The Role of Dividends as the Fed Cuts Rates

The late Jack Bogle observed that “successful investing is about owning businesses and reaping the huge rewards provided by the dividends and earnings growth of our nation’s—and, for that matter, the world’s—corporations.” This wisdom is relevant today because the benefit of owning stocks is not just about capturing long-run price returns, but also in the dividends corporations pay to investors as they grow their profits.

In today’s environment, the stock market is near all-time highs and dividend yields are near historic lows, estimated at just 1.3% over the next year for the S&P 500. The last time dividend yields were this low was in 2000 during the dot-com bubble. Fed rate cuts and the uncertain interest rate environment also impact how investors can position their portfolios to generate income today.

While dividends are often seen as boring, especially compared to high-flying stocks that attract investor and media attention, the reality is that the role of dividends in portfolios should not be overlooked. Dividend payments compound over time and can provide a steady source of income, especially during periods when stock prices are volatile. Companies that combine both dividend payments and stock prices that rise over long periods (“price appreciation”) can potentially offer investors the best of both worlds: regular cash flow alongside long-term wealth building.

Today’s market reflects a decades-long shift in how companies deploy capital and what investors prioritize. How can investors balance both price returns and dividends in their portfolios today?



How investors view dividends has evolved over the past century

The role of dividends in investing has changed over the past hundred years. For much of the 20th century, dividends were a primary source of stock market returns, with yields often exceeding 5 to 7%. Investors purchased stocks much like they might buy bonds today – primarily for the income they generated. Companies were expected to pay and grow their dividends as proof of financial health, and stock price
appreciation was often considered secondary to dividend income.

This began to change as investors focused more on technology-driven companies and growth. The dot-com era of the 1990s further reduced the focus on dividends as high-growth technology companies not only reinvested their capital, but were often expected to not pay dividends. Stock buybacks also rose in prominence as a more tax-efficient way of returning shareholder capital than dividends.

Today’s low yields reflect this evolution. As the accompanying chart shows, technology-related sectors such as Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Communication Services offer the lowest dividend yields of 0.6%, 0.7%, and 0.8%, respectively. These sectors include the Magnificent 7 stocks which generally pay lower dividends or none at all.

In contrast, sectors such as Real Estate, Energy, and Utilities that have traditionally focused on income generation offer yields above 3%, showing that higher dividends are available by looking across and within different parts of the market.

This pattern of lower dividend yields for the broader market isn’t necessarily a problem since it reflects different market dynamics and business strategies that can benefit investors in unique ways. However, it does highlight the importance of understanding the purpose of dividends for companies, investors, and in portfolios.

Corporate strategy and interest rates affect the attractiveness of dividends

From a company’s perspective, profits can be used in two ways: to reinvest in the business or to return cash to shareholders through dividends. In theory, companies should return cash to investors when they already have enough capital for attractive investment opportunities or when their business model is specifically designed to generate income for shareholders, such as REITs (real estate investment trusts).

However, dividends serve a broader purpose beyond simply returning excess cash. Many corporations pay steady dividends to attract investors and signal financial stability, particularly when they can demonstrate consistent growth in these payments over time. This dividend growth serves as an indicator of corporate health and management confidence in future earnings, beyond just income alone.

Interest rates and the Fed’s monetary policy also affect the attractiveness of dividend-paying stocks. When Treasury yields exceed dividend yields, they reduce the relative attractiveness of these stocks. Currently, with 10-year Treasury yields around 4.1%, government bonds offer substantially higher income than the overall stock market. As the Fed continues to cut policy rates, this dynamic could shift.

The accompanying chart shows a related concept known as the “earnings yield,” sometimes referred to as the “equity risk premium.” This measures how attractive stocks are compared to Treasurys. This downward trend in recent years is a result of stocks climbing to new highs and higher interest rates. The fact that interest rates have hovered in a range more recently is why the relative earnings yield has stabilized this year.

Dividends are an important consideration for investors

For investors, dividends are an integral part of the total returns generated by a portfolio. According to Standard and Poor’s, dividends have contributed 31% of the total return for the S&P 500 since 1926, while price appreciation has contributed 69%.1 Today, everyday investors seem to focus mostly on stock prices except in cases where portfolio income is needed, such as for those nearing or in retirement.

The accompanying chart shows that $1 invested in stocks in 1926 grew to approximately $18,000 by 2025, demonstrating the power of compound growth over long periods. This growth came from both dividends and price appreciation, but the specific mix varied across different time periods. During some decades, dividends provided most of the return. In others, stock price appreciation dominated. What remained constant was the importance of staying invested through various market cycles, regardless of what drove returns.

