Monthly Market Update for July 2026: AI Volatility, Rising Yields, and Middle East Tensions

Markets experienced a challenging environment in July with major indices ending the month slightly lower. However, this is in the context of healthy year-to-date gains and a broad market that is not far from its all-time high. A number of factors drove day-to-day market moves, including new concerns around AI investments, Treasury yields climbing toward multi-year highs, oil prices rising following a breakdown in the Middle East ceasefire, and the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged.

Many of these events reflect longer-term themes that could continue to drive volatility in the coming months. At the same time, these trends have also propelled markets this year, highlighting the importance of portfolio balance and maintaining a longer-term perspective. What lessons can investors learn from the past month as they navigate the rest of the year?

 

Key Market and Economic Drivers in July

  • The S&P 500 and Nasdaq declined -0.1% and -3.2%, respectively, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3% in July.
  • Volatility jumped in the middle of the month with the VIX index climbing as high as 21 before settling back toward 16.
  • International developed markets returned 1.9% based on the MSCI EAFE Index in U.S. dollar terms, while emerging markets fell -3.3% based on the MSCI EM Index.
  • The 30-year Treasury yield surged to a 19-year high to close around 5.28% and the 10-year Treasury yield ended the month at a peak of 4.74%. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index fell -1.3%.
  • Oil prices rose with Brent crude climbing above $100 before closing at $90 per barrel and WTI at $85 per barrel.
  • The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell just under 100 while the Japanese Yen depreciated significantly, closing around 157. Gold ended the month approximately unchanged at about $4,050 per ounce.
  • Second quarter real GDP growth increased at an annual rate of 1.5%, down from the 2.1% growth recorded in the first quarter of the year.
  • At the July FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve decided to keep rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% in a 9-3 vote.

 

AI investment fuels mixed results across the tech sector

Corporate earnings reports for the second quarter raised new questions around AI investments. This caused market swings, primarily reflecting investor concerns over the free cash flow of large technology companies, often referred to as “hyperscalers.” These companies continue to invest hundreds of billions in new data centers and AI infrastructure, which the market is scrutinizing to determine whether these massive capital expenditures will translate into profits. At the same time, spending on data centers alone has become a meaningful contributor to U.S. economic activity, surpassing all other categories of office construction.1

Concerns over this level of investment are also triggering volatility in international markets, specifically among global semiconductor companies. Major chip suppliers faced sharp corrections during the month, leading the South Korean KOSPI 200 index to fall 24% in July, with continued volatility after a significant run up in 2025. Thus, while AI continues to be a major theme fueling markets, there are also periods of volatility to navigate.

Another AI development in July was the release of a new large language model, Kimi K3, by the Chinese company Moonshot AI.2 This model reportedly competes with the most advanced models from companies such as OpenAI, Anthropic, and Alphabet. It is also “open weight,” meaning that anyone with the right hardware can run the model themselves, in contrast to most frontier models which are proprietary.

So, while last year’s DeepSeek models showed that AI models could be more efficient, Kimi K3 shows that newer open models can be competitive with cutting-edge ones. This creates further uncertainty about the future of the AI industry, both in terms of hardware and infrastructure needs, as well as which country will lead the next phase of AI capabilities.

Additionally, Fitch, the credit rating agency, flagged what it described as “major credit risk” across the AI ecosystem. Their report cited slowing consumer momentum and the highly interconnected nature of financing and supply arrangements among major players.3

For long-term investors, it’s important to remember that the AI theme is only one set of factors driving markets. In fact, the chart above shows that other sectors have performed well this year, including Energy, Industrials, and more. While markets will continue to gauge the long-term economic impact of AI, investors should continue to stay balanced across sectors and asset classes.

 

Middle East conflict briefly pushes oil back above $100

The ongoing conflict in Iran also led to short-term market moves. Tensions reignited mid-month when the U.S. conducted more airstrikes against Iranian military sites, leading to slower traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil. The conflict also expanded when another waterway, the Bab al-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea, also came under fire after Yemen’s Houthi forces struck Saudi Arabian oil tankers.4

In response, Brent crude jumped above $100 briefly before settling back to roughly $90 by month-end. In comparison, oil had fallen to as low as $72 per barrel in early July. Higher energy prices matter for the broader economy because they directly raise fuel costs for households and businesses. Gasoline prices are still hovering around $4.10 per gallon across the country, which could potentially keep headline inflation higher.5

 

The Federal Reserve holds rates amid a divided committee

At its July meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept the federal funds rate unchanged within a range of 3.50% to 3.75%, despite concerns over higher inflation.6 This led to additional market volatility as bond yields rose and investors tried to gauge when the Fed might begin raising rates.

