Beyond the Headlines: Fed Rate Hikes and Long-Term Portfolios

Janet Yellen, the former Federal Reserve Chair, often said that “monetary policy is not a panacea.”1 Just as there is no cure for the common cold, except to let it run its course and address the symptoms, the Fed’s tools often cannot fix the underlying issues in the economy. In theory, monetary policy is meant to help ease these challenges, especially when it comes to the job market and inflation. In practice, however, the Fed does not control the economy directly, but instead responds to the economic environment.

Today, the primary challenge is stubborn inflation. For the most part, this is due to higher oil prices as the war in Iran continues, prolonging the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and other issues in the region. Clearly, the Fed cannot control these geopolitical issues with interest rate policy. However, they can try to ensure that inflation does not spread beyond energy prices into other categories that affect consumers and businesses. How does seeing the Fed through this lens affect long-term investors and their portfolios?

 

The Fed’s latest rate hike was anticipated by investors

At its September meeting, the Fed decided to raise policy rates by one-quarter of a percent, to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%. This was the first hike in three years and followed a period of rate cuts from September 2024 to December 2025. This decision was widely anticipated by investors, so while there were some market swings immediately after the announcement, the market took the move in stride overall.2

What makes this hike different? The Fed is mostly reacting to higher energy prices, particularly with oil still around $100 per barrel. Economists often refer to this as “cost-push inflation,” which simply means that supply disruptions have led to higher prices. This is in contrast to “demand-pull inflation,” which occurs when an overheating economy drives excessive consumer demand, which then pushes prices higher.

In 2022, for instance, the economy experienced both scenarios, with low interest rates and government stimulus driving inflation on the demand side, while supply disruptions due to the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine led to supply shocks. Typically, economists and policymakers view supply-side shocks as temporary, since they should eventually be resolved. In the case of oil, prices did eventually fall until this year’s geopolitical events.

Over the past few cycles, the Fed has preferred to change policy in a steady, well-communicated fashion. This practice, often referred to as “forward guidance,” was designed to provide clarity on the likely path of rates, especially during economic emergencies. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, however, prefers to avoid this approach, and has declined to submit his own forecasts to the Fed’s quarterly Summary of Economic Projections.3

Instead, his goal is for markets to react to the underlying data, not what the Fed will do next. This is one reason investors expected this rate hike with over a 90% probability prior to the Fed meeting.4 Regardless of whether this is the right or wrong approach, this means the underlying data, when it comes to the labor market, inflation, and growth, are even more important for understanding the environment. While inflation remains higher than many would prefer, unemployment is still historically low, and GDP growth has been steady.

 

Rate hikes are a normal part of the economic cycle

This is one reason the Fed only raised rates by 0.25%. At the moment, projections by other Fed officials suggest that the central bank could raise rates once more later this year before pausing through 2027. Then rates might only decline slowly from there. This is a change from the Fed’s previous forecasts in June when they believed rates would be lower. At the same time, it’s important to take these figures with a grain of salt since they can quickly change from meeting to meeting depending on the underlying economic trends.

It’s understandable that some investors view higher interest rates as being negative for markets. In reality, this depends on why the Fed is raising rates. It’s not at all unusual for markets and interest rates to move higher together, especially later in the business cycle.

For instance, a growing economy and strong corporate earnings can support both rising stock prices and a Fed that is trying to keep inflation in check. Over the past six months, major indices including the S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the Nasdaq have all moved toward new all-time highs, supported by strong corporate earnings and the buildout of AI data centers, even as interest rates have also risen to multi-decade highs.

There is also a misconception that the Fed’s role is to fine-tune the economy. This view was partly created by the Fed itself, especially during Alan Greenspan’s tenure from the late-1980s to the mid-2000s, when the Fed’s decisions were opaque. In practice, the Fed is more often reacting to events than sitting comfortably in the driver’s seat. The chart above shows how rate hikes have played out across many different environments, underscoring that these rate moves often occur over long cycles.

 

Staying invested is the best way to address inflation in the long run

Ultimately, investors care about Fed policy and interest rates because of the impact on their portfolios and financial plans. While the Fed attracts a great deal of attention, its decisions are only one part of the picture.

The accompanying chart shows how financial markets have supported investors over the past century despite countless Fed decisions, economic shocks, recessions, geopolitical challenges, and other events that were significant at the time. Throughout this period, inflation pushed costs higher by 19 times, so what used to cost $1 in 1926 now costs $19. Despite this, stocks and bonds both significantly outpaced inflation rates. For those who stayed invested, this supported portfolios to generate income and create wealth over time.5

Of course, markets never move in straight lines, and investors should always be prepared for uncertainty. This is why maintaining an appropriate portfolio that reflects long-term financial plans remains far more important than trying to predict or time the Fed’s next decision.

 

The bottom line?