For investors approaching or in retirement, the focus naturally shifts toward generating current income. However, this doesn’t necessarily mean concentrating exclusively on high-dividend stocks. The risk of “yield chasing” – focusing solely on the highest-yielding investments – is that it can lead to poor diversification, concentration in unsustainable companies and industries, and reduced growth for today’s longer retirements.

Thus, investors should find the appropriate balance of dividends and growth for their financial goals. This “total return” approach helps ensure that portfolios can generate appropriate returns through various market environments, whether through dividends, capital appreciation, or both.

 

The bottom line?

While dividend yields are near historic lows, they continue to play an important role in portfolios. Investors should focus on both price appreciation and dividends as they work toward their financial goals.

 

 

  1. https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/research/research-sp500-dividend-aristocrats.pdf

 

Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested in directly.

All investing involves risk, including loss of principal. No strategy assures success or protects against loss. The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted, and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.

Copyright (c) 2025 Clearnomics, Inc. All rights reserved. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the other information provided are subject to change without notice. All reports posted on or via www.clearnomics.com or any affiliated websites, applications, or services are issued without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific recipient and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future results. Company fundamentals and earnings may be mentioned occasionally, but should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the company’s stock. Predictions, forecasts, and estimates for any and all markets should not be construed as recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security–including mutual funds, futures contracts, and exchange traded funds, or any similar instruments. The text, images, and other materials contained or displayed in this report are proprietary to Clearnomics, Inc. and constitute valuable intellectual property. All unauthorized reproduction or other use of material from Clearnomics, Inc. shall be deemed willful infringement(s) of this copyright and other proprietary and intellectual property rights, including but not limited to, rights of privacy. Clearnomics, Inc. expressly reserves all rights in connection with its intellectual property, including without limitation the right to block the transfer of its products and services and/or to track usage thereof, through electronic tracking technology, and all other lawful means, now known or hereafter devised. Clearnomics, Inc. reserves the right, without further notice, to pursue to the fullest extent allowed by the law any and all criminal and civil remedies for the violation of its rights.

 

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Peter M. Babilla, CFP®, CRPS®

PARTNER

Peter Babilla brings 40 years of experience in investment management and fiduciary* financial consulting to Vertex Planning Partners, LLC.

Pete graduated from Indiana University in Bloomington, Indiana with a Bachelor’s of Science in Finance.

He began his career in 1983 with a focus on institutional fixed-income portfolio management, primarily working with community banks. After a decade serving institutional clients, Pete shifted his focus to working with individuals, families and business owners, providing guidance and education in all areas of Wealth Management.  Among his areas of focus are accumulation and retirement planning, investment management, risk management, and estate and wealth transfer.

Pete’s planning philosophy allows him to create a personalized program for clients, based on their own unique goals and circumstances.  The extensive investment and planning platform offered by Vertex enables him to create a highly customized program, tailored to each individual client.

Pete and his wife Suzanne have two children, and have resided in Wheaton, Illinois for the past 30 years.  He enjoys golf, reading, and traveling with his family.  Pete gives back as a past Board Member of the Epilepsy Foundation of Greater Chicago, where his focus is on improving the lives of those living with epilepsy.

Pete works as fiduciary for his clients and holds the CERTIFIED FIANANCIAL PLANNER™ (CFP®) designation and the Chartered Retirement Plan Specialist (CRPS®) designation.

JUSTIN J. D'AGOSTINO, CFP®, ChFC®, CRPC®

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Justin D’Agostino joined Vertex Partners in 2019 and serves a select group of business owners and affluent families. He specializes in investments, financial planning, and succession planning. His interest and knowledge in providing comprehensive financial planning and wealth management services to clients was sparked when he worked at a boutique tax and wealth management firm in Michigan. He has nine years of experience in the financial services industry, and his mission is to provide every client with targeted, comprehensive financial advice and to help them implement customized strategies designed to move them closer to accomplishing their unique goals.

Justin attended Hillsdale College where he earned his BA in Accounting and Financial Management and was a member and captain of the football team. Justin is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ Professional, holds the Chartered Financial Consultant® and Chartered Retirement Planning Counselor™ designations.

Justin and his wife, Alexandra, reside in Chicago, Illinois. He is an avid sports fan and enjoys golfing, playing soccer and spending summer weekends with his family.

Scott A. Sandee CFP®, CIMA®, CPWA®, CEPA

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Scott Sandee brings over 20 years of experience as Managing Partner. He is responsible for leading the firm’s efforts in assisting middle-market business owners and seven and eight-figure families to plan and realize financial goals based on their unique aspirations and situations.

