Jobs, Inflation, and Growth: Is the Economy Healthy?

The health of the economy is important to long-term investors because it drives their portfolios and their financial plans. Recent economic data points have sent mixed signals, leaving some investors unsure of what to make of the current environment.

However, just as a doctor doesn’t diagnose a patient based on a single number, investors should avoid drawing conclusions from any one set of data. After all, blood pressure, heart rate, and other measures all tell part of the story, and what counts as healthy can vary from one person to the next. Similarly, payrolls, inflation, and GDP are all vital signs that together provide a full economic assessment. This not only shifts through the course of the business cycle, but different environments can all support portfolios and financial goals.

Today’s headline numbers are largely healthy: GDP growth is stronger than expected, inflation is slowing, and unemployment remains low by historical standards. However, the labor market tells a more complicated story. While the latest monthly figures were encouraging, hiring over the past year was far weaker than previously believed. For long-term investors, the key is understanding how the data fits together to form a broader perspective, rather than reacting to any single report.

 

The labor market is at an inflection point

Understanding the labor market has been challenging over the past several months due to government shutdowns that delayed data, bad weather, and other factors. For individuals, perhaps the biggest shift is in the balance between job seekers and job openings.

As the accompanying chart above shows, the post-pandemic period experienced several years in which there were more openings than unemployed individuals. This ratio was above one from mid-2021 until last summer, reaching as high as two positions per job seeker in 2022. Today, there are about 7.4 million unemployed Americans but only 6.5 million job openings, the fewest unfilled positions since late 2020.

Still, the January jobs report offered good news by showing that the economy added 130,000 jobs that month, nearly double what economists had expected. Many of these jobs were concentrated in the health care, social assistance, and construction sectors. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.3% from 4.4% and remains near historically low levels. On its own, this could suggest that the labor market is rebounding.

While these numbers are positive, the broader trend has been challenging. Specifically, the Bureau of Labor Statistics published their annual revisions which are based on more accurate data than was available at the time of each monthly report. It showed that the number of jobs created over 2025 was only 181,000, or about 15,000 per month, the weakest annual total since 2020. For context, healthy job gains are typically measured in the millions per year, prior to these revisions.

Why has the overall unemployment rate stayed relatively low despite slower hiring? Part of the answer lies in demographics and immigration. The Census Bureau recently reported a historic decline in net international migration, which fell from a peak of roughly 2.7 million in 2024 to about 1.3 million in 2025, with further declines expected. Additionally, an aging population and lower labor force participation mean there are simply fewer people entering the workforce. In other words, both the supply and demand sides of the labor market are cooling, which has helped keep the unemployment rate from rising.

 

Jobs, inflation, and the broader economy

Investors tend to watch the labor market closely because it is tangible in a way that many other economic indicators are not. Specifically, jobs directly affect household income, consumer confidence, and spending decisions. Consumer spending makes up more than two-thirds of the U.S. GDP, so what happens in the labor market eventually flows through to the broader economy.

However, jobs are only one part of the equation. Other data, including inflation, provide the perspective that the glass might be half full. This is because, until recently, inflation was the biggest challenge for investors and policymakers alike. The latest data show that the Consumer Price Index rose just 2.4% over the past year, while core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, decelerated to 2.5%, the lowest level in nearly five years. One measure of “supercore” inflation, which also excludes shelter, rose only 2.1% over the past twelve months.

This steady deceleration brings the Fed closer to its 2% target and suggests that the inflationary pressures continue to fade. Of course, high prices remain a challenge for many households and retirees since slower inflation doesn’t mean prices will actually come down. Still, the fact that price pressures have been contained is positive for the economy and for portfolios, since inflation can be problematic for both stocks and bonds.

 

What the economic picture means for portfolios

For portfolios, today’s economic environment can be perceived as cautiously positive. The combination of steady growth, cooling inflation, and a softening labor market can create a “Goldilocks” environment that is neither too hot nor too cold. This can benefit both stocks and bonds, especially if it helps to keep interest rates low. The market reaction to the latest employment and inflation data has been a decline in interest rates across the yield curve, with the 10-year Treasury yield just above 4%.