Specifically, new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has intentionally reduced communication around how the Fed may act at future meetings. Not only is the FOMC statement much simpler, but he has avoided questions on how the Fed might react to different economic scenarios. Less “forward guidance” means that investors may be less sure about how the Fed might respond to higher inflation, a slower labor market, and other factors.

The immediate market reaction was a jump in bond yields, with both nominal and real Treasury rates climbing to their highest levels in recent years. Market-based expectations also suggest the Fed could raise rates once by October, and possibly twice by the middle of 2027.

Furthermore, three Fed officials dissented at its latest meeting, meaning they favored a rate increase. This represents a level of internal disagreement that has been rare in recent years – a disagreement of this kind last occurred in September 2016. For markets, this represents a hint as to what the Fed may be considering at upcoming meetings, especially if inflation remains elevated.

For investors, Fed uncertainty could result in greater volatility in yields. At the same time, higher yields represent opportunities for portfolio diversification.

 

New tariffs add more economic uncertainty

New tariffs added further complexity to the economic backdrop in July. After the Supreme Court ruled that last year’s reciprocal tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were illegal, the administration responded by implementing new tariffs under a different trade law, Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. Those tariffs expired in July, resulting in the White House implementing additional new tariffs under different trade rules.

What this boils down to is that many countries now face tariffs ranging from 10% to 12.5%. Additionally, certain countries face much higher rates, including a 50% tariff on certain Canadian goods such as cement, dairy, and alcohol. These tariffs were rolled out under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, citing what the administration described as discriminatory treatment of American products.7

As always, the economic effects of these tariff measures will take time to materialize. The key consideration for long-term investors is that many of the market and economic concerns from tariffs have not played out as some had feared. While tariffs do affect specific industries and consumer prices, companies can also react and adjust their pricing over time. In fact, the economy has grown steadily and the S&P 500 has hit many new all-time highs over the past year.

 

The bottom line?

July reinforced the importance of keeping a long-term perspective. Market challenges can create opportunities for investors who are positioned across different asset classes. Staying focused on the bigger picture, rather than reacting to the news headlines, remains the best way to achieve financial goals.

 

 

References

  1. https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/c30index.html
  2. https://forum.moonshot.ai/t/kimi-k3-is-here-our-most-capable-model/480
  3. https://www.fitchratings.com/research/banks/ai-market-correction-emerging-as-major-credit-risk-27-07-2026
  4. https://apnews.com/article/yemen-saudi-houthis-attack-shipping-red-sea-4e25fbdad821762e478173e6308884fb
  5. https://gasprices.aaa.com/
  6. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260729a.htm
  7. https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2026/07/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-imposes-additional-tariffs-on-canada/

 

Index Descriptions S&P 500

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

Dow Jones

The Dow Jones Industrial Average consists of 30 stocks that are major factors in their industries and widely held by individuals and institutional investors.

NASDAQ

The NASDAQ Composite Index measures all NASDAQ domestic and non-U.S. based common stocks listed on The NASDAQ Stock Market. The market value, the last sale price multiplied by total shares outstanding, is calculated throughout the trading day, and is related to the total value of the Index.

MSCI Emerging Markets Index

The MSCI EM (Emerging Markets) Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization weighted index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of the emerging market countries of the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Asia. The MSCI EM Index consists of the following emerging market country indices: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, Czech Republic, Egypt, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Qatar, Russia, South Africa, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, China, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan, and Thailand.

MSCI EAFE Index

The MSCI EAFE Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the US & Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of the following developed country indices: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the UK.

Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index

The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is an index of the U.S. investment-grade fixed-rate bond market, including both government and corporate bonds.

DXY

The DXY is a U.S. dollar index based on a basket of currencies, including the Euro, Yen, Pound, Canadian Dollar, Swedish Krona and Swiss Franc.

 

 

Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested in directly.

All investing involves risk, including loss of principal. No strategy assures success or protects against loss. The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted, and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.

