Monthly Market Update for November: Volatility Amid AI and Fed Uncertainty

In November, markets experienced a brief period of volatility that affected many asset classes. While major indices have delivered strong year-to-date returns across stocks, bonds, and international investments, investors continue to worry about artificial intelligence-related stocks and the path of Fed rate cuts. At the same time, the government shutdown delayed the publication of key economic reports, making it more difficult to judge how the economy is doing.

Despite this market volatility, many asset classes stabilized and rebounded by the end of the month. For long-term investors, this underscores the importance of maintaining an appropriate portfolio that can navigate the ups and downs of the market. Successful investing requires staying focused on long-term goals rather than chasing short-term performance or reacting to headlines.

What drove November’s performance and how can investors maintain perspective as we approach the end of the year?

Key Market and Economic Drivers in November

  • The S&P 500 rose slightly by 0.1% in November, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.3%, and the Nasdaq declined 1.5%. Year-to-date, the S&P 500 is up 16.4%, the Dow is up 12.2%, and the Nasdaq is up 21.0%.
  • The VIX, a measure of stock market volatility, finished lower at 16.35 after climbing as high as 26.42 mid-month.
  • The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index rose 0.6% in November but is up 7.5% year-to-date. The 10-year Treasury yield ended the month lower at 4.02%, after briefly falling under 4%.
  • International developed markets gained 0.5% in U.S. dollar terms based on the MSCI EAFE Index, while emerging markets fell 2.5% based on the MSCI EM Index. Year-to-date, the MSCI EAFE Index has gained 24.3% and the MSCI EM Index 27.1%.
  • The U.S. dollar index ended the month at 99.46 and briefly crossed the 100 level.
  • Bitcoin experienced a significant decline of about 17% in November, ending the month at $91,176.
  • Gold prices ended the month higher at $4,218 but still below the October all-time high of$4,336.
  • The September jobs report, which was delayed due to the government shutdown, showed that the economy added 119,000 new jobs and the unemployment rate ticked higher to 4.4% that month. There will be no October jobs report.

 

Markets briefly experienced a “risk off” environment


November saw investors temporarily move away from risk assets such as technology stocks, high-yield bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other investments. This was primarily due to questions around the sustainability of AI investments and investors adjusting their expectations around upcoming Fed rate cuts. There have now been six declines of 5% or worse for the S&P 500 this year, the most since 2022 but still close to the historical average. Some major asset classes rebounded in the final days of the month, and the S&P 500 ended slightly positive.

During the month, AI-related technology stocks experienced their worst week since April. Concerns about their spending and debt levels, profit margins, and questions around a potential bubble created volatility. Yet beneath this, fundamentals remained strong with companies such as Nvidia reporting healthy revenue and earnings growth for the third quarter. Some stocks, including those in the Magnificent 7, rebounded following these reports.

Cryptocurrencies experienced a sharp correction during this risk-off period. Bitcoin fell over 30% from its early October highs above $125,000, briefly trading below $85,000 and wiping out its year-to-date gains. While the adoption of cryptocurrencies by investors has grown, such periods demonstrate that these and similar assets can be highly speculative and prone to boom-and-bust cycles. For this reason, ongoing risk management and maintaining a proper asset allocation continue to be important.

The bond market rose in November, partly driven by a decline in long-term interest rates with the 10-year Treasury yield briefly falling below 4% once again. This was the result of new expectations around government policy which could result in lower rates in the long run. Year-to-date, the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index has gained 7.5%, the best performance since 2020. This has helped provide balance to diversified portfolios.

 

The government shutdown ended but economic uncertainty remains

The longest government shutdown in history ended after 43 days, but the federal government will only be fully funded through the end of January 2026. This means that political uncertainty will be in the headlines again in only a couple of months. That said, markets were generally able to look past the shutdown, even with greater challenges due to a lack of economic data.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the long-awaited September jobs report, which was originally scheduled to be published in October. This report showed that job gains exceeded expectations that month, rebounding from weakness over the summer. However, the revised figures show that 4,000 jobs were lost in August, the second month of negative jobs growth this year. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.4% in September, its highest level since October 2021, although this is still low by historical standards.

A full October jobs report will not be published since surveys of households and businesses were not conducted during that month, but some of the data will be published with November’s report on a delayed basis.

