Inflation and Social Security COLA: Managing Purchasing Power

The annual Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) is one of the most important developments for retirees and consumers. Not only does it affect Social Security recipients directly since it determines the increase in benefits next year, but it also reflects the broader inflationary trends affecting all consumers and investors. This is especially important today as inflation continues to add pressure to many households.

The Social Security Administration recently announced a 3.6% COLA for 2027, one of the highest in recent decades. While this is a healthy increase on paper, the reality is that this adjustment is one part of an overall strategy for maintaining purchasing power as prices rise. For long-term investors, it is important to understand what is driving inflation, what it means for cash yields, and how it affects portfolios.

 

The 2027 COLA reflects higher energy prices

Inflation has faced two competing trends over the past year. Overall inflationary pressures from the pandemic period have been improving, with the Consumer Price Index decelerating from a peak of 9.1% year-over-year in 2022 to 2.7% at the start of 2026. However, rising energy prices due to the war in Iran have pushed inflation higher in recent months, with the latest CPI figure showing that prices have risen 3.7% over the past year.1 So, while the overall inflation trends have been positive, higher energy prices have raised costs for consumers more recently.

This is why the COLA adjustment for 2027 of 3.6% is the fifth-largest increase in over 35 years, and the highest since the 8.7% adjustment that took effect in 2023. To put this figure in historical context, it is also well above the 3.1% average COLA over the past decade.2

COLA is calculated using a version of the Consumer Price Index known as the CPI-W, which focuses on “urban wage earners and clerical workers.” This index compares price levels in the third quarter of the current year against the same period a year earlier. The challenge is that it’s difficult for one number to reflect the needs of all retirees. For example, the latest COLA figure means that the average Social Security recipient will see approximately $75 more per month beginning in January 2027.3 While this is positive, it may not be enough to fully offset inflation for many retirees due to rising costs for healthcare, prescription drugs, and other necessities.

By comparison, there is also an experimental measure known as CPI-E, or the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly. Its objective is to track households headed by adults aged 62 and older, and it has been proposed by some as a more appropriate benchmark of spending patterns among seniors. Since seniors spend a larger share of their income on inflation-sensitive areas such as healthcare and housing, CPI-E generally rises faster than CPI-W. For example, from January 1985 to January 2025, CPI-E rose 221% while the CPI-W increased 197%.4 That said, no single index can perfectly capture every household’s experience.

For retirees enrolled in Medicare, it is also worth noting that the monthly Part B premium, which covers outpatient care, is projected to rise by $6.60 to $209.50.5 Since this amount is typically deducted from Social Security checks, it could partially offset the COLA increase for those affected. Part D prescription drug plan costs are also rising, and while lower-cost options remain available, these increases add another layer of complexity to the net benefit calculation. The actual increase in purchasing power for many retirees could be smaller than the headline percentage suggests.

 

Consumer spending is supporting broad economic growth

When it comes to broader economic trends, inflation continues to impact many parts of the economy. Headline CPI rose 3.7% year-over-year in September, with gasoline prices accounting for more than half of the monthly increase with a surge of 9.1%. In contrast, core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose only 2.6%.6

These figures suggest that the primary driver of today’s inflation is still energy, rather than broad-based price pressures spreading across the entire economy. An even narrower measure of the Consumer Price Index, sometimes called “supercore” inflation since it excludes food, shelter, and energy, rose only 2.0%.7 Other inflation measures paint a similar picture.

It’s natural for higher inflation to hurt consumer sentiment, which has fallen to historic lows. Despite this, many measures of consumer spending continue to be strong. Retail sales, for example, showed a significant growth rate of 6.3% over the past year in September.8 However, this is also in part due to inflation, since gasoline accounted for approximately 71% of the monthly increase.

All of these factors influence real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, which is calculated to exclude the effects of inflation. Despite higher inflation and uncertainty in the labor market, consumer spending has been strong, as shown in the chart above.9 Business investment has also remained steady, supported in part by ongoing AI-related capital spending on data centers and infrastructure. Together, these factors have helped to support broad economic growth, corporate profits, and financial markets, despite many ongoing challenges.

 

Cash yields are still lagging behind inflation

While economic growth continues to be stable, the combination of inflation and higher interest rates creates additional challenges for long-term investors. Even though nominal interest rates are elevated compared to much of the past decade, the inflation-adjusted yields on cash remain lower than many investors might expect, especially with the Fed raising policy rates.

For example, the chart above shows the interest income on cash, calculated using the average yields on six-month certificates of deposit, according to the FDIC. While these rates are higher than in the past, they are still not keeping pace with inflation. Of course, specific products and vehicles may have higher-than-average rates, but managing these products, ensuring that they are rolled over properly, and monitoring the overall rate environment are necessary. This means maintaining the purchasing power of savings continues to be a challenge, underscoring the importance of sticking to a long-term financial plan and holding a portfolio that can generate inflation-adjusted returns.