The Fed’s latest rate hike reflects inflation due to higher oil prices. Investors are best served by focusing on long-term goals and maintaining balanced portfolios rather than reacting to each Fed decision.

 

 

References

  1. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20170303a.htm
  2. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20260916a1.pdf
  3. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/warsh20260828a.htm
  4. Clearnomics research and CME Group data, as of September 16, 2026
  5. Clearnomics research using Bureau of Labor Statistics and Standard & Poor’s data, as of September 18, 2026

 

Index Descriptions S&P 500

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries. The modern design of the S&P 500 stock index was first launched in 1957. Performance prior to 1957 incorporates the performance of the predecessor index, the S&P 90.

 

Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested in directly.

All investing involves risk, including loss of principal. No strategy assures success or protects against loss. The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted, and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.

Copyright (c) 2026 Clearnomics, Inc. All rights reserved. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the other information provided are subject to change without notice. All reports posted on or via www.clearnomics.com or any affiliated websites, applications, or services are issued without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific recipient and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future results. Company fundamentals and earnings may be mentioned occasionally, but should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the company’s stock. Predictions, forecasts, and estimates for any and all markets should not be construed as recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security–including mutual funds, futures contracts, and exchange traded funds, or any similar instruments. The text, images, and other materials contained or displayed in this report are proprietary to Clearnomics, Inc. and constitute valuable intellectual property. All unauthorized reproduction or other use of material from Clearnomics, Inc. shall be deemed willful infringement(s) of this copyright and other proprietary and intellectual property rights, including but not limited to, rights of privacy. Clearnomics, Inc. expressly reserves all rights in connection with its intellectual property, including without limitation the right to block the transfer of its products and services and/or to track usage thereof, through electronic tracking technology, and all other lawful means, now known or hereafter devised. Clearnomics, Inc. reserves the right, without further notice, to pursue to the fullest extent allowed by the law any and all criminal and civil remedies for the violation of its rights.

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Peter M. Babilla, CFP®, CRPS®

PARTNER

Peter Babilla brings 40 years of experience in investment management and fiduciary* financial consulting to Vertex Planning Partners, LLC.

Pete graduated from Indiana University in Bloomington, Indiana with a Bachelor’s of Science in Finance.

He began his career in 1983 with a focus on institutional fixed-income portfolio management, primarily working with community banks. After a decade serving institutional clients, Pete shifted his focus to working with individuals, families and business owners, providing guidance and education in all areas of Wealth Management.  Among his areas of focus are accumulation and retirement planning, investment management, risk management, and estate and wealth transfer.

Pete’s planning philosophy allows him to create a personalized program for clients, based on their own unique goals and circumstances.  The extensive investment and planning platform offered by Vertex enables him to create a highly customized program, tailored to each individual client.

Pete and his wife Suzanne have two children, and have resided in Wheaton, Illinois for the past 30 years.  He enjoys golf, reading, and traveling with his family.  Pete gives back as a past Board Member of the Epilepsy Foundation of Greater Chicago, where his focus is on improving the lives of those living with epilepsy.

Pete works as fiduciary for his clients and holds the CERTIFIED FIANANCIAL PLANNER™ (CFP®) designation and the Chartered Retirement Plan Specialist (CRPS®) designation.

Justin J. D'Agostino, CPWA®, CFP® , TPCP®, ChFC®, CRPC®

PARTNER

Justin D’Agostino is a Partner and Private Wealth Advisor at Vertex Planning Partners, advising business owners, executives, and high-net-worth families on investments, financial planning, tax and succession planning.

He coordinates the full advisory team around each client to keep tax, investment, and planning decisions moving in the same direction. Justin’s approach centers on rigorous, data-driven analysis — modeling outcomes across planning scenarios so clients can make decisions with clarity.

With over a decade of experience, Justin’s work focuses on:

  • Investment & Portfolio Strategy
  • Tax-Efficient Planning
  • Equity Compensation & Concentrated Stock
  • Retirement & Distribution Planning
  • Estate & Succession Planning

Justin attended Hillsdale College, where he earned his BA in Accounting and Financial Management. He is an avid sports fan and enjoys spending weekends with his family.

Designations:

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  • Chartered Financial Consultant®
  • Chartered Retirement Planning Counselor™

 

Justin does not provide tax or legal advice. He works alongside each client’s CPA and attorney on those matters.

CRPC conferred by College for Financial Planning.

Scott A. Sandee CFP®, CIMA®, CPWA®, CEPA

MANAGING PARTNER

Scott Sandee brings over 20 years of experience to his role as Managing Partner of Vertex Planning Partners, leading the firm’s efforts to assist middle-market business owners and eight and nine-figure families in comprehensive planning. We enable clients to achieve their financial goals by tailoring solutions to their unique aspirations and situations. Leveraging his experience in sophisticated investment techniques and financial strategies with privately held family businesses, supported by extensive post-graduate education focused on exit planning, wealth management, estate planning, investment analysis, insurance planning, risk management, and tax optimization, he:

  • Assist owners in preparing for and executing a successful transition.
  • Develop financial strategies to maximize sales proceeds and reduce future taxes.
  • Listen carefully and create personalized solutions that reflect each client’s unique hopes, goals, and concerns.
  • Explain complex and technical concepts with clarity and simplicity.