These reports also impact Fed expectations and increase the likelihood of policy cuts later this year. At the moment, market-based measures imply at least two rate cuts this year, and the prospect of a new Fed chair, appointed by President Trump, adds to this possibility.

Lower rates, if they continue, help portfolios because they reduce borrowing costs for businesses and make future corporate earnings more valuable in today’s dollars. Existing bonds also tend to become more valuable when interest rates fall. Even if rates don’t fall further, bonds continue to offer attractive yields and can provide a cushion for long-term investors. Meanwhile, corporate earnings continue to grow, one of the primary factors supporting the broader market over the past year.

 

The bottom line?

The labor market is cooling but the broader economy is healthy. For investors, this mixed backdrop supports a balanced approach and reinforces the importance of long-term thinking when it comes to portfolios and financial plans.

 

 

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All investing involves risk, including loss of principal. No strategy assures success or protects against loss. The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted, and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.

Copyright (c) 2026 Clearnomics, Inc. All rights reserved. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the other information provided are subject to change without notice. All reports posted on or via www.clearnomics.com or any affiliated websites, applications, or services are issued without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular

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Peter M. Babilla, CFP®, CRPS®

PARTNER

Peter Babilla brings 40 years of experience in investment management and fiduciary* financial consulting to Vertex Planning Partners, LLC.

Pete graduated from Indiana University in Bloomington, Indiana with a Bachelor’s of Science in Finance.

He began his career in 1983 with a focus on institutional fixed-income portfolio management, primarily working with community banks. After a decade serving institutional clients, Pete shifted his focus to working with individuals, families and business owners, providing guidance and education in all areas of Wealth Management.  Among his areas of focus are accumulation and retirement planning, investment management, risk management, and estate and wealth transfer.

Pete’s planning philosophy allows him to create a personalized program for clients, based on their own unique goals and circumstances.  The extensive investment and planning platform offered by Vertex enables him to create a highly customized program, tailored to each individual client.

Pete and his wife Suzanne have two children, and have resided in Wheaton, Illinois for the past 30 years.  He enjoys golf, reading, and traveling with his family.  Pete gives back as a past Board Member of the Epilepsy Foundation of Greater Chicago, where his focus is on improving the lives of those living with epilepsy.

Pete works as fiduciary for his clients and holds the CERTIFIED FIANANCIAL PLANNER™ (CFP®) designation and the Chartered Retirement Plan Specialist (CRPS®) designation.

JUSTIN J. D'AGOSTINO, CFP®, TPCP®, ChFC®, CRPC®

PARTNER

Justin D’Agostino joined Vertex Partners in 2019 and serves a select group of business owners and affluent families. He specializes in investments, financial planning, and succession planning. His interest and knowledge in providing comprehensive financial planning and wealth management services to clients was sparked when he worked at a boutique tax and wealth management firm in Michigan. He has nine years of experience in the financial services industry, and his mission is to provide every client with targeted, comprehensive financial advice and to help them implement customized strategies designed to move them closer to accomplishing their unique goals.

Justin attended Hillsdale College where he earned his BA in Accounting and Financial Management and was a member and captain of the football team. Justin is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ Professional, and holds the Tax Planning Certified Professional®, Chartered Financial Consultant® and Chartered Retirement Planning Counselor™ designations.

Justin and his wife, Alexandra, reside in Chicago, Illinois. He is an avid sports fan and enjoys golfing, playing soccer and spending summer weekends with his family.

Scott A. Sandee CFP®, CIMA®, CPWA®, CEPA

MANAGING PARTNER

Scott Sandee brings over 20 years of experience as Managing Partner. He is responsible for leading the firm’s efforts in assisting middle-market business owners and seven and eight-figure families to plan and realize financial goals based on their unique aspirations and situations.

With a privately held family business background, Scott has helped owners prepare for and execute a successful transition. In addition, he works with business owners and their advisors to develop financial strategies to maximize sales proceeds and minimize future taxes.

Before joining Vertex, Scott served in financial planning and investment strategy roles at Oxford Financial Group, Capital Group, and The Northern Trust Company, working with Chicago’s HNW/UHNW families clients.