This is why, for many investors, looking beyond cash and annual benefits adjustments remains important for overcoming inflation. A balanced portfolio including allocations to stocks and bonds, when structured properly, can potentially offer more attractive real returns than cash alone. Investment-grade corporate bonds, for example, currently offer yields that are well above their long-run historical averages.

 

The bottom line?

The 2027 Social Security COLA of 3.6% is a reminder that inflation remains a real challenge due to higher energy prices. Maintaining a balanced portfolio that doesn’t only rely on cash or benefit adjustments alone continues to be the best way to maintain and grow purchasing power.

 

 

References

  1. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.htm
  2. Clearnomics research using Social Security Administration data, as of October 18, 2026
  3. https://www.ssa.gov/news/en/press/releases/2026-10-14.html
  4. https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IF12675
  5. https://www.cms.gov/oact/tr/2026
  6. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.htm
  7. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.htm
  8. Clearnomics research using U.S. Census Bureau data, as of October 18, 2026
  9. Clearnomics research using BEA data, as of October 18, 2026

 

 

Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested in directly.

All investing involves risk, including loss of principal. No strategy assures success or protects against loss. The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted, and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful. Copyright (c) 2026 Clearnomics, Inc. All rights reserved. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the other information provided are subject to change without notice. All reports posted on or via www.clearnomics.com or any affiliated websites, applications, or services are issued without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific recipient and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future results. Company fundamentals and earnings may be mentioned occasionally, but should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the company’s stock. Predictions, forecasts, and estimates for any and all markets should not be construed as recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security–including mutual funds, futures contracts, and exchange traded funds, or any similar instruments. The text, images, and other materials contained or displayed in this report are proprietary to Clearnomics, Inc. and constitute valuable intellectual property. All unauthorized reproduction or other use of material from Clearnomics, Inc. shall be deemed willful infringement(s) of this copyright and other proprietary and intellectual property rights, including but not limited to, rights of privacy. Clearnomics, Inc. expressly reserves all rights in connection with its intellectual property, including without limitation the right to block the transfer of its products and services and/or to track usage thereof, through electronic tracking technology, and all other lawful means, now known or hereafter devised. Clearnomics, Inc. reserves the right, without further notice, to pursue to the fullest extent allowed by the law any and all criminal and civil remedies for the violation of its rights.

 

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Peter M. Babilla, CFP®, CRPS®

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Peter Babilla brings 40 years of experience in investment management and fiduciary* financial consulting to Vertex Planning Partners, LLC.

Pete graduated from Indiana University in Bloomington, Indiana with a Bachelor’s of Science in Finance.

He began his career in 1983 with a focus on institutional fixed-income portfolio management, primarily working with community banks. After a decade serving institutional clients, Pete shifted his focus to working with individuals, families and business owners, providing guidance and education in all areas of Wealth Management.  Among his areas of focus are accumulation and retirement planning, investment management, risk management, and estate and wealth transfer.

Pete’s planning philosophy allows him to create a personalized program for clients, based on their own unique goals and circumstances.  The extensive investment and planning platform offered by Vertex enables him to create a highly customized program, tailored to each individual client.

Pete and his wife Suzanne have two children, and have resided in Wheaton, Illinois for the past 30 years.  He enjoys golf, reading, and traveling with his family.  Pete gives back as a past Board Member of the Epilepsy Foundation of Greater Chicago, where his focus is on improving the lives of those living with epilepsy.

Pete works as fiduciary for his clients and holds the CERTIFIED FIANANCIAL PLANNER™ (CFP®) designation and the Chartered Retirement Plan Specialist (CRPS®) designation.

Justin J. D'Agostino, CPWA®, CFP® , TPCP®, ChFC®, CRPC®

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Justin D’Agostino is a Partner and Private Wealth Advisor at Vertex Planning Partners, advising business owners, executives, and high-net-worth families on investments, financial planning, tax and succession planning.

He coordinates the full advisory team around each client to keep tax, investment, and planning decisions moving in the same direction. Justin’s approach centers on rigorous, data-driven analysis — modeling outcomes across planning scenarios so clients can make decisions with clarity.

With over a decade of experience, Justin’s work focuses on:

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  • Equity Compensation & Concentrated Stock
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Justin attended Hillsdale College, where he earned his BA in Accounting and Financial Management. He is an avid sports fan and enjoys spending weekends with his family.

Designations:

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Justin does not provide tax or legal advice. He works alongside each client’s CPA and attorney on those matters.

CRPC conferred by College for Financial Planning.