 

Market expectations for the next Fed rate cut have shifted

These data delays mean that the Federal Reserve will enter its mid-December meeting without the full economic picture. Expectations for a rate cut at the next Fed meeting have shifted dramatically, with the probability dropping in mid-November before rebounding once again. At the moment, market-based expectations suggest the Fed will cut rates in December and then again in April or June 2026.

Other economic data, such as consumer confidence, have also worsened. The preliminary estimate of the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment declined from 53.6 to 50.3 in November. This reflects ongoing concerns among Americans about job security, higher prices, and their overall financial situations. While many households are feeling the financial pinch, poor sentiment over the past few years has not translated into reduced spending or corporate revenues.

 

The bottom line?

November’s market volatility and ongoing uncertainty across the economy are reminders that swings in the stock market are normal. Investors should maintain a broader perspective as we approach year end.

 


Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested in directly.

All investing involves risk, including loss of principal. No strategy assures success or protects against loss. The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted, and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.

Copyright (c) 2025 Clearnomics, Inc. All rights reserved. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the other information provided are subject to change without notice. All reports posted on or via www.clearnomics.com or any affiliated websites, applications, or services are issued without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific recipient and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future results. Company fundamentals and earnings may be mentioned occasionally, but should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the company’s stock. Predictions, forecasts, and estimates for any and all markets should not be construed as recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security–including mutual funds, futures contracts, and exchange traded funds, or any similar instruments. The text, images, and other materials contained or displayed in this report are proprietary to Clearnomics, Inc. and constitute valuable intellectual property. All unauthorized reproduction or other use of material from Clearnomics, Inc. shall be deemed willful infringement(s) of this copyright and other proprietary and intellectual property rights, including but not limited to, rights of privacy. Clearnomics, Inc. expressly reserves all rights in connection with its intellectual property, including without limitation the right to block the transfer of its products and services and/or to track usage thereof, through electronic tracking technology, and all other lawful means, now known or hereafter devised. Clearnomics, Inc. reserves the right, without further notice, to pursue to the fullest extent allowed by the law any and all criminal and civil remedies for the violation of its rights.

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Peter M. Babilla, CFP®, CRPS®

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Peter Babilla brings 40 years of experience in investment management and fiduciary* financial consulting to Vertex Planning Partners, LLC.

Pete graduated from Indiana University in Bloomington, Indiana with a Bachelor’s of Science in Finance.

He began his career in 1983 with a focus on institutional fixed-income portfolio management, primarily working with community banks. After a decade serving institutional clients, Pete shifted his focus to working with individuals, families and business owners, providing guidance and education in all areas of Wealth Management.  Among his areas of focus are accumulation and retirement planning, investment management, risk management, and estate and wealth transfer.

Pete’s planning philosophy allows him to create a personalized program for clients, based on their own unique goals and circumstances.  The extensive investment and planning platform offered by Vertex enables him to create a highly customized program, tailored to each individual client.

Pete and his wife Suzanne have two children, and have resided in Wheaton, Illinois for the past 30 years.  He enjoys golf, reading, and traveling with his family.  Pete gives back as a past Board Member of the Epilepsy Foundation of Greater Chicago, where his focus is on improving the lives of those living with epilepsy.

Pete works as fiduciary for his clients and holds the CERTIFIED FIANANCIAL PLANNER™ (CFP®) designation and the Chartered Retirement Plan Specialist (CRPS®) designation.

JUSTIN J. D'AGOSTINO, CFP®, TPCP®, ChFC®, CRPC®

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Justin D’Agostino joined Vertex Partners in 2019 and serves a select group of business owners and affluent families. He specializes in investments, financial planning, and succession planning. His interest and knowledge in providing comprehensive financial planning and wealth management services to clients was sparked when he worked at a boutique tax and wealth management firm in Michigan. He has nine years of experience in the financial services industry, and his mission is to provide every client with targeted, comprehensive financial advice and to help them implement customized strategies designed to move them closer to accomplishing their unique goals.

Justin attended Hillsdale College where he earned his BA in Accounting and Financial Management and was a member and captain of the football team. Justin is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ Professional, and holds the Tax Planning Certified Professional®, Chartered Financial Consultant® and Chartered Retirement Planning Counselor™ designations.

Justin and his wife, Alexandra, reside in Chicago, Illinois. He is an avid sports fan and enjoys golfing, playing soccer and spending summer weekends with his family.