Copyright (c) 2026 Clearnomics, Inc. All rights reserved. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the other information provided are subject to change without notice. All reports posted on or via www.clearnomics.com or any affiliated websites, applications, or services are issued without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific recipient and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future results. Company fundamentals and earnings may be mentioned occasionally, but should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the company’s stock. Predictions, forecasts, and estimates for any and all markets should not be construed as recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security–including mutual funds, futures contracts, and exchange traded funds, or any similar instruments. The text, images, and other materials contained or displayed in this report are proprietary to Clearnomics, Inc. and constitute valuable intellectual property. All unauthorized reproduction or other use of material from Clearnomics, Inc. shall be deemed willful infringement(s) of this copyright and other proprietary and intellectual property rights, including but not limited to, rights of privacy. Clearnomics, Inc. expressly reserves all rights in connection with its intellectual property, including without limitation the right to block the transfer of its products and services and/or to track usage thereof, through electronic tracking technology, and all other lawful means, now known or hereafter devised. Clearnomics, Inc. reserves the right, without further notice, to pursue to the fullest extent allowed by the law any and all criminal and civil remedies for the violation of its rights.

 

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Peter M. Babilla, CFP®, CRPS®

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Peter Babilla brings 40 years of experience in investment management and fiduciary* financial consulting to Vertex Planning Partners, LLC.

Pete graduated from Indiana University in Bloomington, Indiana with a Bachelor’s of Science in Finance.

He began his career in 1983 with a focus on institutional fixed-income portfolio management, primarily working with community banks. After a decade serving institutional clients, Pete shifted his focus to working with individuals, families and business owners, providing guidance and education in all areas of Wealth Management.  Among his areas of focus are accumulation and retirement planning, investment management, risk management, and estate and wealth transfer.

Pete’s planning philosophy allows him to create a personalized program for clients, based on their own unique goals and circumstances.  The extensive investment and planning platform offered by Vertex enables him to create a highly customized program, tailored to each individual client.

Pete and his wife Suzanne have two children, and have resided in Wheaton, Illinois for the past 30 years.  He enjoys golf, reading, and traveling with his family.  Pete gives back as a past Board Member of the Epilepsy Foundation of Greater Chicago, where his focus is on improving the lives of those living with epilepsy.

Pete works as fiduciary for his clients and holds the CERTIFIED FIANANCIAL PLANNER™ (CFP®) designation and the Chartered Retirement Plan Specialist (CRPS®) designation.

Justin J. D'Agostino, CPWA®, CFP® , TPCP®, ChFC®, CRPC®

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Justin D’Agostino is a Partner and Private Wealth Advisor at Vertex Planning Partners, advising business owners, executives, and high-net-worth families on investments, financial planning, tax and succession planning.

He coordinates the full advisory team around each client to keep tax, investment, and planning decisions moving in the same direction. Justin’s approach centers on rigorous, data-driven analysis — modeling outcomes across planning scenarios so clients can make decisions with clarity.

With over a decade of experience, Justin’s work focuses on:

  • Investment & Portfolio Strategy
  • Tax-Efficient Planning
  • Equity Compensation & Concentrated Stock
  • Retirement & Distribution Planning
  • Estate & Succession Planning

Justin attended Hillsdale College, where he earned his BA in Accounting and Financial Management. He is an avid sports fan and enjoys spending weekends with his family.

Designations:

  • Certified Private Wealth Advisor®
  • CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ Professional
  • Tax Planning Certified Professional®
  • Chartered Financial Consultant®
  • Chartered Retirement Planning Counselor™

 

Justin does not provide tax or legal advice. He works alongside each client’s CPA and attorney on those matters.

CRPC conferred by College for Financial Planning.

Scott A. Sandee CFP®, CIMA®, CPWA®, CEPA

MANAGING PARTNER

Scott Sandee brings over 20 years of experience to his role as Managing Partner of Vertex Planning Partners, leading the firm’s efforts to assist middle-market business owners and eight and nine-figure families in comprehensive planning. We enable clients to achieve their financial goals by tailoring solutions to their unique aspirations and situations. Leveraging his experience in sophisticated investment techniques and financial strategies with privately held family businesses, supported by extensive post-graduate education focused on exit planning, wealth management, estate planning, investment analysis, insurance planning, risk management, and tax optimization, he:

  • Assist owners in preparing for and executing a successful transition.
  • Develop financial strategies to maximize sales proceeds and reduce future taxes.
  • Listen carefully and create personalized solutions that reflect each client’s unique hopes, goals, and concerns.
  • Explain complex and technical concepts with clarity and simplicity.

 

Scott guides successful entrepreneurs and wealthy families through the transfer of ownership of their privately held companies.

