued growth in AI adoption. If these bets pay off through increased demand for AI services and applications, the investments could drive substantial earnings growth for years to come. However, if adoption disappoints or takes longer than expected, companies may face pressure on profit margins and returns on invested capital. The chart above shows that earnings growth expectations vary across sectors, with the highest earnings growth expectations in the Information Technology sector.

While quarterly results are important, the full impact of AI on productivity and economic growth will take years to materialize. Patient investors who maintain long-term focus are better positioned to benefit from these trends than those who chase short-term performance or overreact to individual earnings reports.

 

The bottom line?

Strong corporate earnings have helped to support the stock market. With ongoing uncertainty and high valuations, investors should continue to focus on balancing their portfolios to manage risk while staying on track to achieve financial goals.

 

 

References

https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%2 0Insight/EarningsInsight_012326.pdf

 

Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested in directly.

All investing involves risk, including loss of principal. No strategy assures success or protects against loss. The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted, and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.

Copyright (c) 2026 Clearnomics, Inc. All rights reserved. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the other information provided are subject to change without notice. All reports posted on or via www.clearnomics.com or any affiliated websites, applications, or services are issued without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific recipient and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future results. Company fundamentals and earnings may be mentioned occasionally, but should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the company’s stock. Predictions, forecasts, and estimates for any and all markets should not be construed as recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security–including mutual funds, futures contracts, and exchange traded funds, or any similar instruments. The text, images, and other materials contained or displayed in this report are proprietary to Clearnomics, Inc. and constitute valuable intellectual property. All unauthorized reproduction or other use of material from Clearnomics, Inc. shall be deemed willful infringement(s) of this copyright and other proprietary and intellectual property rights, including but not limited to, rights of privacy. Clearnomics, Inc. expressly reserves all rights in connection with its intellectual property, including without limitation the right to block the transfer of its products and services and/or to track usage thereof, through electronic tracking technology, and all other lawful means, now known or hereafter devised. Clearnomics, Inc. reserves the right, without further notice, to pursue to the fullest extent allowed by the law any and all criminal and civil remedies for the violation of its rights.

 

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Peter M. Babilla, CFP®, CRPS®

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Peter Babilla brings 40 years of experience in investment management and fiduciary* financial consulting to Vertex Planning Partners, LLC.

Pete graduated from Indiana University in Bloomington, Indiana with a Bachelor’s of Science in Finance.

He began his career in 1983 with a focus on institutional fixed-income portfolio management, primarily working with community banks. After a decade serving institutional clients, Pete shifted his focus to working with individuals, families and business owners, providing guidance and education in all areas of Wealth Management.  Among his areas of focus are accumulation and retirement planning, investment management, risk management, and estate and wealth transfer.

Pete’s planning philosophy allows him to create a personalized program for clients, based on their own unique goals and circumstances.  The extensive investment and planning platform offered by Vertex enables him to create a highly customized program, tailored to each individual client.

Pete and his wife Suzanne have two children, and have resided in Wheaton, Illinois for the past 30 years.  He enjoys golf, reading, and traveling with his family.  Pete gives back as a past Board Member of the Epilepsy Foundation of Greater Chicago, where his focus is on improving the lives of those living with epilepsy.

Pete works as fiduciary for his clients and holds the CERTIFIED FIANANCIAL PLANNER™ (CFP®) designation and the Chartered Retirement Plan Specialist (CRPS®) designation.

JUSTIN J. D'AGOSTINO, CFP®, TPCP®, ChFC®, CRPC®

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Justin D’Agostino joined Vertex Partners in 2019 and serves a select group of business owners and affluent families. He specializes in investments, financial planning, and succession planning. His interest and knowledge in providing comprehensive financial planning and wealth management services to clients was sparked when he worked at a boutique tax and wealth management firm in Michigan. He has nine years of experience in the financial services industry, and his mission is to provide every client with targeted, comprehensive financial advice and to help them implement customized strategies designed to move them closer to accomplishing their unique goals.

Justin attended Hillsdale College where he earned his BA in Accounting and Financial Management and was a member and captain of the football team. Justin is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ Professional, and holds the Tax Planning Certified Professional®, Chartered Financial Consultant® and Chartered Retirement Planning Counselor™ designations.

Justin and his wife, Alexandra, reside in Chicago, Illinois. He is an avid sports fan and enjoys golfing, playing soccer and spending summer weekends with his family.