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Scott Sandee brings over 20 years of experience as Managing Partner. He is responsible for leading the firm’s efforts in assisting middle-market business owners and seven and eight-figure families to plan and realize financial goals based on their unique aspirations and situations.

With a privately held family business background, Scott has helped owners prepare for and execute a successful transition. In addition, he works with business owners and their advisors to develop financial strategies to maximize sales proceeds and minimize future taxes.

Before joining Vertex, Scott served in financial planning and investment strategy roles at Oxford Financial Group, Capital Group, and The Northern Trust Company, working with Chicago’s HNW/UHNW families clients.

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Julie Hupp, CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional, has worked in the accounting and corporate finance field since 1987. She began her career as a CPA with Deloitte & Touche, specializing in the financial needs of small businesses. Then spent the next 13 years in corporate financial planning and business development at Baxter and TAP Pharmaceuticals. Recognizing her passion for personal financial planning, Julie started her business in 2006 where she focuses on comprehensive financial planning strategies and implementation.

Julie graduated from University of Illinois with a BS in Accountancy. She received her Master’s in Management with a concentration in Finance from Northwestern University’s Kellogg School of Management in 1994.

Outside the office, Julie is the co-founder of the 12 Oaks Foundation, which has merged with Cal’s Angels, and is a former Board member. Julie enjoys cooking, reading, running, triathlons and doing almost anything outdoors. A great weekend is spending time with her husband and two adult kids boating at their lake house in Wisconsin.

Steven P. Franzen, CPA, PFS, CGMA

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Steven P. Franzen, CPA, PFS, CGMA is a public accountant and consultant with more than 23 years of experience helping individuals and businesses reduce their tax liability.  He began his career under the guidance of Patrick M. De Sio, CPA, CGMA and in 1996 became Mr. De Sio’s partner in De Sio, Franzen & Associates, Ltd. Steve’s expertise include entity design, complex tax strategies and multigenerational wealth transfer.  As Managing Partner, Steve conducts his practice under the philosophy that the client’s investment in their CPA should yield a return on that investment – most of the time that return is realized when working with clients on planning for their future. In an effort to increase the planning capabilities of the firm,  Steve formed Vertex Accounting Partners, LLC to ensure their guiding philosophy will continue well into the future.

Steve is a certified public accountant and has earned the professional designations of Personal Financial Specialist and Chartered Global Management Accountant.  He is a member of the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants and the Illinois CPA Society.  Steve earned a B.S. degree in accounting from Millikin University.  He and his wife Kristie live in Sugar Grove, IL with their three children.

Gregory P. Benner, CPWA®, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC®, AIF®, RMA®

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Gregory P. Benner, CPWA®, CFP®, ChFC®, CLU®, AIF®, RMA® has over twenty-two years of experience as a financial advisor. Greg’s practice is based on developing holistic financial plans that help his clients integrate sophisticated retirement, tax, risk management and estate planning strategies into an actionable plan, then stay the course as their behavioral coach.

Prior to founding Vertex Planning Partners, LLC, Greg spent four years as a founding partner of a Registered Investment Advisory firm affiliated with LPL Financial. He also spent seven years with JPMorgan Chase as a Senior Financial Advisor and was a Financial Representative with Northwestern Mutual Life.

Greg holds the Certified Private Wealth Advisor® designation and is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ Certificant. He also holds the Chartered Financial Consultant®, Chartered Life Underwriter®, Accredited Investment Fiduciary™, and Retirement Management AdvisorSM designations. He earned a B.S. in Finance from Miami University.

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Michael D. Bellis, CFP®, CLU® began his career as a financial planning professional in 1994. His practice is centered on holistic financial planning, astute risk management strategies and empirical, research-driven portfolio construction. He began his career in partnership with his father under the name Bellis & Associates. Together, their practice and reputation for excellence dates back more than 40 years and includes multiple generations of the same families. After his father’s retirement several years ago, Mike continued to build a client-centric, consultative practice before forming Vertex.

Mike holds the CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ certification and is also a Chartered Life Underwriter. He has been an active member of both the Society of Financial Services Professionals and the National Association of Insurance and Financial Advisors. He earned a B.S. in Business & Marketing from Illinois State University. Mike is a lifelong resident of Naperville, Illinois. He and his wife Tanja have three children.