 

Scott guides successful entrepreneurs and wealthy families through the transfer of ownership of their privately held companies.

Designations: Certified Financial Planner® Certified Private Wealth Advisor® Certified Investment Management Analyst® Certified Exit Planning Advisor Certified Merger & Acquisition Advisor

Julie Hupp CFP®, MBA

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Julie Hupp, CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional, has worked in the accounting and corporate finance field since 1987. She began her career as a CPA with Deloitte & Touche, specializing in the financial needs of small businesses. Then spent the next 13 years in corporate financial planning and business development at Baxter and TAP Pharmaceuticals. Recognizing her passion for personal financial planning, Julie started her business in 2006 where she focuses on comprehensive financial planning strategies and implementation.

Julie graduated from University of Illinois with a BS in Accountancy. She received her Master’s in Management with a concentration in Finance from Northwestern University’s Kellogg School of Management in 1994.

Outside the office, Julie is the co-founder of the 12 Oaks Foundation, which has merged with Cal’s Angels, and is a former Board member. Julie enjoys cooking, reading, running, triathlons and doing almost anything outdoors. A great weekend is spending time with her husband and two adult kids boating at their lake house in Wisconsin.

Steven P. Franzen, CPA, PFS, CGMA

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Steven P. Franzen, CPA, PFS, CGMA is a public accountant and consultant with more than 23 years of experience helping individuals and businesses reduce their tax liability.  He began his career under the guidance of Patrick M. De Sio, CPA, CGMA and in 1996 became Mr. De Sio’s partner in De Sio, Franzen & Associates, Ltd. Steve’s expertise include entity design, complex tax strategies and multigenerational wealth transfer.  As Managing Partner, Steve conducts his practice under the philosophy that the client’s investment in their CPA should yield a return on that investment – most of the time that return is realized when working with clients on planning for their future. In an effort to increase the planning capabilities of the firm,  Steve formed Vertex Accounting Partners, LLC to ensure their guiding philosophy will continue well into the future.

Steve is a certified public accountant and has earned the professional designations of Personal Financial Specialist and Chartered Global Management Accountant.  He is a member of the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants and the Illinois CPA Society.  Steve earned a B.S. degree in accounting from Millikin University.  He and his wife Kristie live in Sugar Grove, IL with their three children.

Gregory P. Benner, MST, CPWA®, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC®, AIF®, RMA®

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Greg Benner advises high-net-worth and ultra-high-net-worth business owners, individuals and families on advanced tax, risk management, retirement, estate planning, and wealth strategies.  

As a co-founder of Vertex Planning Partners, he works closely with clients, families, and their professional advisors—CPAs, attorneys, and business stakeholders—to implement thoughtful, durable planning strategies. His approach prioritizes clarity, coordination, and disciplined execution.

For twenty-four years, Greg’s work has focused on designing and coordinating multi-factor, integrated plans involving:

  • Tax Efficiency
  • Wealth Transfer Structures
  • Retirement Planning
  • Investment Strategy, and
  • Long-Term Financial Architecture

 

Drawing from his own experience as a founder, business and real estate investor, and multi-generational family business member, he understands some of the challenges that can arise for business owners as they consider an exit. Multi-disciplinary, intentional planning with stakeholder communication creates structure, mitigates risk, addresses tax implications, and preempts issues that can arise.

Greg holds a Master of Science in Taxation, a graduate program that deepened his technical training in federal income taxation, partnership and corporate taxation, estate and gift tax, and tax procedure. This academic work enhances his ability to help families and business owners navigate complex tax environments and align their financial and estate-planning objectives across generations.

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Greg is deeply committed to lifelong learning and continuous professional development in the areas of tax, estate planning, and private-wealth strategy.

Michael D. Bellis, CFP®, CLU®

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Michael D. Bellis, CFP®, CLU® began his career as a financial planning professional in 1994. His practice is centered on holistic financial planning, astute risk management strategies and empirical, research-driven portfolio construction. He began his career in partnership with his father under the name Bellis & Associates. Together, their practice and reputation for excellence dates back more than 40 years and includes multiple generations of the same families. After his father’s retirement several years ago, Mike continued to build a client-centric, consultative practice before forming Vertex.

Mike holds the CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ certification and is also a Chartered Life Underwriter. He has been an active member of both the Society of Financial Services Professionals and the National Association of Insurance and Financial Advisors. He earned a B.S. in Business & Marketing from Illinois State University. Mike is a lifelong resident of Naperville, Illinois. He and his wife Tanja have three children.