Scott A. Sandee CFP®, CIMA®, CPWA®, CEPA

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Scott Sandee brings over 20 years of experience as Managing Partner. He is responsible for leading the firm’s efforts in assisting middle-market business owners and seven and eight-figure families to plan and realize financial goals based on their unique aspirations and situations.

With a privately held family business background, Scott has helped owners prepare for and execute a successful transition. In addition, he works with business owners and their advisors to develop financial strategies to maximize sales proceeds and minimize future taxes.

Before joining Vertex, Scott served in financial planning and investment strategy roles at Oxford Financial Group, Capital Group, and The Northern Trust Company, working with Chicago’s HNW/UHNW families clients.

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Julie Hupp CFP®, MBA

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Julie Hupp, CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional, has worked in the accounting and corporate finance field since 1987. She began her career as a CPA with Deloitte & Touche, specializing in the financial needs of small businesses. Then spent the next 13 years in corporate financial planning and business development at Baxter and TAP Pharmaceuticals. Recognizing her passion for personal financial planning, Julie started her business in 2006 where she focuses on comprehensive financial planning strategies and implementation.

Julie graduated from University of Illinois with a BS in Accountancy. She received her Master’s in Management with a concentration in Finance from Northwestern University’s Kellogg School of Management in 1994.

Outside the office, Julie is the co-founder of the 12 Oaks Foundation, which has merged with Cal’s Angels, and is a former Board member. Julie enjoys cooking, reading, running, triathlons and doing almost anything outdoors. A great weekend is spending time with her husband and two adult kids boating at their lake house in Wisconsin.

Steven P. Franzen, CPA, PFS, CGMA

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Steven P. Franzen, CPA, PFS, CGMA is a public accountant and consultant with more than 23 years of experience helping individuals and businesses reduce their tax liability.  He began his career under the guidance of Patrick M. De Sio, CPA, CGMA and in 1996 became Mr. De Sio’s partner in De Sio, Franzen & Associates, Ltd. Steve’s expertise include entity design, complex tax strategies and multigenerational wealth transfer.  As Managing Partner, Steve conducts his practice under the philosophy that the client’s investment in their CPA should yield a return on that investment – most of the time that return is realized when working with clients on planning for their future. In an effort to increase the planning capabilities of the firm,  Steve formed Vertex Accounting Partners, LLC to ensure their guiding philosophy will continue well into the future.

Steve is a certified public accountant and has earned the professional designations of Personal Financial Specialist and Chartered Global Management Accountant.  He is a member of the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants and the Illinois CPA Society.  Steve earned a B.S. degree in accounting from Millikin University.  He and his wife Kristie live in Sugar Grove, IL with their three children.

Gregory P. Benner, CPWA®, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC®, AIF®, RMA®

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Gregory P. Benner, CPWA®, CFP®, ChFC®, CLU®, AIF®, RMA® has over twenty-two years of experience as a financial advisor. Greg’s practice is based on developing holistic financial plans that help his clients integrate sophisticated retirement, tax, risk management and estate planning strategies into an actionable plan, then stay the course as their behavioral coach.

Prior to founding Vertex Planning Partners, LLC, Greg spent four years as a founding partner of a Registered Investment Advisory firm affiliated with LPL Financial. He also spent seven years with JPMorgan Chase as a Senior Financial Advisor and was a Financial Representative with Northwestern Mutual Life.

Greg holds the Certified Private Wealth Advisor® designation and is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ Certificant. He also holds the Chartered Financial Consultant®, Chartered Life Underwriter®, Accredited Investment Fiduciary™, and Retirement Management AdvisorSM designations. He earned a B.S. in Finance from Miami University and a Master of Science in Taxation (MST) from the University of Cincinnati.

He and his wife Lindsey reside in Naperville, IL with their daughter and twin sons.

Michael D. Bellis, CFP®, CLU®

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Michael D. Bellis, CFP®, CLU® began his career as a financial planning professional in 1994. His practice is centered on holistic financial planning, astute risk management strategies and empirical, research-driven portfolio construction. He began his career in partnership with his father under the name Bellis & Associates. Together, their practice and reputation for excellence dates back more than 40 years and includes multiple generations of the same families. After his father’s retirement several years ago, Mike continued to build a client-centric, consultative practice before forming Vertex.

Mike holds the CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ certification and is also a Chartered Life Underwriter. He has been an active member of both the Society of Financial Services Professionals and the National Association of Insurance and Financial Advisors. He earned a B.S. in Business & Marketing from Illinois State University. Mike is a lifelong resident of Naperville, Illinois. He and his wife Tanja have three children.