Designations: Certified Financial Planner® Certified Private Wealth Advisor® Certified Investment Management Analyst® Certified Exit Planning Advisor Certified Merger & Acquisition Advisor

Julie Hupp CFP®, MBA

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Julie Hupp, CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional, has worked in the accounting and corporate finance field since 1987. She began her career as a CPA with Deloitte & Touche, specializing in the financial needs of small businesses. Then spent the next 13 years in corporate financial planning and business development at Baxter and TAP Pharmaceuticals. Recognizing her passion for personal financial planning, Julie started her business in 2006 where she focuses on comprehensive financial planning strategies and implementation.

Julie graduated from University of Illinois with a BS in Accountancy. She received her Master’s in Management with a concentration in Finance from Northwestern University’s Kellogg School of Management in 1994.

Outside the office, Julie is the co-founder of the 12 Oaks Foundation, which has merged with Cal’s Angels, and is a former Board member. Julie enjoys cooking, reading, running, triathlons and doing almost anything outdoors. A great weekend is spending time with her husband and two adult kids boating at their lake house in Wisconsin.

Steven P. Franzen, CPA, PFS, CGMA

MANAGING PARTNER

Steven P. Franzen, CPA, PFS, CGMA is a public accountant and consultant with more than 23 years of experience helping individuals and businesses reduce their tax liability.  He began his career under the guidance of Patrick M. De Sio, CPA, CGMA and in 1996 became Mr. De Sio’s partner in De Sio, Franzen & Associates, Ltd. Steve’s expertise include entity design, complex tax strategies and multigenerational wealth transfer.  As Managing Partner, Steve conducts his practice under the philosophy that the client’s investment in their CPA should yield a return on that investment – most of the time that return is realized when working with clients on planning for their future. In an effort to increase the planning capabilities of the firm,  Steve formed Vertex Accounting Partners, LLC to ensure their guiding philosophy will continue well into the future.

Steve is a certified public accountant and has earned the professional designations of Personal Financial Specialist and Chartered Global Management Accountant.  He is a member of the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants and the Illinois CPA Society.  Steve earned a B.S. degree in accounting from Millikin University.  He and his wife Kristie live in Sugar Grove, IL with their three children.

Gregory P. Benner, MST, CPWA®, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC®, AIF®, RMA®

MANAGING PARTNER

Greg Benner advises high-net-worth and ultra-high-net-worth business owners, individuals and families on advanced tax, risk management, retirement, estate planning, and wealth strategies.  

As a co-founder of Vertex Planning Partners, he works closely with clients, families, and their professional advisors—CPAs, attorneys, and business stakeholders—to implement thoughtful, durable planning strategies. His approach prioritizes clarity, coordination, and disciplined execution.

For twenty-four years, Greg’s work has focused on designing and coordinating multi-factor, integrated plans involving:

  • Tax Efficiency
  • Wealth Transfer Structures
  • Retirement Planning
  • Investment Strategy, and
  • Long-Term Financial Architecture

 

Drawing from his own experience as a founder, business and real estate investor, and multi-generational family business member, he understands some of the challenges that can arise for business owners as they consider an exit. Multi-disciplinary, intentional planning with stakeholder communication creates structure, mitigates risk, addresses tax implications, and preempts issues that can arise.

Greg holds a Master of Science in Taxation, a graduate program that deepened his technical training in federal income taxation, partnership and corporate taxation, estate and gift tax, and tax procedure. This academic work enhances his ability to help families and business owners navigate complex tax environments and align their financial and estate-planning objectives across generations.

Designations:

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Licenses:

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Greg is deeply committed to lifelong learning and continuous professional development in the areas of tax, estate planning, and private-wealth strategy.

Michael D. Bellis, CFP®, CLU®

MANAGING PARTNER

Michael D. Bellis, CFP®, CLU® began his career as a financial planning professional in 1994. His practice is centered on holistic financial planning, astute risk management strategies and empirical, research-driven portfolio construction. He began his career in partnership with his father under the name Bellis & Associates. Together, their practice and reputation for excellence dates back more than 40 years and includes multiple generations of the same families. After his father’s retirement several years ago, Mike continued to build a client-centric, consultative practice before forming Vertex.

Mike holds the CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ certification and is also a Chartered Life Underwriter. He has been an active member of both the Society of Financial Services Professionals and the National Association of Insurance and Financial Advisors. He earned a B.S. in Business & Marketing from Illinois State University. Mike is a lifelong resident of Naperville, Illinois. He and his wife Tanja have three children.