Scott holds the Certified Financial Planner®, Certified Private Wealth Advisor®, Certified Investment Management Analyst®, and Certified Exit Planning Advisor designations. Scott earned his B.S. in Computer Science from Northern Illinois University, and his family resides in Wilmette, IL.

Julie Hupp CFP®, MBA

PARTNER

Julie Hupp, CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional, has worked in the accounting and corporate finance field since 1987. She began her career as a CPA with Deloitte & Touche, specializing in the financial needs of small businesses. Then spent the next 13 years in corporate financial planning and business development at Baxter and TAP Pharmaceuticals. Recognizing her passion for personal financial planning, Julie started her business in 2006 where she focuses on comprehensive financial planning strategies and implementation.

Julie graduated from University of Illinois with a BS in Accountancy. She received her Master’s in Management with a concentration in Finance from Northwestern University’s Kellogg School of Management in 1994.

Outside the office, Julie is the co-founder of the 12 Oaks Foundation, which has merged with Cal’s Angels, and is a former Board member. Julie enjoys cooking, reading, running, triathlons and doing almost anything outdoors. A great weekend is spending time with her husband and two adult kids boating at their lake house in Wisconsin.

Steven P. Franzen, CPA, PFS, CGMA

MANAGING PARTNER

Steven P. Franzen, CPA, PFS, CGMA is a public accountant and consultant with more than 23 years of experience helping individuals and businesses reduce their tax liability.  He began his career under the guidance of Patrick M. De Sio, CPA, CGMA and in 1996 became Mr. De Sio’s partner in De Sio, Franzen & Associates, Ltd. Steve’s expertise include entity design, complex tax strategies and multigenerational wealth transfer.  As Managing Partner, Steve conducts his practice under the philosophy that the client’s investment in their CPA should yield a return on that investment – most of the time that return is realized when working with clients on planning for their future. In an effort to increase the planning capabilities of the firm,  Steve formed Vertex Accounting Partners, LLC to ensure their guiding philosophy will continue well into the future.

Steve is a certified public accountant and has earned the professional designations of Personal Financial Specialist and Chartered Global Management Accountant.  He is a member of the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants and the Illinois CPA Society.  Steve earned a B.S. degree in accounting from Millikin University.  He and his wife Kristie live in Sugar Grove, IL with their three children.

Gregory P. Benner, CPWA®, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC®, AIF®, RMA®

MANAGING PARTNER

Gregory P. Benner, CPWA®, CFP®, ChFC®, CLU®, AIF®, RMA® has over twenty-two years of experience as a financial advisor. Greg’s practice is based on developing holistic financial plans that help his clients integrate sophisticated retirement, tax, risk management and estate planning strategies into an actionable plan, then stay the course as their behavioral coach.

Prior to founding Vertex Planning Partners, LLC, Greg spent four years as a founding partner of a Registered Investment Advisory firm affiliated with LPL Financial. He also spent seven years with JPMorgan Chase as a Senior Financial Advisor and was a Financial Representative with Northwestern Mutual Life.

Greg holds the Certified Private Wealth Advisor® designation and is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ Certificant. He also holds the Chartered Financial Consultant®, Chartered Life Underwriter®, Accredited Investment Fiduciary™, and Retirement Management AdvisorSM designations. He earned a B.S. in Finance from Miami University and a Master of Science in Taxation (MST) from the University of Cincinnati.

He and his wife Lindsey reside in Naperville, IL with their daughter and twin sons.

Michael D. Bellis, CFP®, CLU®

MANAGING PARTNER

Michael D. Bellis, CFP®, CLU® began his career as a financial planning professional in 1994. His practice is centered on holistic financial planning, astute risk management strategies and empirical, research-driven portfolio construction. He began his career in partnership with his father under the name Bellis & Associates. Together, their practice and reputation for excellence dates back more than 40 years and includes multiple generations of the same families. After his father’s retirement several years ago, Mike continued to build a client-centric, consultative practice before forming Vertex.

Mike holds the CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ certification and is also a Chartered Life Underwriter. He has been an active member of both the Society of Financial Services Professionals and the National Association of Insurance and Financial Advisors. He earned a B.S. in Business & Marketing from Illinois State University. Mike is a lifelong resident of Naperville, Illinois. He and his wife Tanja have three children.