With a privately held family business background, Scott has helped owners prepare for and execute a successful transition. In addition, he works with business owners and their advisors to develop financial strategies to maximize sales proceeds and minimize future taxes.

Before joining Vertex, Scott served in financial planning and investment strategy roles at Oxford Financial Group, Capital Group, and The Northern Trust Company, working with Chicago’s HNW/UHNW families clients.

Scott holds the Certified Financial Planner®, Certified Private Wealth Advisor®, Certified Investment Management Analyst®, and Certified Exit Planning Advisor designations. Scott earned his B.S. in Computer Science from Northern Illinois University, and his family resides in Wilmette, IL.

Julie Hupp CFP®, MBA

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Julie Hupp, CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional, has worked in the accounting and corporate finance field since 1987. She began her career as a CPA with Deloitte & Touche, specializing in the financial needs of small businesses. Then spent the next 13 years in corporate financial planning and business development at Baxter and TAP Pharmaceuticals. Recognizing her passion for personal financial planning, Julie started her business in 2006 where she focuses on comprehensive financial planning strategies and implementation.

Julie graduated from University of Illinois with a BS in Accountancy. She received her Master’s in Management with a concentration in Finance from Northwestern University’s Kellogg School of Management in 1994.

Outside the office, Julie is the co-founder of the 12 Oaks Foundation, which has merged with Cal’s Angels, and is a former Board member. Julie enjoys cooking, reading, running, triathlons and doing almost anything outdoors. A great weekend is spending time with her husband and two adult kids boating at their lake house in Wisconsin.

Steven P. Franzen, CPA, PFS, CGMA

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Steven P. Franzen, CPA, PFS, CGMA is a public accountant and consultant with more than 23 years of experience helping individuals and businesses reduce their tax liability.  He began his career under the guidance of Patrick M. De Sio, CPA, CGMA and in 1996 became Mr. De Sio’s partner in De Sio, Franzen & Associates, Ltd. Steve’s expertise include entity design, complex tax strategies and multigenerational wealth transfer.  As Managing Partner, Steve conducts his practice under the philosophy that the client’s investment in their CPA should yield a return on that investment – most of the time that return is realized when working with clients on planning for their future. In an effort to increase the planning capabilities of the firm,  Steve formed Vertex Accounting Partners, LLC to ensure their guiding philosophy will continue well into the future.

Steve is a certified public accountant and has earned the professional designations of Personal Financial Specialist and Chartered Global Management Accountant.  He is a member of the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants and the Illinois CPA Society.  Steve earned a B.S. degree in accounting from Millikin University.  He and his wife Kristie live in Sugar Grove, IL with their three children.

Gregory P. Benner, CPWA®, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC®, AIF®, RMA®

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Gregory P. Benner, CPWA®, CFP®, ChFC®, CLU®, AIF®, RMA® has over twenty-two years of experience as a financial advisor. Greg’s practice is based on developing holistic financial plans that help his clients integrate sophisticated retirement, tax, risk management and estate planning strategies into an actionable plan, then stay the course as their behavioral coach.

Prior to founding Vertex Planning Partners, LLC, Greg spent four years as a founding partner of a Registered Investment Advisory firm affiliated with LPL Financial. He also spent seven years with JPMorgan Chase as a Senior Financial Advisor and was a Financial Representative with Northwestern Mutual Life.

Greg holds the Certified Private Wealth Advisor® designation and is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ Certificant. He also holds the Chartered Financial Consultant®, Chartered Life Underwriter®, Accredited Investment Fiduciary™, and Retirement Management AdvisorSM designations. He earned a B.S. in Finance from Miami University.

He and his wife Lindsey reside in Naperville, IL with their daughter and twin sons.

Michael D. Bellis, CFP®, CLU®

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Michael D. Bellis, CFP®, CLU® began his career as a financial planning professional in 1994. His practice is centered on holistic financial planning, astute risk management strategies and empirical, research-driven portfolio construction. He began his career in partnership with his father under the name Bellis & Associates. Together, their practice and reputation for excellence dates back more than 40 years and includes multiple generations of the same families. After his father’s retirement several years ago, Mike continued to build a client-centric, consultative practice before forming Vertex.

Mike holds the CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ certification and is also a Chartered Life Underwriter. He has been an active member of both the Society of Financial Services Professionals and the National Association of Insurance and Financial Advisors. He earned a B.S. in Business & Marketing from Illinois State University. Mike is a lifelong resident of Naperville, Illinois. He and his wife Tanja have three children.