Scott A. Sandee CFP®, CIMA®, CPWA®, CEPA

MANAGING PARTNER

Scott Sandee brings over 20 years of experience to his role as Managing Partner of Vertex Planning Partners, leading the firm’s efforts to assist middle-market business owners and eight and nine-figure families in comprehensive planning. We enable clients to achieve their financial goals by tailoring solutions to their unique aspirations and situations. Leveraging his experience in sophisticated investment techniques and financial strategies with privately held family businesses, supported by extensive post-graduate education focused on exit planning, wealth management, estate planning, investment analysis, insurance planning, risk management, and tax optimization, he:

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Scott guides successful entrepreneurs and wealthy families through the transfer of ownership of their privately held companies.

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Julie Hupp CFP®, MBA

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Julie Hupp, CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional, has worked in the accounting and corporate finance field since 1987. She began her career as a CPA with Deloitte & Touche, specializing in the financial needs of small businesses. Then spent the next 13 years in corporate financial planning and business development at Baxter and TAP Pharmaceuticals. Recognizing her passion for personal financial planning, Julie started her business in 2006 where she focuses on comprehensive financial planning strategies and implementation.

Julie graduated from University of Illinois with a BS in Accountancy. She received her Master’s in Management with a concentration in Finance from Northwestern University’s Kellogg School of Management in 1994.

Outside the office, Julie is the co-founder of the 12 Oaks Foundation, which has merged with Cal’s Angels, and is a former Board member. Julie enjoys cooking, reading, running, triathlons and doing almost anything outdoors. A great weekend is spending time with her husband and two adult kids boating at their lake house in Wisconsin.

Steven P. Franzen, CPA, PFS, CGMA

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Steven P. Franzen, CPA, PFS, CGMA is a public accountant and consultant with more than 23 years of experience helping individuals and businesses reduce their tax liability.  He began his career under the guidance of Patrick M. De Sio, CPA, CGMA and in 1996 became Mr. De Sio’s partner in De Sio, Franzen & Associates, Ltd. Steve’s expertise include entity design, complex tax strategies and multigenerational wealth transfer.  As Managing Partner, Steve conducts his practice under the philosophy that the client’s investment in their CPA should yield a return on that investment – most of the time that return is realized when working with clients on planning for their future. In an effort to increase the planning capabilities of the firm,  Steve formed Vertex Accounting Partners, LLC to ensure their guiding philosophy will continue well into the future.

Steve is a certified public accountant and has earned the professional designations of Personal Financial Specialist and Chartered Global Management Accountant.  He is a member of the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants and the Illinois CPA Society.  Steve earned a B.S. degree in accounting from Millikin University.  He and his wife Kristie live in Sugar Grove, IL with their three children.

Gregory P. Benner, MST, CPWA®, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC®, AIF®, RMA®

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Greg Benner advises high-net-worth and ultra-high-net-worth business owners, individuals and families on advanced tax, risk management, retirement, estate planning, and wealth strategies.  

As a co-founder of Vertex Planning Partners, he works closely with clients, families, and their professional advisors—CPAs, attorneys, and business stakeholders—to implement thoughtful, durable planning strategies. His approach prioritizes clarity, coordination, and disciplined execution.

For twenty-four years, Greg’s work has focused on designing and coordinating multi-factor, integrated plans involving:

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  • Retirement Planning
  • Investment Strategy, and
  • Long-Term Financial Architecture

 

Drawing from his own experience as a founder, business and real estate investor, and multi-generational family business member, he understands some of the challenges that can arise for business owners as they consider an exit. Multi-disciplinary, intentional planning with stakeholder communication creates structure, mitigates risk, addresses tax implications, and preempts issues that can arise.

Greg holds a Master of Science in Taxation, a graduate program that deepened his technical training in federal income taxation, partnership and corporate taxation, estate and gift tax, and tax procedure. This academic work enhances his ability to help families and business owners navigate complex tax environments and align their financial and estate-planning objectives across generations.

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Greg is deeply committed to lifelong learning and continuous professional development in the areas of tax, estate planning, and private-wealth strategy.

Michael D. Bellis, CFP®, CLU®

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Michael D. Bellis, CFP®, CLU® began his career as a financial planning professional in 1994. His practice is centered on holistic financial planning, astute risk management strategies and empirical, research-driven portfolio construction. He began his career in partnership with his father under the name Bellis & Associates. Together, their practice and reputation for excellence dates back more than 40 years and includes multiple generations of the same families. After his father’s retirement several years ago, Mike continued to build a client-centric, consultative practice before forming Vertex.

Mike holds the CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ certification and is also a Chartered Life Underwriter. He has been an active member of both the Society of Financial Services Professionals and the National Association of Insurance and Financial Advisors. He earned a B.S. in Business & Marketing from Illinois State University. Mike is a lifelong resident of Naperville, Illinois. He and his wife Tanja have three children.